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Meanwhile in Japan I can't buy a 4WD mini van that's fully electric, one of the most common petrol car form factors in Japan. They can't even do the basics in t

Meanwhile in Japan I can't buy a 4WD mini van that's fully electric, one of the most common petrol car form factors in Japan. They can't even do the basics in their own home market. Good luck Toyota, you will need it.

epolanski 3y ago
I think yours is a very blind take. The Japanese auto industry deliberately decided to put the emphasis on hybrid technologies before EVs. - the overwhelming amount of the world does not and will not have infrastructure to support that many EVs for quite some time. Energy-starved countries such as most of Europe bar some like Scotland or Norway are already unable to cope with the current electricity demand. Japan itself has a grid that's isolated from the rest of the world and even internally it has several design issues (east and south grids run at different frequencies, 50 vs 60hz) that prevents them from scaling - for the aforementioned reasons, demand for petrol cars is going to be still high for decades to come in most of the world.. Not only most, if virtually all, automakers already have EVs out there, but the technology evolves at such a rapid pace, that waiting before converting is quite sensible. Don't forget that the investments required in EV world are much smaller in comparison to producing ICE-powered machines. There's lots of know how involved in those, and developing an ICE costs multiple billions. E.g. The OM654 Mercedes diesel engine costed more than 3 billions in R&D and benefitted from lots of know-how Mercedes possessed by decades. Thinking that legacy automakers will struggle in the transition is a rather blind take. Yes, many won't enjoy such a market dominance as they did, but that's mostly related to how relatively easy (compared to ICEs) it is to create an EV startup and offer something that others don't. On a much smaller scale the auto industry will see the same disruption that the gaming one saw with indie video games.
- KingOfCoders 3y ago
  How is Germany "unable to cope with the current electricity demand"? People use solar power to power their EVs here (We have solar power but no car).
  - epolanski 3y ago
    That's a cherry picked stat, isn't it? Your country is also increasing its coal output and the output of energy produced by coal in double digits and out wiping villages such as Lutzerah to create some of the biggest coal mines in the world. Yes, you are energy starved too. Also, how there's no EVs? From all WV brands including Skoda to luxury makers from Mercedes to Porsche, *all* of your automakers have multiple EVs sitting in your dealerships.
    - ben_bai 3y ago
      Also, 30% of new car purchases in 2023 were EVs (in Germany)
    - Tade0 3y ago
      > Your country is also increasing its coal output and the output of energy produced by coal in double digits That's only true if you look at the data from 2020 onwards. In reality coal usage for electricity, regardless of type, peaked years ago and never recovered: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/gallery_image/public/paragraphs/images/fig2-gross-power-production-germany-1990-2022.png https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/g...
  - pbmonster 3y ago
    Electricity is over 30 ct/kWh in Germany, and short-term, they will be unable to offer it much cheaper. Does that mean black-outs and people not getting electricity? No, but at those prices, heavy industry like steel mills and aluminum foundries will have to move abroad. And it won't get better with the numbers of EVs on the roads going up. Germany burns around 50M tons of gasoline per year. If you want to replace that with electricity, you need to install tens of gigawatts of additional powerplant capacity - and that's not "peak capacity" renewable plants advertise. Real, 24h-capacity. And that's not looking good, either. Thanks to all the NIMBYs, the actual number of megawatt turbines being built is shameful.
    - ZeroGravitas 3y ago
      About half of that is taxes and they are currently proposing to drop it to the minimum allowed under EU rules > The absolute bottom rate for electricity taxation is €0.5 per Megawatt-hour (MWh) compared to today’s rate of €20.5 per MWh – meaning the envisaged reduction could reach about 95%. https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/berlin-considers-slashing-electricity-tax-by-95-to-boost-heat-pump-uptake/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/ber...
- Tade0 3y ago
  You're completely ignoring China in this picture, which is by far the largest market for cars and where EVs already reached 22% market share last year. There's already a price war going on there, so the question isn't how long western manufacturers will be able to produce combustion cars, but will they survive the deluge of competitively priced Chinese EVs. The solar panel market did not and is now almost fully controlled by China.
  - oblio 3y ago
