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Those numbers are great because when Germany started the costs for renewables were astronomic. Even in 2012 when Germany deployed a then unthinkable 10GW+ of so

Those numbers are great because when Germany started the costs for renewables were astronomic. Even in 2012 when Germany deployed a then unthinkable 10GW+ of solar it was probably the most expensive electricity source. But now it is the cheapest -- and fastest way to deploy clean energy. So in that case, what lock in? If you decarbonize a lot more a lot faster, you will have more money to spend on nuclear. Lock in happens with nuclear first -- by the time you're done you're broke, didn't accomplish as much and it's anyway too late. That's rational only if you're really bad with numbers. The renewables industry is on an astronomic trajectory. From zero to saving the world, and it will succeed where nuclear has failed for 70 years. Precisely the reason why fossil fuels and nuclear are two sides of the same coin: highly dependant on lobbying and corruption. Nuclear failed even before carbon emissions were an issue and this green relabeling is its last lifeline. But because it already failed, it won't suddenly miraculously succeed. All of the former climate deniers are now on the nuclear bandwagon because they know this will buy the most time for fossil fuels. Here is one: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/09/renewable-energy-nuclear-power-green-net-zero-chernobyl/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/09/renewable-energy... I am an engineer he says, nuclear is the only option. Ten years ago he was a high member of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition that sued the government to prevent it from claiming climate change is dangerous. Nuclear requires dirty backup during construction which is always very long. I don't understand why this is so difficult to understand. It's doubtful if it can ever make up for that delay between deploying renewables and nuclear. So it's a net negative.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
realusername 3y ago
> So in that case, what lock in? The lock in to fossil fuel in Germany and other renewable heavy countries is pretty clear and nobody can deny that. The Russian war was a slap in that fossil fuel oriented strategy, it's time to learn some lessons about past failures. > The renewables industry is on an astronomic trajectory. From zero to saving the world, and it will succeed where nuclear has failed for 70 years. Precisely the reason why fossil fuels and nuclear are two sides of the same coin: highly dependant on lobbying and corruption. Haha, may I remind you what happened in Germany and France? The Russian government financed renewable lobbying to keep the dependency on the Russian gas, and unfortunately for us, that worked. Even Greenpeace themselves sold Russian gas as part of their renewable strategy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Planet_Energy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Planet_Energy. > But because it already failed, it won't suddenly miraculously succeed. Germany's renewable strategy failed multiple times already, and every time it fails, they double down financially. We're pretty deep into sunken cost fallacy and I hope other countries aren't stupid enough to follow them in the hole they dug themselves in. Last time they even wanted to build some new gas pipeline covering southern Europe (but it's only temporarily transporting gas, we swear again), that's what the lock-in of renewable does. https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/germany-italy-support-gas-pipeline/?cf-view https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/germany-italy-suppo... > Nuclear requires dirty backup during construction which is always very long. And renewable require dirty backups as long as they exist, easy to see why it's worse and why gas producers are pushing for it instead of nuclear plants.
- locallost 3y ago
  The Russian war has only accelerated renewables deployment on the EU level, including making it easier legally to get permits. Because now also politically there is no time to wait to get off fossil fuels. Your data is faulty and you make bad judgements. The Energiewende has brought real change not only to Germany, but to the whole world. It's pretty much the reason all developed countries deploy only renewables and do that for the last couple years. Considering it's the only real chance the world has right now, it was a huge success.
  - realusername 3y ago
    Oh yeah sure, for Germany I don't doubt it, they are doubling down and want to build even more gas pipelines. I think it's a lost cause and I don't think they will wake up until a real grid failure happens. For the other EU countries, there's now some pretty big thinking on the gas+renewable strategy which was promoted during the past decade and now came to a dead-end.
    - locallost 3y ago
      The EU will add around 70GW [1] of renewables this year, again a strong increase to last year, which again was a strong increase to the year before. You can come up with any conclusion if you don't know the facts. What's crazy though is that smart people predicted this would happen before it happened [2]. I am not that smart, but it takes also a certain talent to live in the present and not realize what is happening. You will wake up in a very different world a few years from now. [1] https://www.pv-tech.org/eu-to-add-69gw-renewables-capacity-in-2023/ https://www.pv-tech.org/eu-to-add-69gw-renewables-capacity-i... [2] https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/clean-energy/putins-war-will-drive-a-faster-shift-to-clean-energy https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/clean-energy/putins-war...
      - realusername 3y ago
        This is clearly some very bad news, these will lock-in fossil fuel removal and will prevent decarbonization. I was thinking that the full gas+renewable strategy was over but indeed maybe not yet... I guess the visit of Von Der Leyen to the Azerbaijani dictator also sets up the tone of the strategy for the future, swapping one dicatatorship to the other to keep the gas running.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

