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Please, mind, this is only showing correlation. No cause/effect relation. It might be that people who have GI problems are more likely to skip breakfast. Or th

Please, mind, this is only showing correlation. No cause/effect relation. It might be that people who have GI problems are more likely to skip breakfast. Or there might be something else that causes both. Be careful when reading studies...

nextos 3y ago
Exactly. I have reviewed a few articles for Nature Medicine, Nature Communications, and twice for Nature. In many cases, I found really absurd causal claims, plus a total ignorance of confounding and causal inference techniques. It is shocking that many researchers in biology and medicine have never heard about many of the topics surveyed in e.g. Chapter 36 of Kevin Murphy's second book [1]. [1] https://probml.github.io/pml-book/book2.html https://probml.github.io/pml-book/book2.html
- liquidpele 3y ago
  “Meta analysis” is the new snake oil.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- 4death4 3y ago
  Even with confounding and causal inference techniques, I will never be convinced by studies that aren't double-blind RCTs or studies that show a direct causal relationship. The reason is that the set of human behavior is so fast and unfathomably complicated. Any two aspects of life are surely correlated by many factors that are influenced by lifestyle.
  - nextos 3y ago
    For ethical reasons, it is not possible to perform some kinds of research with double-blind RCTs. Besides, large biobanks provide a wealth of observational data which can be explored using causal inference. One can always use a RCT on promising hypotheses.
sandworm101 3y ago
People with acid reflux, a disease that is more problematic at night, are also more likely to skip breakfast.
- onetimeuse92304 3y ago
  There, you have it. It is extremely important to not overreact to reports of correlation without causation. A report that something is linked to cancer can be worrying, but is not yet enough to make inferences. Here is a list of things that are linked (correlated) to each other: * years of experience programming and a chance of getting cancer * number of births and chance of getting osteoporosis * having a surgery and dying of surgery-related complications (can't have complications if you don't have surgery) * GDP and a chance of getting diagnosed with cancer at a young age (generally, the higher GDP the higher the chance your cancer gets caught earlier or at all -- in many poor countries nobody cares what you died to) Etc.
nucleardog 3y ago
As someone with GERD… maybe I’m just putting too much weight in my life an experience, but this right here. Turns out laying down for hours and having stomach acid wash up into your esophagus and irritating it makes it somewhat unpleasant to eat. It takes me a while after getting up for everything to settle before I can eat. This also substantially raises my risk of GI cancers. We know there’s a causal link between things like GERD and GI cancers. This could just be showing a relationship between GERD and skipping breakfast which has a much clearer method of action than “not eating food first thing in the morning gives you cancer”.

nextos 3y ago

Exactly. I have reviewed a few articles for Nature Medicine, Nature Communications, and twice for Nature. In many cases, I found really absurd causal claims, plus a total ignorance of confounding and causal inference techniques. It is shocking that many researchers in biology and medicine have never heard about many of the topics surveyed in e.g. Chapter 36 of Kevin Murphy's second book [1]. [1] https://probml.github.io/pml-book/book2.html https://probml.github.io/pml-book/book2.html

liquidpele 3y ago
“Meta analysis” is the new snake oil.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
4death4 3y ago
Even with confounding and causal inference techniques, I will never be convinced by studies that aren't double-blind RCTs or studies that show a direct causal relationship. The reason is that the set of human behavior is so fast and unfathomably complicated. Any two aspects of life are surely correlated by many factors that are influenced by lifestyle.
- nextos 3y ago
  For ethical reasons, it is not possible to perform some kinds of research with double-blind RCTs. Besides, large biobanks provide a wealth of observational data which can be explored using causal inference. One can always use a RCT on promising hypotheses.

sandworm101 3y ago

People with acid reflux, a disease that is more problematic at night, are also more likely to skip breakfast.

onetimeuse92304 3y ago
There, you have it. It is extremely important to not overreact to reports of correlation without causation. A report that something is linked to cancer can be worrying, but is not yet enough to make inferences. Here is a list of things that are linked (correlated) to each other: * years of experience programming and a chance of getting cancer * number of births and chance of getting osteoporosis * having a surgery and dying of surgery-related complications (can't have complications if you don't have surgery) * GDP and a chance of getting diagnosed with cancer at a young age (generally, the higher GDP the higher the chance your cancer gets caught earlier or at all -- in many poor countries nobody cares what you died to) Etc.

nucleardog 3y ago

As someone with GERD… maybe I’m just putting too much weight in my life an experience, but this right here. Turns out laying down for hours and having stomach acid wash up into your esophagus and irritating it makes it somewhat unpleasant to eat. It takes me a while after getting up for everything to settle before I can eat. This also substantially raises my risk of GI cancers. We know there’s a causal link between things like GERD and GI cancers. This could just be showing a relationship between GERD and skipping breakfast which has a much clearer method of action than “not eating food first thing in the morning gives you cancer”.