    In my opinion what will happen is old fashioned protectionism. Western governments are still kind of dumb but they're wisening up. The US for example does it through incentives: if the car AND the batteries have been built in the US, the car is cheaper. Just the car was built in the US? Lower subsidy, more expensive car. Nothing built in the US? 0 subsidy, much more expensive car. The EU will probably do the same within max 5 years, European car brands are about to be wiped up if they don't, just like: * Nokia * Siemens * Ericsson * Alcatel * Sagem * ... etc were wiped out by Asian phone manufacturers.
    - scns 3y ago
      Nokias phone business was destroyed by that manager they brought in from Microsoft. He held a speech where he called the company "a burning platform" on which they are standing. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2011/feb/09/nokia-burning-platform-memo-elop https://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2011/feb/09/noki...
      - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
        Nokia were already on a path of self-destruction before Elop was hired. Also, nobody forced them to hire Stephen Elop, it was their decision to hire someone totally unfit. As a company you bear the consequences of who you appoint as your CEO.
    - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
      To be fair, only the consumer facing operations of those brands have been wiped out, same as with Motorola, but their enterprise/network-infrastructure businesses from Nokia, Siemens, Ericsson, Alcatel still exists, and Sagem is still in the military business (as part of Thales). However, the big issue is that those companies don't see much growth or sensible profit margins anymore compared to what US tech companies are raking in, fact reflected in their sweatshop salaries as well (I interviewed for Nokia and Ericsson a few years back). In a sad way they're a direct reflection of the EU economy: stagnation and lack of future prospects. Yes I know of ASML and German mittle-stand but they alone can't competitively support the entire EU economy the same way US tech companies do.
- theshrike79 3y ago
  Not just a weird mix of 50/60Hz they also have a single phase grid that's definitely not capable of home-charging EVs. America is pretty bad, but at least you have split-phase.
  - bamboozled 3y ago
    Weird, because I know people who own EVs and charge them? Do you mean at scale?
    - theshrike79 3y ago
      I can get 11kW of 3-phase power to charge my car from the garage of my Grandma's house, that was built in the late 50's. I could do up to 22kW, but pretty much no EV supports 22kW AC charging (weird patent stuff IIRC). I can also charge at 2.7kW from a regular Schuko outlet. The single-phase thing is why electric kettles aren't a thing in the US, you just can't provide enough power for them to be usable. IIRC the maximum for US outlets is around 1.5kW, (most?) European plugs can provide around 2.3-2.7kW.
- bamboozled 3y ago
  Sorry what is blind about my take? I'm honestly interested. I don't see much in your response that proves my take is blind. The article is titled: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD, is this not an omission they slept on the starting line? Then: It is also jointly developing EV versions of mini commercial vehicles with Suzuki Motor and subsidiary Daihatsu Motor. Which is exactly the type of car I've been interested in buying, so I guess they too see the gap in the market now, but have done little too fill it. BYD will likely enter this space before Toyota. The only thing that will stop that is protectionism, which Japan is good at, so it might work out for Toyota. The only one who is blind here is Toyota, they fucked up good and now they have to "chase" the competition. Also the power grid isn't Toyota's problem, it's the Japanese governments problem, and Toyota and all the other major Japanese car manufacturers should've had the foresight to work with the government to address this issue 5-10 years ago, not now. Now it's too late. They will likely be destroyed by Tesla and BYD because of their unwillingness to adapt. Toyota are dinosaurs now and the fact the government didn't work to update the grid means the entire Japanese economy will be at the mercy of oil prices, or will lose crazy amounts of money subsidizing the prices because the price of oil will only continue to increase as economies of scale start to shift towards EVs and away from ICE and petroleum.
cjrp 3y ago
Does seem like the kei car/truck/van market would do quite well with full-EV. Lightweight, low speeds, short trip distances.
- bamboozled 3y ago
  A friend just bought a Mitsubishi EV kei van, it's an absolutely amazing car. I rode it in the other day and how I felt afterwards was betrayed. Betrayed that it was the most superior passenger experience I can remember, no noise, no smell, awesome acceleration, regenerative breaking, solar charged. I want one...the trouble is that we live in an area with snow and a 4WD is important and they only do a 2WD for now. We've been ripped off as consumers for way too long.
fomine3 3y ago
JDM minivan is one of the most difficult form factor for BEV because it's extremely optimized for internal space. It's better for Toyota to release and sell more SUV BEVs on foreign markets to compete. JDM minivan would be the released slowly because there's no BEV competitor in foreseeable future. Imported vans has been a joke for Japanese passengers, but I'd like to see how Chinese minivans does well (or not, maybe too big for Japan).

