3 ms·

You're completely ignoring China in this picture, which is by far the largest market for cars and where EVs already reached 22% market share last year. There's

by Tade0 3y ago

You're completely ignoring China in this picture, which is by far the largest market for cars and where EVs already reached 22% market share last year. There's already a price war going on there, so the question isn't how long western manufacturers will be able to produce combustion cars, but will they survive the deluge of competitively priced Chinese EVs. The solar panel market did not and is now almost fully controlled by China.

oblio 3y ago
In my opinion what will happen is old fashioned protectionism. Western governments are still kind of dumb but they're wisening up. The US for example does it through incentives: if the car AND the batteries have been built in the US, the car is cheaper. Just the car was built in the US? Lower subsidy, more expensive car. Nothing built in the US? 0 subsidy, much more expensive car. The EU will probably do the same within max 5 years, European car brands are about to be wiped up if they don't, just like: * Nokia * Siemens * Ericsson * Alcatel * Sagem * ... etc were wiped out by Asian phone manufacturers.
- scns 3y ago
  Nokias phone business was destroyed by that manager they brought in from Microsoft. He held a speech where he called the company "a burning platform" on which they are standing. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2011/feb/09/nokia-burning-platform-memo-elop https://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2011/feb/09/noki...
  - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
    Nokia were already on a path of self-destruction before Elop was hired. Also, nobody forced them to hire Stephen Elop, it was their decision to hire someone totally unfit. As a company you bear the consequences of who you appoint as your CEO.
- FirmwareBurner 3y ago
  To be fair, only the consumer facing operations of those brands have been wiped out, same as with Motorola, but their enterprise/network-infrastructure businesses from Nokia, Siemens, Ericsson, Alcatel still exists, and Sagem is still in the military business (as part of Thales). However, the big issue is that those companies don't see much growth or sensible profit margins anymore compared to what US tech companies are raking in, fact reflected in their sweatshop salaries as well (I interviewed for Nokia and Ericsson a few years back). In a sad way they're a direct reflection of the EU economy: stagnation and lack of future prospects. Yes I know of ASML and German mittle-stand but they alone can't competitively support the entire EU economy the same way US tech companies do.
  - oblio 3y ago
    > only the consumer facing operations of those brands have been wiped out So, like 90% of the income and profits for a hardware company?
    - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
      Pretty much yes.
      - oblio 3y ago
        The is the "only" warranted? :-)
- niclo 3y ago
  > The EU will probably do the same within max 5 years, European car brands are about to be wiped up if they don't Currently chinese cars are perceived as super low quality and the only strong selling point they have is the price, as they had when Huawei, Xiaomi and other brands entered the smartphone market. If I look at BYD catalogue in the italian website I can see: - the Dolphin starting from about 36k€ when there's the Peugeot e2008 starting from 31k€ and FIAT 600 starting from 31k€ as well - the Atto 3 starting from about 42k€ when rumors say the Peugeot e3008 will start from about 46k€ - two higher end models which are perfectly matched by BMW offerings at the same price and with comparable performance, not even looking at other premium brands such as Audi or Mercedes I specifically made the comparison with BYD but I'm happy to give a look at other brands you could suggest. Even considering chinese carmakers pricing power and old school carmakers lagging behind, I honestly can't see anything disrupting here. ps: Asian phone manufacturers is much different from China phone manufacturers given that in EU all put together they barely reach Samsung market share. On the same note, let's not forget there are many established asian carmakers outside China ready to take their slice of the cake.
