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To quote the article: That does not count the numerous residential projects that have already been sold but not yet completed due to cash-flow problems, or the

To quote the article: That does not count the numerous residential projects that have already been sold but not yet completed due to cash-flow problems, or the multiple homes purchased by speculators in the last market upturn in 2016 that remain vacant, which together make up the bulk of unused space, experts estimate. Maybe give the article a slower and calmer re-read.

fnordpiglet 3y ago
Yeah - the 7.2mm is only unsold homes currently on market. There are entire districts in China with empty skyscrapers empty of humans but full of highly leveraged speculators. Once upon a time I was involved in a trading business focused on mortgages and real estate debt and the analytics around Chinese property bubbles were eye watering 15 years ago, and as I understand it it’s only gotten worse. I couldn’t guess if it was in the scale quoted or not, but it was in the “OMG” scale, and this was coming off the US real estate bubble. But the article probably could have done better quantifying the unused and partially completed units better. It’s lazy reporting to quote the official stats and not the estimates, which are certainly available.
coldtea 3y ago
I read that part too, and it's irrelevant. There are no "enough vacant homes to host 3 billion people" with or without those. Even considering families of 5, that would be 600 million homes, a ridiculous number.
- clouddrover 3y ago
  No, it's even more relevant. That's lost investment that won't see a return. China has overbuilt residential property and it's a major issue.
  - FooBarBizBazz 3y ago
    Something is messed up when a country creates plenty and that's a bad thing.
    - clouddrover 3y ago
      No, it's just bad economics. Supply has far exceeded demand. People took on debt to buy these properties and they will not see a return on their investment. And that will lead to financial loss and bankruptcy.
    - yen223 3y ago
      Yeah, something that grates my cheese is when falling home prices is portrayed as a bad thing that should be feared!
      - FooBarBizBazz 3y ago
        Example: Biden pointed to record-high home prices in his last State of the Union as a bragging point. I was more than a little annoyed by that. And that's as someone who is generally supportive of Biden. (Pretty sure Trump would have done the same. I mean, he's a real estate investor himself.)
pixl97 3y ago
"Sold but not yet completed" Eh... that's not unused space, that's non existent space. What percentage of those have no actual on the ground progress, hence are total bullshit?
- addicted 3y ago
  In the context of China’s economic crisis it’s far more relevant. The 7.2mm homes, if they don’t get occupied, can at least be used as homes by the people who own them, many of whom have put their entire life savings into these places. The homes that have been sold but not built will likely never be built and the people who have put their entire life savings and taken on debt (that they’re already paying interest on) to acquire those homes will get absolutely nothing in return.
  - pixl97 3y ago
    I don't disagree, but it gives a diffent image... think of it this way "Millions starving as a billion tons of grain goes unused" I mean people starving is bad, why aren't they doing something with all that food. But if you instead write "millions stave as a billion tons of grain never planted" gives you a much different view of the ground truth.

fnordpiglet 3y ago

Yeah - the 7.2mm is only unsold homes currently on market. There are entire districts in China with empty skyscrapers empty of humans but full of highly leveraged speculators. Once upon a time I was involved in a trading business focused on mortgages and real estate debt and the analytics around Chinese property bubbles were eye watering 15 years ago, and as I understand it it’s only gotten worse. I couldn’t guess if it was in the scale quoted or not, but it was in the “OMG” scale, and this was coming off the US real estate bubble. But the article probably could have done better quantifying the unused and partially completed units better. It’s lazy reporting to quote the official stats and not the estimates, which are certainly available.

coldtea 3y ago

I read that part too, and it's irrelevant. There are no "enough vacant homes to host 3 billion people" with or without those. Even considering families of 5, that would be 600 million homes, a ridiculous number.

clouddrover 3y ago
No, it's even more relevant. That's lost investment that won't see a return. China has overbuilt residential property and it's a major issue.
- FooBarBizBazz 3y ago
  Something is messed up when a country creates plenty and that's a bad thing.
  - clouddrover 3y ago
    No, it's just bad economics. Supply has far exceeded demand. People took on debt to buy these properties and they will not see a return on their investment. And that will lead to financial loss and bankruptcy.
  - yen223 3y ago
    Yeah, something that grates my cheese is when falling home prices is portrayed as a bad thing that should be feared!
    - FooBarBizBazz 3y ago
      Example: Biden pointed to record-high home prices in his last State of the Union as a bragging point. I was more than a little annoyed by that. And that's as someone who is generally supportive of Biden. (Pretty sure Trump would have done the same. I mean, he's a real estate investor himself.)

pixl97 3y ago

"Sold but not yet completed" Eh... that's not unused space, that's non existent space. What percentage of those have no actual on the ground progress, hence are total bullshit?

addicted 3y ago
In the context of China’s economic crisis it’s far more relevant. The 7.2mm homes, if they don’t get occupied, can at least be used as homes by the people who own them, many of whom have put their entire life savings into these places. The homes that have been sold but not built will likely never be built and the people who have put their entire life savings and taken on debt (that they’re already paying interest on) to acquire those homes will get absolutely nothing in return.
- pixl97 3y ago
  I don't disagree, but it gives a diffent image... think of it this way "Millions starving as a billion tons of grain goes unused" I mean people starving is bad, why aren't they doing something with all that food. But if you instead write "millions stave as a billion tons of grain never planted" gives you a much different view of the ground truth.