epolanski 3y ago

I think yours is a very blind take. The Japanese auto industry deliberately decided to put the emphasis on hybrid technologies before EVs. - the overwhelming amount of the world does not and will not have infrastructure to support that many EVs for quite some time. Energy-starved countries such as most of Europe bar some like Scotland or Norway are already unable to cope with the current electricity demand. Japan itself has a grid that's isolated from the rest of the world and even internally it has several design issues (east and south grids run at different frequencies, 50 vs 60hz) that prevents them from scaling - for the aforementioned reasons, demand for petrol cars is going to be still high for decades to come in most of the world.. Not only most, if virtually all, automakers already have EVs out there, but the technology evolves at such a rapid pace, that waiting before converting is quite sensible. Don't forget that the investments required in EV world are much smaller in comparison to producing ICE-powered machines. There's lots of know how involved in those, and developing an ICE costs multiple billions. E.g. The OM654 Mercedes diesel engine costed more than 3 billions in R&D and benefitted from lots of know-how Mercedes possessed by decades. Thinking that legacy automakers will struggle in the transition is a rather blind take. Yes, many won't enjoy such a market dominance as they did, but that's mostly related to how relatively easy (compared to ICEs) it is to create an EV startup and offer something that others don't. On a much smaller scale the auto industry will see the same disruption that the gaming one saw with indie video games.

