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Doomers are plentiful, he's really not that special. His points are just plain wrong and the conclusions are doubtful. > Grimly, McGuire likens the human popul
by e63f67dd-065b 3y ago
Doomers are plentiful, he's really not that special. His points are just plain wrong and the conclusions are doubtful.
> Grimly, McGuire likens the human population to bacteria in a petri dish. When these bacteria multiply, uncontrollably, their number becomes so big that they can no longer sustain themselves in the dish. At this point, they die
> There’s one projection that by 2050, crop yields may be down by up to 30 per cent, at a time when the world will need 50 per cent more food [to account for population growth],”
Oh wow, I take what I said back. He's even more wrong than the usual doomer.
For one, we're not running out of food. The old idea of a planetary "carrying capacity" for humans has long been busted: technology progresses and makes food production more efficient. We might run out of good agricultural land, but that just means we need to clear out more or shift to hydroponics. As the price of food increases, that's a signal to the market to devote more resources to growing food, making more intensive methods of farming possible.
> Now in the countryside, McGuire’s house has walls that are two-thirds of a metre thick, to keep the heat out
Doesn't more insulation keep the heat in? Traditional construction in the tropics where I come from are not giant insulated blocks for good reason, that's how you die from overheating yourself without air conditioning.
> Then there is the water supply. He says it is important to be self-sufficient. “I am doing a lot of rainwater harvesting. The summers in Britain will be seeing consistent temperatures of 40 degrees plus, so water is going to be a huge issue,”
We won't run out of water the same reason we won't run out of food. Once the cheap water is gone, you turn to more expensive methods -- drilling, then desalination. Of course it's more expensive -- that's the whole point -- marginal increases in cost allows for more expensive methods of production. The same way increasing oil prices allows for deep sea drilling, increasing water prices will allow for desalination and other such technologies.
I really don't know why people keep thinking we'll run out of food and water. We won't. It'll get more expensive as cheaper sources run out, sure, but we won't run out.