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> I do think we'll hit a soft ceiling in the not too distant future ... it's going to plateau and progress will become substantially more gradual. I don't thin
by johnyzee 3y ago
> I do think we'll hit a soft ceiling in the not too distant future ... it's going to plateau and progress will become substantially more gradual.
I don't think this will age well.
It's a matter of simple compute power to advance from realistic text/token prediction, to realistic synthesis of stuff like human (or animal) body movement, for all kinds of situations, including realistic facial/body language, moods, and so on. Of course perfect voice synthesis. Coupled with good enough robotics, you can see where I'm going with this, and that's only because my imagination is limited to sci-fi movie tropes. I think this is going to be wilder than we can imagine, while still just copying training sets.
- troupo 3y ago> It's a matter of simple compute power to advance Yup. It's "just" a compute advance away. Never mind it's already consuming as much computing as we can throw at it. It's "just" there.
- FiberBundle 3y agoIsn't video prediction a substantially harder problem than text prediction? At least that was the case a couple of years ago with RNNs/LSTMs. Haven't kept up with the research, maybe there's been progress.