KingOfCoders 3y ago
How is Germany "unable to cope with the current electricity demand"? People use solar power to power their EVs here (We have solar power but no car).
- epolanski 3y ago
  That's a cherry picked stat, isn't it? Your country is also increasing its coal output and the output of energy produced by coal in double digits and out wiping villages such as Lutzerah to create some of the biggest coal mines in the world. Yes, you are energy starved too. Also, how there's no EVs? From all WV brands including Skoda to luxury makers from Mercedes to Porsche, *all* of your automakers have multiple EVs sitting in your dealerships.
  - ben_bai 3y ago
    Also, 30% of new car purchases in 2023 were EVs (in Germany)
  - Tade0 3y ago
    > Your country is also increasing its coal output and the output of energy produced by coal in double digits That's only true if you look at the data from 2020 onwards. In reality coal usage for electricity, regardless of type, peaked years ago and never recovered: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/gallery_image/public/paragraphs/images/fig2-gross-power-production-germany-1990-2022.png https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/g...
- pbmonster 3y ago
  Electricity is over 30 ct/kWh in Germany, and short-term, they will be unable to offer it much cheaper. Does that mean black-outs and people not getting electricity? No, but at those prices, heavy industry like steel mills and aluminum foundries will have to move abroad. And it won't get better with the numbers of EVs on the roads going up. Germany burns around 50M tons of gasoline per year. If you want to replace that with electricity, you need to install tens of gigawatts of additional powerplant capacity - and that's not "peak capacity" renewable plants advertise. Real, 24h-capacity. And that's not looking good, either. Thanks to all the NIMBYs, the actual number of megawatt turbines being built is shameful.
  - ZeroGravitas 3y ago
    About half of that is taxes and they are currently proposing to drop it to the minimum allowed under EU rules > The absolute bottom rate for electricity taxation is €0.5 per Megawatt-hour (MWh) compared to today’s rate of €20.5 per MWh – meaning the envisaged reduction could reach about 95%. https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/berlin-considers-slashing-electricity-tax-by-95-to-boost-heat-pump-uptake/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/ber...
Tade0 3y ago
You're completely ignoring China in this picture, which is by far the largest market for cars and where EVs already reached 22% market share last year. There's already a price war going on there, so the question isn't how long western manufacturers will be able to produce combustion cars, but will they survive the deluge of competitively priced Chinese EVs. The solar panel market did not and is now almost fully controlled by China.
- oblio 3y ago
  In my opinion what will happen is old fashioned protectionism. Western governments are still kind of dumb but they're wisening up. The US for example does it through incentives: if the car AND the batteries have been built in the US, the car is cheaper. Just the car was built in the US? Lower subsidy, more expensive car. Nothing built in the US? 0 subsidy, much more expensive car. The EU will probably do the same within max 5 years, European car brands are about to be wiped up if they don't, just like: * Nokia * Siemens * Ericsson * Alcatel * Sagem * ... etc were wiped out by Asian phone manufacturers.
  - scns 3y ago
    Nokias phone business was destroyed by that manager they brought in from Microsoft. He held a speech where he called the company "a burning platform" on which they are standing. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2011/feb/09/nokia-burning-platform-memo-elop https://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2011/feb/09/noki...
    - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
      Nokia were already on a path of self-destruction before Elop was hired. Also, nobody forced them to hire Stephen Elop, it was their decision to hire someone totally unfit. As a company you bear the consequences of who you appoint as your CEO.
  - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
    To be fair, only the consumer facing operations of those brands have been wiped out, same as with Motorola, but their enterprise/network-infrastructure businesses from Nokia, Siemens, Ericsson, Alcatel still exists, and Sagem is still in the military business (as part of Thales). However, the big issue is that those companies don't see much growth or sensible profit margins anymore compared to what US tech companies are raking in, fact reflected in their sweatshop salaries as well (I interviewed for Nokia and Ericsson a few years back). In a sad way they're a direct reflection of the EU economy: stagnation and lack of future prospects. Yes I know of ASML and German mittle-stand but they alone can't competitively support the entire EU economy the same way US tech companies do.
theshrike79 3y ago
Not just a weird mix of 50/60Hz they also have a single phase grid that's definitely not capable of home-charging EVs. America is pretty bad, but at least you have split-phase.
- bamboozled 3y ago
  Weird, because I know people who own EVs and charge them? Do you mean at scale?
  - theshrike79 3y ago
    I can get 11kW of 3-phase power to charge my car from the garage of my Grandma's house, that was built in the late 50's. I could do up to 22kW, but pretty much no EV supports 22kW AC charging (weird patent stuff IIRC). I can also charge at 2.7kW from a regular Schuko outlet. The single-phase thing is why electric kettles aren't a thing in the US, you just can't provide enough power for them to be usable. IIRC the maximum for US outlets is around 1.5kW, (most?) European plugs can provide around 2.3-2.7kW.
bamboozled 3y ago
Sorry what is blind about my take? I'm honestly interested. I don't see much in your response that proves my take is blind. The article is titled: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD, is this not an omission they slept on the starting line? Then: It is also jointly developing EV versions of mini commercial vehicles with Suzuki Motor and subsidiary Daihatsu Motor. Which is exactly the type of car I've been interested in buying, so I guess they too see the gap in the market now, but have done little too fill it. BYD will likely enter this space before Toyota. The only thing that will stop that is protectionism, which Japan is good at, so it might work out for Toyota. The only one who is blind here is Toyota, they fucked up good and now they have to "chase" the competition. Also the power grid isn't Toyota's problem, it's the Japanese governments problem, and Toyota and all the other major Japanese car manufacturers should've had the foresight to work with the government to address this issue 5-10 years ago, not now. Now it's too late. They will likely be destroyed by Tesla and BYD because of their unwillingness to adapt. Toyota are dinosaurs now and the fact the government didn't work to update the grid means the entire Japanese economy will be at the mercy of oil prices, or will lose crazy amounts of money subsidizing the prices because the price of oil will only continue to increase as economies of scale start to shift towards EVs and away from ICE and petroleum.

cjrp 3y ago

Does seem like the kei car/truck/van market would do quite well with full-EV. Lightweight, low speeds, short trip distances.

bamboozled 3y ago
A friend just bought a Mitsubishi EV kei van, it's an absolutely amazing car. I rode it in the other day and how I felt afterwards was betrayed. Betrayed that it was the most superior passenger experience I can remember, no noise, no smell, awesome acceleration, regenerative breaking, solar charged. I want one...the trouble is that we live in an area with snow and a 4WD is important and they only do a 2WD for now. We've been ripped off as consumers for way too long.

fomine3 3y ago

JDM minivan is one of the most difficult form factor for BEV because it's extremely optimized for internal space. It's better for Toyota to release and sell more SUV BEVs on foreign markets to compete. JDM minivan would be the released slowly because there's no BEV competitor in foreseeable future. Imported vans has been a joke for Japanese passengers, but I'd like to see how Chinese minivans does well (or not, maybe too big for Japan).