3 ms·

We will see when Apple starts shipping their own modem. I know what I am betting on. Would you like to take the other side of the bet? I do appreciate your fai

We will see when Apple starts shipping their own modem. I know what I am betting on. Would you like to take the other side of the bet? I do appreciate your faith in the EMH.

bradknowles 3y ago
I'm not convinced that they will ever be shipping their own modem. Or, if they do, I suspect that the reason will be that antitrust laws have forced Qualcomm to make changes to their business model which causes cracks in their ecosystem which Apple is then able to take advantage of. Even then, I think it would be a decade or more before Apple could start shipping their modem. Either that, or Apple gets fed up with the whole situation and just buys Qualcomm outright, then maybe strips the components and IP licenses they want, and then turns around and sells the dregs back to the market. But then that would endanger Apple to be the main target of those same kinds of antitrust laws. Given as entrenched and both Apple and Qualcomm are, I'm not willing to make any bets between the Irresistible Force and the Unbreakable Object.
- mcculley 3y ago
  Many of the possible outcomes would lead to more flexibility for Apple, who will then immediately start shipping a feature that most pro users would benefit from.
  - bradknowles 3y ago
    Unfortunately, the key arguments that have to be made with Apple are: 1. How much more profit can you show that they will make if they take the decision to implement your suggestion? 2. How will this help them better meet their regulatory requirements? For #1, you don't really have an answer. You would be one customer who would be affected, and you might choose to buy their hardware instead. But how likely is that? Can you prove that? And how many more people are there in the market who feel the same way? For #2, your suggestion actually makes the regulatory situation worse, since you're now adding a cell phone modem to what was otherwise "just" a computing device. And that brings a whole host of additional regulations into the mix, including import laws and tariffs. And any lawsuit that is filed against Apple that could involve protectionist measures against intrusion of external businesses into local cell phone politics would now be able to stop all imports of all laptops of this type, since any of them could presumably have a cell phone modem in them. For Apple as a corporation, I'm seeing effectively no upside here, and all downside. For you personally, there would be a lot of upside. And people like me would also benefit. I just don't see a compelling argument that would convince Apple.
    - mcculley 3y ago
      You are clearly convinced that this was a decision made based on the market. I don’t believe that. I believe that as soon as they are not paying a percentage of every device to Qualcomm, Apple will ship this obvious feature. As for the fear over regulation, why do Dell laptops and Apple iPads have modems?
      - bradknowles 3y ago
        Maybe, but there's only one way to find out. We will just have to wait and see. Despite whatever you may think of me, I do hope you're right.
        mcculley 3y ago
        I don’t think poorly of you at all. I think many assume that free market forces prevail. It seems to me that the current monopolies are the reason we don’t have an obvious feature.

We will see when Apple starts shipping their own modem. I know what I am betting on. Would you like to take the other side of the bet? I do appreciate your faith in the EMH.

bradknowles 3y ago

I'm not convinced that they will ever be shipping their own modem. Or, if they do, I suspect that the reason will be that antitrust laws have forced Qualcomm to make changes to their business model which causes cracks in their ecosystem which Apple is then able to take advantage of. Even then, I think it would be a decade or more before Apple could start shipping their modem. Either that, or Apple gets fed up with the whole situation and just buys Qualcomm outright, then maybe strips the components and IP licenses they want, and then turns around and sells the dregs back to the market. But then that would endanger Apple to be the main target of those same kinds of antitrust laws. Given as entrenched and both Apple and Qualcomm are, I'm not willing to make any bets between the Irresistible Force and the Unbreakable Object.

mcculley 3y ago
Many of the possible outcomes would lead to more flexibility for Apple, who will then immediately start shipping a feature that most pro users would benefit from.
- bradknowles 3y ago
  Unfortunately, the key arguments that have to be made with Apple are: 1. How much more profit can you show that they will make if they take the decision to implement your suggestion? 2. How will this help them better meet their regulatory requirements? For #1, you don't really have an answer. You would be one customer who would be affected, and you might choose to buy their hardware instead. But how likely is that? Can you prove that? And how many more people are there in the market who feel the same way? For #2, your suggestion actually makes the regulatory situation worse, since you're now adding a cell phone modem to what was otherwise "just" a computing device. And that brings a whole host of additional regulations into the mix, including import laws and tariffs. And any lawsuit that is filed against Apple that could involve protectionist measures against intrusion of external businesses into local cell phone politics would now be able to stop all imports of all laptops of this type, since any of them could presumably have a cell phone modem in them. For Apple as a corporation, I'm seeing effectively no upside here, and all downside. For you personally, there would be a lot of upside. And people like me would also benefit. I just don't see a compelling argument that would convince Apple.
  - mcculley 3y ago
    You are clearly convinced that this was a decision made based on the market. I don’t believe that. I believe that as soon as they are not paying a percentage of every device to Qualcomm, Apple will ship this obvious feature. As for the fear over regulation, why do Dell laptops and Apple iPads have modems?
    - bradknowles 3y ago
      Maybe, but there's only one way to find out. We will just have to wait and see. Despite whatever you may think of me, I do hope you're right.
      - mcculley 3y ago
        I don’t think poorly of you at all. I think many assume that free market forces prevail. It seems to me that the current monopolies are the reason we don’t have an obvious feature.