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The Permian Basin in Texas, which has provided most of the oil supply growth for the last decade, is starting to slowly decline from its peak. Let's say that c
by narrator 3y ago
The Permian Basin in Texas, which has provided most of the oil supply growth for the last decade, is starting to slowly decline from its peak. Let's say that climate change is a nice way to tell people that we're running out of oil. Why would you want to do that? You'd want to say that energy demand is the problem, not energy supply. Thus, we need to get people to cut back on their usage and come together in a global rules based order to implement that. Telling the world we are running out of oil will encourage hyper-nationalism and cause the oil exporters to prematurely starve the rest of the world in an every nation for itself war of all against all.
What would be the tells that oil supply depletion is what's really going on?
Electrification of transport would be a high priority.
Carbon credits would be likely BS and half-hearted and nobody would check.
China would build 6x more coal plants than the rest of the world combined[1] and encourage reduction in coal usage in other countries to provide a more ample supply[2].
[1] https://www.npr.org/2023/03/02/1160441919/china-is-building-six-times-more-new-coal-plants-than-other-countries-report-fin https://www.npr.org/2023/03/02/1160441919/china-is-building-...
[2] https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/china-urges-europe-take-positive-steps-climate-change-2022-09-22/ https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/china-urges-eur...
- Telemakhos 3y agoI've thought along these lines too. Any time the possibility of scarcity it publicized, panic buying makes the problem far worse than it needs to be, as in the looming rice shortage or the recent toilet paper shortages. Oil is the lifeblood of industrial civilization, needed for everything from energy to raw materials; panic in the oil markets would threaten industrial civilization.
- breezeTrowel 3y agoNot sure I follow this narrative regarding China building a ton of coal plants being a signal for oil shortage. Can you elaborate? There aren't any power plants that run on oil there and the whole thing seems like a move away from hydroelectric power which has been severely weakened due to drought.
- narrator 3y agoIf climate change is the motivation for the great energy transition, then China would build a lot of coal plants to prepare for running out of oil and an enormous need for new sources of electricity in order to expand electrification of transport and possibly hydrogen production for long range air travel and other applications where electrification to replace oil is impractical. They wouldn't be concerned at all about the carbon emission impact of their coal plants and would simultaneously encourage the west to stop building coal plants so they could get a cheaper supply.