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We agree that Apple is stuck with Qualcomm. I remain unconvinced that the reason they can put a modem in my watch and not in the top of the line MacBook Pro is

We agree that Apple is stuck with Qualcomm. I remain unconvinced that the reason they can put a modem in my watch and not in the top of the line MacBook Pro is for simple market reasons. “Qualcomm licenses all its patents as a group. For a set fee -- based on the selling price of the end device” according to https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/apple-and-qualcomm-settle-heres-what-it-means-for-your-next-iphone/ https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/apple-and-qualcomm-settle-h...

bradknowles 3y ago
This is a company that spends millions and millions of dollars every year, shaving a fraction of a millimeter here and a fraction of an ounce there. The absolute last thing they want to do is add new hardware functionality that won't be used by the bulk of the market. When you squit out 50 models of something per year (like Samsung phones), you can afford for some of them to be more niche products that won't get as wide adoption. When you have only two or three variations on a single product for that year (like Apple), you can't afford that. Instead, you have to make sure that all the features you offer are either used or usable by the majority of the customers, or that adding those features allows you to add enough to the price that the small number of people who would buy that product for those features will give you a sufficiently high return on your investment that you will be able to at least maintain your profit margin. There just aren't enough people in the market like you who are unwilling to tether and that fact alone is enough to push them to hardware being made by a different company. I want the integrated SIM or e-SIM myself, but I'm willing to tether if the integrated option isn't available. So, I'm part of the market that Apple is addressing. In contrast, you're not willing to tether, and so you buy hardware from a different company, and therefore not part of the segment they are addressing. Apple has repeatedly demonstrated that there are segments of the market that they're not willing to chase, and this is one of those situations.
- mcculley 3y ago
  We will see when Apple starts shipping their own modem. I know what I am betting on. Would you like to take the other side of the bet? I do appreciate your faith in the EMH.
  - bradknowles 3y ago
    I'm not convinced that they will ever be shipping their own modem. Or, if they do, I suspect that the reason will be that antitrust laws have forced Qualcomm to make changes to their business model which causes cracks in their ecosystem which Apple is then able to take advantage of. Even then, I think it would be a decade or more before Apple could start shipping their modem. Either that, or Apple gets fed up with the whole situation and just buys Qualcomm outright, then maybe strips the components and IP licenses they want, and then turns around and sells the dregs back to the market. But then that would endanger Apple to be the main target of those same kinds of antitrust laws. Given as entrenched and both Apple and Qualcomm are, I'm not willing to make any bets between the Irresistible Force and the Unbreakable Object.
    - mcculley 3y ago
      Many of the possible outcomes would lead to more flexibility for Apple, who will then immediately start shipping a feature that most pro users would benefit from.
      - bradknowles 3y ago
        Unfortunately, the key arguments that have to be made with Apple are: 1. How much more profit can you show that they will make if they take the decision to implement your suggestion? 2. How will this help them better meet their regulatory requirements? For #1, you don't really have an answer. You would be one customer who would be affected, and you might choose to buy their hardware instead. But how likely is that? Can you prove that? And how many more people are there in the market who feel the same way? For #2, your suggestion actually makes the regulatory situation worse, since you're now adding a cell phone modem to what was otherwise "just" a computing device. And that brings a whole host of additional regulations into the mix, including import laws and tariffs. And any lawsuit that is filed against Apple that could involve protectionist measures against intrusion of external businesses into local cell phone politics would now be able to stop all imports of all laptops of this type, since any of them could presumably have a cell phone modem in them. For Apple as a corporation, I'm seeing effectively no upside here, and all downside. For you personally, there would be a lot of upside. And people like me would also benefit. I just don't see a compelling argument that would convince Apple.
- mcculley 3y ago
  > In contrast, you're not willing to tether, and so you buy hardware from a different company, and therefore not part of the segment they are addressing. I use the tethering almost daily and hate it. I have almost every kind of Apple device. Many of them have modems.

bradknowles 3y ago

This is a company that spends millions and millions of dollars every year, shaving a fraction of a millimeter here and a fraction of an ounce there. The absolute last thing they want to do is add new hardware functionality that won't be used by the bulk of the market. When you squit out 50 models of something per year (like Samsung phones), you can afford for some of them to be more niche products that won't get as wide adoption. When you have only two or three variations on a single product for that year (like Apple), you can't afford that. Instead, you have to make sure that all the features you offer are either used or usable by the majority of the customers, or that adding those features allows you to add enough to the price that the small number of people who would buy that product for those features will give you a sufficiently high return on your investment that you will be able to at least maintain your profit margin. There just aren't enough people in the market like you who are unwilling to tether and that fact alone is enough to push them to hardware being made by a different company. I want the integrated SIM or e-SIM myself, but I'm willing to tether if the integrated option isn't available. So, I'm part of the market that Apple is addressing. In contrast, you're not willing to tether, and so you buy hardware from a different company, and therefore not part of the segment they are addressing. Apple has repeatedly demonstrated that there are segments of the market that they're not willing to chase, and this is one of those situations.

mcculley 3y ago
We will see when Apple starts shipping their own modem. I know what I am betting on. Would you like to take the other side of the bet? I do appreciate your faith in the EMH.
- bradknowles 3y ago
  I'm not convinced that they will ever be shipping their own modem. Or, if they do, I suspect that the reason will be that antitrust laws have forced Qualcomm to make changes to their business model which causes cracks in their ecosystem which Apple is then able to take advantage of. Even then, I think it would be a decade or more before Apple could start shipping their modem. Either that, or Apple gets fed up with the whole situation and just buys Qualcomm outright, then maybe strips the components and IP licenses they want, and then turns around and sells the dregs back to the market. But then that would endanger Apple to be the main target of those same kinds of antitrust laws. Given as entrenched and both Apple and Qualcomm are, I'm not willing to make any bets between the Irresistible Force and the Unbreakable Object.
  - mcculley 3y ago
    Many of the possible outcomes would lead to more flexibility for Apple, who will then immediately start shipping a feature that most pro users would benefit from.
    - bradknowles 3y ago
      Unfortunately, the key arguments that have to be made with Apple are: 1. How much more profit can you show that they will make if they take the decision to implement your suggestion? 2. How will this help them better meet their regulatory requirements? For #1, you don't really have an answer. You would be one customer who would be affected, and you might choose to buy their hardware instead. But how likely is that? Can you prove that? And how many more people are there in the market who feel the same way? For #2, your suggestion actually makes the regulatory situation worse, since you're now adding a cell phone modem to what was otherwise "just" a computing device. And that brings a whole host of additional regulations into the mix, including import laws and tariffs. And any lawsuit that is filed against Apple that could involve protectionist measures against intrusion of external businesses into local cell phone politics would now be able to stop all imports of all laptops of this type, since any of them could presumably have a cell phone modem in them. For Apple as a corporation, I'm seeing effectively no upside here, and all downside. For you personally, there would be a lot of upside. And people like me would also benefit. I just don't see a compelling argument that would convince Apple.
mcculley 3y ago
> In contrast, you're not willing to tether, and so you buy hardware from a different company, and therefore not part of the segment they are addressing. I use the tethering almost daily and hate it. I have almost every kind of Apple device. Many of them have modems.