  - oblio 3y ago
    > ps: Asian phone manufacturers is much different from China phone manufacturers given that in EU all put together they barely reach Samsung market share. Huawei was taking off like a rocket in Europe before the US kneecapped them. > Currently chinese cars are perceived as super low quality and the only strong selling point they have is the price, as they had when Huawei, Xiaomi and other brands entered the smartphone market. That's always step 1, exactly what Japan (60s, 80s) and Korea (90s, 00s) did. They all move up after a while. Japan, especially, smashed US car companies.
    - niclo 3y ago
      Yes of course, but today's japanese and korean cars are well renowned and considered top in class, what about Xiaomi and other chinese smartphone brands ? Severely lagging behind Apple and Samsung and price-to-quality ratio it's kinda meh, completely different evolution.
epolanski 3y ago
Just because someone else has a different take on the market it doesn't mean that he's wrong. I didn't ignore China, or US, I stated that on average most cars in the world sold globally will still be ICE-powered for a long time to come due to electricity constraints (and quite high EV costs that aren't gonna fall anytime soon). This is especially true about Japan which the comment was speaking of. > The solar panel market did not and is now almost fully controlled by China. Another take that misses the forest for the trees: China controls large parts of manufacturing globally regardless of sector, that's true for advanced electronics (80% of the components and assembly of your Apple stuff is made there) to the toys you buy your kids to the apparel you wear (e.g. 70% of Nike apparel is produced in China). They have low labor cost, insanely good infrastructure and logistics, cheap energy and weak labor rights. You're not gonna outcompete them on manufacturing.
- ben_bai 3y ago
  > They have low labor cost, insanely good infrastructure and logistics, cheap energy and weak labor rights. You're not gonna outcompete them on manufacturing. Sorry to bust your bubble but that has slowly been changing. Mexico and India is the new China, or at least they will be very soon. For years, wages in China were much lower than Mexico's. Now, Mexico's manufacturing labor costs are 20% lower than in China. When adjusted for worker productivity, the gap is even wider. And India is getting there, too.
- Tade0 3y ago
  > I stated that on average most cars in the world sold globally will still be ICE-powered for a long time to come due to electricity constraints China isn't pushing for EVs because they care about the planet or whatnot, but because it's much easier for them to increase electricity production than import more oil. In 2022 they added around 87GW worth of solar panels, the annual electricity production of which would be enough to charge 36mln EVs. And that's just solar, which may or may not be utilized fully. The additions in coal alone are enough to power a 100% EV fleet of new cars. > China controls large parts of manufacturing globally regardless of sector, that's true for advanced electronics That wasn't the case for solar panels as recently as in 2003, when it was Germany and Japan that combined controlled most of the market - both in sales and production capacity: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Largest_Producers_of_Solar_Cells_by_Country-Market_Share.svg https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Largest_Producers_of_So... Cars will follow the same trajectory unless western manufacturers get their heads out of their asses and do something. So far only Tesla seems to be.

