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You truly live in a tech industry bubble if you think most people would side with mass unemployment of truck drivers, one of the most common professions for men

You truly live in a tech industry bubble if you think most people would side with mass unemployment of truck drivers, one of the most common professions for men in the US, or want to consume AI-generated drivel for entertainment.

dventimi 3y ago
Would their likelihood to side with mass unemployment of truck drivers increase or decrease if it were explained to most people that this would lower the prices they pay?
jedberg 3y ago
Most consumers don't care either way, and many care about price above all else. Automated trucking means possibly lower prices, and AI entertainment does to. And depending on the source you look at, Truck Driver isn't even in the top 25 for men (it's mostly construction, HVAC, Pipe fitting, and related jobs). And in fact one source I looked at said that software engineering employs more men than truck driving (but that source was dubious).
- morkalork 3y ago
  In a way, consumers also rely on each other to keep prices low. If you don't have a large number of middle-class peers buying the same consumer goods as you, helping distribute R&D and manufacturing costs, then that consumer good will become a luxury item with luxury pricing.
- watwut 3y ago
  I do not know what you pay for entertainment if it is expensive, but in my world, it is not. And writers are not the expensive part of it either, that seems to be the cheapest one.
- bugglebeetle 3y ago
  “More than 3.5 million people work as truck drivers, an occupation dominated by men who hold more than 90% of truck driving jobs. Driving large tractor-trailers or delivery trucks is one of the largest occupations in the United States.” https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/06/america-keeps-on-trucking.html https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/06/america-keeps... > Automated trucking means possibly lower prices, and AI entertainment does to. We currently have inflation driven across a wide swathe of goods, driven primarily by corporate greed, and streaming services jacking up prices while putting out endless reboot and IP farm garbage. I’m not sure what would ever lead you to this conclusion.
anthonyskipper 3y ago
It doesn't matter what most people side with. CEOs will be for it so it will probably happen.
zaptheimpaler 3y ago
They would side against the unemployment but be for the cheaper prices it produces and ultimately vote with their wallets. Same way people decry the working conditions in Apple's factories but buy the products made in those factories anyways. This is not a SV bubble, it's just the facts of human nature. No one (or a tiny fraction) pays more for something when an identical service is available for cheaper.
- bugglebeetle 3y ago
  What’s to say it would ever lead to lower prices and not simply higher executive pay, stock buybacks etc? That certainly seems to be far more the order of the day.
  - zaptheimpaler 3y ago
    It's possible but that seems to be a fully general argument against ever making things more efficient? Why bother with any innovation at all if the profits are eaten by execs? For lowering prices vs. eating the profits, I think a bit of both happens in most industries. There are plenty of examples where better tech constantly leads to lower prices - basically most PC hardware like SSDs today. IMO these kinds of things never get media attention but yeah prices do get lower in many areas. The dynamics of whether they extract profits or pass on savings are complex and vary over time depending on competition etc. but over the long term its hard to argue that some industry will get more efficient but no one else will start competing with the same tech to bring prices down. For self driving cars we have 2-3 players in the field too which is a good sign. Overall this argument has been rehashed for different technologies many times. Horse drivers vs. cars, scribes vs. typewriters blah blah. Its difficult to argue we would have been better off today by protecting jobs over letting the technology help everyone eventually. Personally i think this transition will be rough though, a lot of people including programmers are going to lose their jobs and we might have years of pain ahead before things stabilize. But in the long term yeah its better than just hiding AI in a box and pretending like nothing happened.
    - bugglebeetle 3y ago
Animats 3y ago
Mass unemployment of longshoremen happened when containers came in.
NikolaNovak 3y ago
Nothing to do with tech industry bubble. I am shocked how little sympathy people have for e,g, teachers, who impact their kids every day, and have been consistently crapped on for decades on this continent. General public's overall sympathy to unions and/or truckers is limited. Unfortunately, most people's attitude is "I don't have that, so they shouldn't either!" or "My life is hard, theirs should be too!!!". It would be more productive and compassionate to say "I don't have what they're asking for either, maybe I should do something about that and we'll all get better", but sadly that's not how it tends to work :-<
- mannerheim 3y ago
  Maybe teachers would have more sympathy if they weren't lobbying to keep children in failing schools while sending their own children to private schools. https://katv.com/news/nation-world/chicago-teachers-union-leader-slammed-for-sending-son-to-private-school-hypocrisy-of-the-highest-order-stacy-davis-gates-school-choice-public-schools-illinois https://katv.com/news/nation-world/chicago-teachers-union-le...
- g42gregory 3y ago
  In California, teachers in public schools are stopping to assign the homework to students, certainly through 5th grade and, in some places, beyond. They a going along with de-tracking (removing advanced classes). Not to mention other practices. As parent, you basically have to find tutors, enroll kids into AoPS/Russian Math, etc… I, for one, stopped understanding what is it that these teachers actually do?
  - ultrarunner 3y ago
    My parents are both public school teachers. "Classroom management" is the term that describes most of the job. My dad has inadvertently conflated the need for reopening schools during the pandemic with the need for childcare to keep the economy moving (though he quickly reversed course on the need to reopen schools when union talking points came down the pipe). Teachers have definitely been "crapped on" for a long time, but they fervently argue for the system from which the crap flows.
chasd00 3y ago
> You truly live in a tech industry bubble if you think most people would side with mass unemployment of truck drivers, one of the most common professions for men in the US, or want to consume AI-generated drivel for entertainment. if the windows of the truck are tinted and you can't tell whether or not an AI is driving and if the script isn't signed with an author's signature and you can't tell who wrote it then who how will you even know to be upset or not?
mannerheim 3y ago
> You truly live in a tech industry bubble if you think most people would side with mass unemployment of truck drivers Radical idea here: How about some places accept autonomous trucks, and some places accept human-operated ones, and then customers can choose which places they frequent? If they truly would side with truck drivers, they should go to stores that only used human-operated trucks without the need for legislation, right?
- Animats 3y ago
  The most likely first adopters are probably FedEx or UPS, which have huge numbers of heavy trucks which operate only between their internal distribution hubs. This will require infrastructure at the endpoints, to get trucks directed to the correct loading dock, backed into place, and docked. They'll also need fueling, washing, and maintenance. Random trucks between random points are a ways off.
  - jedberg 3y ago
    Most automated trucking scenarios are similar to the harbor pilot method ships use. The automated driving would be on the highway, and the local pilot would take over when it arrived at the gate to get it into the right loading bay and back out again.

