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I mean it isn't the first time that narratives about China's collapse have surfaced; they've been going on since the 2000s. Take anything you read about China o

I mean it isn't the first time that narratives about China's collapse have surfaced; they've been going on since the 2000s. Take anything you read about China on western boards with a pinch of salt; vice versa for the other side too.

AussieWog93 3y ago
It's the first time we've had some serious quantitative data behind it, though. There are good indicators that an economic stagnation or recession are coming, and that could potentially hurt the CCP long term.
- oreally 3y ago
  What are you talking about? Data has been collected since they opened up, enough for people to be writing books on it like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Coming_Collapse_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Coming_Collapse_of_China Now are you going to say the data collected before is unreliable somehow and this time it's reliable?
- Animats 3y ago
  China had a real estate bubble fueled by overbuilding, and it collapsed. Nobody is quite sure what happens after that. The economic system is so different that the aftereffects aren't clear.
  - defrost 3y ago
    I can't find the paper ATM - but this was discussed by an Australian group (ASPI adjacent) tasked with China watching eight years (? ish ?) ago .. and as I recall it played out more or less as they predicted. China central planning pushed for and encouraged 'over buiding' for efficiency and surplus, doing bulk deals on concrete, streamlining steel creation from iron ore, etc. If you put aside the traditional western stock market view of companies trading in the building domain (which grew and collapsed) and look at it as state planning for bulk efficiences of scale it perhaps makes more sense. Right now it makes sense to look at what the next five to ten year state backed push will be as we might anticipate more "one foot in the free market" bubble like growth there.
jamesaurichs 3y ago
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- oreally 3y ago
  Imagine having such a superiority complex thinking that China's survival hinges entirely on western investment and graces. That's some jingoism right there.
  - jamesaurichs 3y ago
    Yeah, I'm sorry to break a nationalist's heart. China needs foreign investment to survive, otherwise its 22% youth unemployment rate, 3 of its biggest real estate companies being bankrupt, local government's $12 trillion debt, 600M citizens on $140/month income will just get worse. But those investments are now gone forever.
    - oreally 3y ago
      Nah I'm no nationalist. Just trying to provide balanced views. > But those investments are now gone forever. Can bet there will still be investors coming in to fill the void.
- hnfong 3y ago
  I don't know about the others, but I'd contest the claim about Cathie Wood.
- dang 3y ago
  We've banned this account because it's consistently been breaking the HN guidelines. Please don't create accounts to break HN's rules with. If you don't want to be banned, you're welcome to email hn@ycombinator.com and give us reason to believe that you'll follow the rules in the future: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. That means, among other things, using HN for curious conversation rather than ideological battle.
isaacfung 3y ago
I know. I live in Hong Kong. Some of these are worrying but a few of them seem questionable. From what I can find, the previous asian games opening also wasn't attended by many world leaders. It's not Olympic. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Asian_Games_opening_ceremony https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Asian_Games_opening_cer...

AussieWog93 3y ago

It's the first time we've had some serious quantitative data behind it, though. There are good indicators that an economic stagnation or recession are coming, and that could potentially hurt the CCP long term.

oreally 3y ago
What are you talking about? Data has been collected since they opened up, enough for people to be writing books on it like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Coming_Collapse_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Coming_Collapse_of_China Now are you going to say the data collected before is unreliable somehow and this time it's reliable?
Animats 3y ago
China had a real estate bubble fueled by overbuilding, and it collapsed. Nobody is quite sure what happens after that. The economic system is so different that the aftereffects aren't clear.
- defrost 3y ago
  I can't find the paper ATM - but this was discussed by an Australian group (ASPI adjacent) tasked with China watching eight years (? ish ?) ago .. and as I recall it played out more or less as they predicted. China central planning pushed for and encouraged 'over buiding' for efficiency and surplus, doing bulk deals on concrete, streamlining steel creation from iron ore, etc. If you put aside the traditional western stock market view of companies trading in the building domain (which grew and collapsed) and look at it as state planning for bulk efficiences of scale it perhaps makes more sense. Right now it makes sense to look at what the next five to ten year state backed push will be as we might anticipate more "one foot in the free market" bubble like growth there.

jamesaurichs 3y ago

[dead]

oreally 3y ago
Imagine having such a superiority complex thinking that China's survival hinges entirely on western investment and graces. That's some jingoism right there.
- jamesaurichs 3y ago
  Yeah, I'm sorry to break a nationalist's heart. China needs foreign investment to survive, otherwise its 22% youth unemployment rate, 3 of its biggest real estate companies being bankrupt, local government's $12 trillion debt, 600M citizens on $140/month income will just get worse. But those investments are now gone forever.
  - oreally 3y ago
    Nah I'm no nationalist. Just trying to provide balanced views. > But those investments are now gone forever. Can bet there will still be investors coming in to fill the void.
hnfong 3y ago
I don't know about the others, but I'd contest the claim about Cathie Wood.
dang 3y ago
We've banned this account because it's consistently been breaking the HN guidelines. Please don't create accounts to break HN's rules with. If you don't want to be banned, you're welcome to email hn@ycombinator.com and give us reason to believe that you'll follow the rules in the future: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. That means, among other things, using HN for curious conversation rather than ideological battle.

isaacfung 3y ago

I know. I live in Hong Kong. Some of these are worrying but a few of them seem questionable. From what I can find, the previous asian games opening also wasn't attended by many world leaders. It's not Olympic. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Asian_Games_opening_ceremony https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Asian_Games_opening_cer...