realusername 3y ago

> So in that case, what lock in? The lock in to fossil fuel in Germany and other renewable heavy countries is pretty clear and nobody can deny that. The Russian war was a slap in that fossil fuel oriented strategy, it's time to learn some lessons about past failures. > The renewables industry is on an astronomic trajectory. From zero to saving the world, and it will succeed where nuclear has failed for 70 years. Precisely the reason why fossil fuels and nuclear are two sides of the same coin: highly dependant on lobbying and corruption. Haha, may I remind you what happened in Germany and France? The Russian government financed renewable lobbying to keep the dependency on the Russian gas, and unfortunately for us, that worked. Even Greenpeace themselves sold Russian gas as part of their renewable strategy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Planet_Energy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Planet_Energy. > But because it already failed, it won't suddenly miraculously succeed. Germany's renewable strategy failed multiple times already, and every time it fails, they double down financially. We're pretty deep into sunken cost fallacy and I hope other countries aren't stupid enough to follow them in the hole they dug themselves in. Last time they even wanted to build some new gas pipeline covering southern Europe (but it's only temporarily transporting gas, we swear again), that's what the lock-in of renewable does. https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/germany-italy-support-gas-pipeline/?cf-view https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/germany-italy-suppo... > Nuclear requires dirty backup during construction which is always very long. And renewable require dirty backups as long as they exist, easy to see why it's worse and why gas producers are pushing for it instead of nuclear plants.

locallost 3y ago
The Russian war has only accelerated renewables deployment on the EU level, including making it easier legally to get permits. Because now also politically there is no time to wait to get off fossil fuels. Your data is faulty and you make bad judgements. The Energiewende has brought real change not only to Germany, but to the whole world. It's pretty much the reason all developed countries deploy only renewables and do that for the last couple years. Considering it's the only real chance the world has right now, it was a huge success.
- realusername 3y ago
  Oh yeah sure, for Germany I don't doubt it, they are doubling down and want to build even more gas pipelines. I think it's a lost cause and I don't think they will wake up until a real grid failure happens. For the other EU countries, there's now some pretty big thinking on the gas+renewable strategy which was promoted during the past decade and now came to a dead-end.
  - locallost 3y ago
    The EU will add around 70GW [1] of renewables this year, again a strong increase to last year, which again was a strong increase to the year before. You can come up with any conclusion if you don't know the facts. What's crazy though is that smart people predicted this would happen before it happened [2]. I am not that smart, but it takes also a certain talent to live in the present and not realize what is happening. You will wake up in a very different world a few years from now. [1] https://www.pv-tech.org/eu-to-add-69gw-renewables-capacity-in-2023/ https://www.pv-tech.org/eu-to-add-69gw-renewables-capacity-i... [2] https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/clean-energy/putins-war-will-drive-a-faster-shift-to-clean-energy https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/clean-energy/putins-war...
    - realusername 3y ago
      This is clearly some very bad news, these will lock-in fossil fuel removal and will prevent decarbonization. I was thinking that the full gas+renewable strategy was over but indeed maybe not yet... I guess the visit of Von Der Leyen to the Azerbaijani dictator also sets up the tone of the strategy for the future, swapping one dicatatorship to the other to keep the gas running.