dventimi 3y ago

Would their likelihood to side with mass unemployment of truck drivers increase or decrease if it were explained to most people that this would lower the prices they pay?

jedberg 3y ago

Most consumers don't care either way, and many care about price above all else. Automated trucking means possibly lower prices, and AI entertainment does to. And depending on the source you look at, Truck Driver isn't even in the top 25 for men (it's mostly construction, HVAC, Pipe fitting, and related jobs). And in fact one source I looked at said that software engineering employs more men than truck driving (but that source was dubious).

morkalork 3y ago
In a way, consumers also rely on each other to keep prices low. If you don't have a large number of middle-class peers buying the same consumer goods as you, helping distribute R&D and manufacturing costs, then that consumer good will become a luxury item with luxury pricing.
watwut 3y ago
I do not know what you pay for entertainment if it is expensive, but in my world, it is not. And writers are not the expensive part of it either, that seems to be the cheapest one.
bugglebeetle 3y ago
“More than 3.5 million people work as truck drivers, an occupation dominated by men who hold more than 90% of truck driving jobs. Driving large tractor-trailers or delivery trucks is one of the largest occupations in the United States.” https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/06/america-keeps-on-trucking.html https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/06/america-keeps... > Automated trucking means possibly lower prices, and AI entertainment does to. We currently have inflation driven across a wide swathe of goods, driven primarily by corporate greed, and streaming services jacking up prices while putting out endless reboot and IP farm garbage. I’m not sure what would ever lead you to this conclusion.

anthonyskipper 3y ago

It doesn't matter what most people side with. CEOs will be for it so it will probably happen.

zaptheimpaler 3y ago

They would side against the unemployment but be for the cheaper prices it produces and ultimately vote with their wallets. Same way people decry the working conditions in Apple's factories but buy the products made in those factories anyways. This is not a SV bubble, it's just the facts of human nature. No one (or a tiny fraction) pays more for something when an identical service is available for cheaper.

