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Strong El Nino.

29athrowaway 3y ago
Everyone is getting a free sauna experience https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis
- swader999 3y ago
  Most deposits of methane clathrate are in sediments too deep to respond rapidly,[96] and 2007 modelling by Archer suggests that the methane forcing derived from them should remain a minor component of the overall greenhouse effect.[97] Clathrate deposits destabilize from the deepest part of their stability zone, which is typically hundreds of metres below the seabed. A sustained increase in sea temperature will warm its way through the sediment eventually, and cause the shallowest, most marginal clathrate to start to break down; but it will typically take on the order of a thousand years or more for the temperature change to get that far into the seabed.[97] Further, subsequent research on midlatitude deposits in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean found that any methane released from the seafloor, no matter the source, fails to reach the atmosphere once the depth exceeds 430 m (1,411 ft), while geological characteristics of the area make it impossible for hydrates to exist at depths shallower than 550 m (1,804 ft).[98][99]
ch4s3 3y ago
Its disappointing that you're getting downvoted. We are in fact seeing a stronger than usual El Niño coupled with effects of climate change. The NOAA predicts "By winter, there is an 84% chance of greater than a moderate strength El Nino, and a 56% chance of a strong El Nino developing."[1] [1] https://www.weather.gov/news/230706-ElNino https://www.weather.gov/news/230706-ElNino
- vkou 3y ago
  How many years out of the past century have we had a 'strong El Nino', and why have none of the other ones hit anywhere close to 1.5C-above-average temperatures?
  - ch4s3 3y ago
    There have been 3 similarly strong El Niños in the past century and 2 of them had resulted in +1F temperature increases. Which lines up with my point that a strong El Niño coupled with existing climate change explains the increase.
  - swader999 3y ago
    Several, ask 1935... https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tmax/3/8/1895-2023 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-gla...?
- mimd 3y ago
  https://e360.yale.edu/digest/summer-2023-extreme-heat-causes https://e360.yale.edu/digest/summer-2023-extreme-heat-causes Several other compounding factors have been listed for this year as well.
  - ch4s3 3y ago
    Yeah, it's looking to be a rough year.
    - mimd 3y ago
      Though unpleasant, it at least sorta gives us a preview of 1.5C. Also lost in the conversation about 1.5C (or higher) via emissions, is that we could go even higher (or lower) depending on other cyclic and event factors. Thereby making some places that appear fine at risk over the long term.
- swader999 3y ago
  Yes, that's the gist of the article if you ignore the hype and read what the interviewed scientists are saying. Less pollution as well...

Strong El Nino.

Everyone is getting a free sauna experience https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

swader999 3y ago
Most deposits of methane clathrate are in sediments too deep to respond rapidly,[96] and 2007 modelling by Archer suggests that the methane forcing derived from them should remain a minor component of the overall greenhouse effect.[97] Clathrate deposits destabilize from the deepest part of their stability zone, which is typically hundreds of metres below the seabed. A sustained increase in sea temperature will warm its way through the sediment eventually, and cause the shallowest, most marginal clathrate to start to break down; but it will typically take on the order of a thousand years or more for the temperature change to get that far into the seabed.[97] Further, subsequent research on midlatitude deposits in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean found that any methane released from the seafloor, no matter the source, fails to reach the atmosphere once the depth exceeds 430 m (1,411 ft), while geological characteristics of the area make it impossible for hydrates to exist at depths shallower than 550 m (1,804 ft).[98][99]

ch4s3 3y ago

Its disappointing that you're getting downvoted. We are in fact seeing a stronger than usual El Niño coupled with effects of climate change. The NOAA predicts "By winter, there is an 84% chance of greater than a moderate strength El Nino, and a 56% chance of a strong El Nino developing."[1] [1] https://www.weather.gov/news/230706-ElNino https://www.weather.gov/news/230706-ElNino

vkou 3y ago
How many years out of the past century have we had a 'strong El Nino', and why have none of the other ones hit anywhere close to 1.5C-above-average temperatures?
- ch4s3 3y ago
  There have been 3 similarly strong El Niños in the past century and 2 of them had resulted in +1F temperature increases. Which lines up with my point that a strong El Niño coupled with existing climate change explains the increase.
- swader999 3y ago
  Several, ask 1935... https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tmax/3/8/1895-2023 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-gla...?
mimd 3y ago
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/summer-2023-extreme-heat-causes https://e360.yale.edu/digest/summer-2023-extreme-heat-causes Several other compounding factors have been listed for this year as well.
- ch4s3 3y ago
  Yeah, it's looking to be a rough year.
  - mimd 3y ago
    Though unpleasant, it at least sorta gives us a preview of 1.5C. Also lost in the conversation about 1.5C (or higher) via emissions, is that we could go even higher (or lower) depending on other cyclic and event factors. Thereby making some places that appear fine at risk over the long term.
swader999 3y ago
Yes, that's the gist of the article if you ignore the hype and read what the interviewed scientists are saying. Less pollution as well...