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The opposite is fairly naive. Software development is not only dumping tokens into a text file. To have a significant impact on the market, it should do much, m

The opposite is fairly naive. Software development is not only dumping tokens into a text file. To have a significant impact on the market, it should do much, much, much more: compile and test code, automatically assess the quality of what its done, be aware of the current design trends (if in UI/UX), ideally innovate, it should also be able to run a debugger, inspect all the variables, and deduce from there how it got something wrong, sometimes with tiny clues that I don't even know how it would get its information (e.g. in graphics programming where you have to actually see at a high frame rate). Oh snap a library is broken ? The AI needs to search online why it's broken, then find a fix (log onto a website to communicate with support, install a missing dep...). It can't be fixed ? Then the AI needs to explain this to the manager, good luck for that. It would need to think and feel like a human, otherwise producing uncanny content that will be either boring, either creepy. You can think about your daily job and break down all the tasks, and you'll quickly realize that replacing all this is just a monstrous task.

jader201 3y ago
Yeah, I definitely am not on team “We’re Doomed”, but I also can’t say definitively that I’m on team “We’re Fine” either. I think there are merits to both arguments, and I think it’s possible that we’ll see things move towards either direction in the next 1/5/10 years. My point is, I don’t think we can rule out the possibility of some jobs being at risk within the next 1/5/10 years.
- TheRoque 3y ago
  Some jobs are definitely at risk, I was just making the case for software development. But just like you, even after writing all this, there's still some anxiety.
famouswaffles 3y ago
https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.12499 https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.12499
jabradoodle 3y ago
In a market you don't need to replace it, you replace millions of hours of building/testing/documenting apps and you've effectively reduced demand for SWE labour (ignoring the potential for new job creation).

jader201 3y ago

Yeah, I definitely am not on team “We’re Doomed”, but I also can’t say definitively that I’m on team “We’re Fine” either. I think there are merits to both arguments, and I think it’s possible that we’ll see things move towards either direction in the next 1/5/10 years. My point is, I don’t think we can rule out the possibility of some jobs being at risk within the next 1/5/10 years.

TheRoque 3y ago
Some jobs are definitely at risk, I was just making the case for software development. But just like you, even after writing all this, there's still some anxiety.

famouswaffles 3y ago

https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.12499 https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.12499

jabradoodle 3y ago

In a market you don't need to replace it, you replace millions of hours of building/testing/documenting apps and you've effectively reduced demand for SWE labour (ignoring the potential for new job creation).