bugglebeetle 3y ago
What’s to say it would ever lead to lower prices and not simply higher executive pay, stock buybacks etc? That certainly seems to be far more the order of the day.
- zaptheimpaler 3y ago
  It's possible but that seems to be a fully general argument against ever making things more efficient? Why bother with any innovation at all if the profits are eaten by execs? For lowering prices vs. eating the profits, I think a bit of both happens in most industries. There are plenty of examples where better tech constantly leads to lower prices - basically most PC hardware like SSDs today. IMO these kinds of things never get media attention but yeah prices do get lower in many areas. The dynamics of whether they extract profits or pass on savings are complex and vary over time depending on competition etc. but over the long term its hard to argue that some industry will get more efficient but no one else will start competing with the same tech to bring prices down. For self driving cars we have 2-3 players in the field too which is a good sign. Overall this argument has been rehashed for different technologies many times. Horse drivers vs. cars, scribes vs. typewriters blah blah. Its difficult to argue we would have been better off today by protecting jobs over letting the technology help everyone eventually. Personally i think this transition will be rough though, a lot of people including programmers are going to lose their jobs and we might have years of pain ahead before things stabilize. But in the long term yeah its better than just hiding AI in a box and pretending like nothing happened.
  - bugglebeetle 3y ago

Animats 3y ago

Mass unemployment of longshoremen happened when containers came in.

NikolaNovak 3y ago

Nothing to do with tech industry bubble. I am shocked how little sympathy people have for e,g, teachers, who impact their kids every day, and have been consistently crapped on for decades on this continent. General public's overall sympathy to unions and/or truckers is limited. Unfortunately, most people's attitude is "I don't have that, so they shouldn't either!" or "My life is hard, theirs should be too!!!". It would be more productive and compassionate to say "I don't have what they're asking for either, maybe I should do something about that and we'll all get better", but sadly that's not how it tends to work :-<

mannerheim 3y ago
Maybe teachers would have more sympathy if they weren't lobbying to keep children in failing schools while sending their own children to private schools. https://katv.com/news/nation-world/chicago-teachers-union-leader-slammed-for-sending-son-to-private-school-hypocrisy-of-the-highest-order-stacy-davis-gates-school-choice-public-schools-illinois https://katv.com/news/nation-world/chicago-teachers-union-le...
g42gregory 3y ago
In California, teachers in public schools are stopping to assign the homework to students, certainly through 5th grade and, in some places, beyond. They a going along with de-tracking (removing advanced classes). Not to mention other practices. As parent, you basically have to find tutors, enroll kids into AoPS/Russian Math, etc… I, for one, stopped understanding what is it that these teachers actually do?
- ultrarunner 3y ago
  My parents are both public school teachers. "Classroom management" is the term that describes most of the job. My dad has inadvertently conflated the need for reopening schools during the pandemic with the need for childcare to keep the economy moving (though he quickly reversed course on the need to reopen schools when union talking points came down the pipe). Teachers have definitely been "crapped on" for a long time, but they fervently argue for the system from which the crap flows.

chasd00 3y ago

> You truly live in a tech industry bubble if you think most people would side with mass unemployment of truck drivers, one of the most common professions for men in the US, or want to consume AI-generated drivel for entertainment. if the windows of the truck are tinted and you can't tell whether or not an AI is driving and if the script isn't signed with an author's signature and you can't tell who wrote it then who how will you even know to be upset or not?

mannerheim 3y ago

> You truly live in a tech industry bubble if you think most people would side with mass unemployment of truck drivers Radical idea here: How about some places accept autonomous trucks, and some places accept human-operated ones, and then customers can choose which places they frequent? If they truly would side with truck drivers, they should go to stores that only used human-operated trucks without the need for legislation, right?

Animats 3y ago
The most likely first adopters are probably FedEx or UPS, which have huge numbers of heavy trucks which operate only between their internal distribution hubs. This will require infrastructure at the endpoints, to get trucks directed to the correct loading dock, backed into place, and docked. They'll also need fueling, washing, and maintenance. Random trucks between random points are a ways off.
- jedberg 3y ago
  Most automated trucking scenarios are similar to the harbor pilot method ships use. The automated driving would be on the highway, and the local pilot would take over when it arrived at the gate to get it into the right loading bay and back out again.