by Tade0 3y ago

oblio 3y ago

In my opinion what will happen is old fashioned protectionism. Western governments are still kind of dumb but they're wisening up. The US for example does it through incentives: if the car AND the batteries have been built in the US, the car is cheaper. Just the car was built in the US? Lower subsidy, more expensive car. Nothing built in the US? 0 subsidy, much more expensive car. The EU will probably do the same within max 5 years, European car brands are about to be wiped up if they don't, just like: * Nokia * Siemens * Ericsson * Alcatel * Sagem * ... etc were wiped out by Asian phone manufacturers.

scns 3y ago
Nokias phone business was destroyed by that manager they brought in from Microsoft. He held a speech where he called the company "a burning platform" on which they are standing. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2011/feb/09/nokia-burning-platform-memo-elop https://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2011/feb/09/noki...
- FirmwareBurner 3y ago
  Nokia were already on a path of self-destruction before Elop was hired. Also, nobody forced them to hire Stephen Elop, it was their decision to hire someone totally unfit. As a company you bear the consequences of who you appoint as your CEO.
FirmwareBurner 3y ago
To be fair, only the consumer facing operations of those brands have been wiped out, same as with Motorola, but their enterprise/network-infrastructure businesses from Nokia, Siemens, Ericsson, Alcatel still exists, and Sagem is still in the military business (as part of Thales). However, the big issue is that those companies don't see much growth or sensible profit margins anymore compared to what US tech companies are raking in, fact reflected in their sweatshop salaries as well (I interviewed for Nokia and Ericsson a few years back). In a sad way they're a direct reflection of the EU economy: stagnation and lack of future prospects. Yes I know of ASML and German mittle-stand but they alone can't competitively support the entire EU economy the same way US tech companies do.
- oblio 3y ago
  > only the consumer facing operations of those brands have been wiped out So, like 90% of the income and profits for a hardware company?
  - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
    Pretty much yes.
    - oblio 3y ago
      The is the "only" warranted? :-)
niclo 3y ago
> The EU will probably do the same within max 5 years, European car brands are about to be wiped up if they don't Currently chinese cars are perceived as super low quality and the only strong selling point they have is the price, as they had when Huawei, Xiaomi and other brands entered the smartphone market. If I look at BYD catalogue in the italian website I can see: - the Dolphin starting from about 36k€ when there's the Peugeot e2008 starting from 31k€ and FIAT 600 starting from 31k€ as well - the Atto 3 starting from about 42k€ when rumors say the Peugeot e3008 will start from about 46k€ - two higher end models which are perfectly matched by BMW offerings at the same price and with comparable performance, not even looking at other premium brands such as Audi or Mercedes I specifically made the comparison with BYD but I'm happy to give a look at other brands you could suggest. Even considering chinese carmakers pricing power and old school carmakers lagging behind, I honestly can't see anything disrupting here. ps: Asian phone manufacturers is much different from China phone manufacturers given that in EU all put together they barely reach Samsung market share. On the same note, let's not forget there are many established asian carmakers outside China ready to take their slice of the cake.
- oblio 3y ago
  > ps: Asian phone manufacturers is much different from China phone manufacturers given that in EU all put together they barely reach Samsung market share. Huawei was taking off like a rocket in Europe before the US kneecapped them. > Currently chinese cars are perceived as super low quality and the only strong selling point they have is the price, as they had when Huawei, Xiaomi and other brands entered the smartphone market. That's always step 1, exactly what Japan (60s, 80s) and Korea (90s, 00s) did. They all move up after a while. Japan, especially, smashed US car companies.
  - niclo 3y ago
    Yes of course, but today's japanese and korean cars are well renowned and considered top in class, what about Xiaomi and other chinese smartphone brands ? Severely lagging behind Apple and Samsung and price-to-quality ratio it's kinda meh, completely different evolution.

epolanski 3y ago

Just because someone else has a different take on the market it doesn't mean that he's wrong. I didn't ignore China, or US, I stated that on average most cars in the world sold globally will still be ICE-powered for a long time to come due to electricity constraints (and quite high EV costs that aren't gonna fall anytime soon). This is especially true about Japan which the comment was speaking of. > The solar panel market did not and is now almost fully controlled by China. Another take that misses the forest for the trees: China controls large parts of manufacturing globally regardless of sector, that's true for advanced electronics (80% of the components and assembly of your Apple stuff is made there) to the toys you buy your kids to the apparel you wear (e.g. 70% of Nike apparel is produced in China). They have low labor cost, insanely good infrastructure and logistics, cheap energy and weak labor rights. You're not gonna outcompete them on manufacturing.

ben_bai 3y ago
> They have low labor cost, insanely good infrastructure and logistics, cheap energy and weak labor rights. You're not gonna outcompete them on manufacturing. Sorry to bust your bubble but that has slowly been changing. Mexico and India is the new China, or at least they will be very soon. For years, wages in China were much lower than Mexico's. Now, Mexico's manufacturing labor costs are 20% lower than in China. When adjusted for worker productivity, the gap is even wider. And India is getting there, too.
Tade0 3y ago
> I stated that on average most cars in the world sold globally will still be ICE-powered for a long time to come due to electricity constraints China isn't pushing for EVs because they care about the planet or whatnot, but because it's much easier for them to increase electricity production than import more oil. In 2022 they added around 87GW worth of solar panels, the annual electricity production of which would be enough to charge 36mln EVs. And that's just solar, which may or may not be utilized fully. The additions in coal alone are enough to power a 100% EV fleet of new cars. > China controls large parts of manufacturing globally regardless of sector, that's true for advanced electronics That wasn't the case for solar panels as recently as in 2003, when it was Germany and Japan that combined controlled most of the market - both in sales and production capacity: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Largest_Producers_of_Solar_Cells_by_Country-Market_Share.svg https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Largest_Producers_of_So... Cars will follow the same trajectory unless western manufacturers get their heads out of their asses and do something. So far only Tesla seems to be.