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As if what's going to happen depends on the ensemble average of predictors. Tell me why the lone economist predicts that there will be (and there will) an ec
by thsksbd 3y ago
As if what's going to happen depends on the ensemble average of predictors.
Tell me why the lone economist predicts that there will be (and there will) an economic crash not how many
- Tenoke 3y agoPolling an ensemble of experts is much better than asking a single one, and there are some that vote 'not sure' or similar in those polls so it's hardly a coin flip.
- Turing_Machine 3y agoEconomists aren't really experts, though, as demostrated by the very fact that there's a 42-58 split. You wouldn't see that in any field where there's genuine expertise (e.g., mathematics, engineering, medicine...)
- thsksbd 3y agoNo. A only a reasoned argument counts for anything, no matter how many. Everything else is auguring.