3 ms·

A good friend once described the lottery as "a tax on people with bad math skills" and I don't think I've played since.

bee_rider 3y ago
I don’t play the lottery, but I think this is not really correct. Playing the lottery must be an action that has a negative expected value (otherwise they’d go out of business). But if, rather than expected value, you are optimizing for “probability of having a hundred million dollars” or whatever, your options are: keep the money you would have spent on the ticket (0% chance of success) or buy the ticket (very small chance of success). So, I can see why people go for it. Especially if the ticket cost won’t make an actual difference to their life circumstances, and the winning money would.
- yunwal 3y ago
  I think it's still probably better to throw all the money down on an unlikely sports bet or some crazy options trade. The lottery is particularly skewed to the house.
  - Falkon1313 3y ago
    $2 isn't going to get much from an options trade, or a sports bet either.
  - dazc 3y ago
    I can see a potential problem here in that a sizeable win from a random bet is likely to encourage some people to keep making these bets in future, with inevitable consequences.
  - bluGill 3y ago
    At least with sports betting skill can make money. Just betting on the first place team to win over the last place team for example, it won't always win, but typically will. Of course bookies know this and so the payoff isn't enough to make a living on (if you can figure out the exception and bet only on the last place teams that win you can live well). Statistics are generally well studied in sports, but if you study how a team is coached you can find cases where they have a better than statistical chance to win a game they are expected to lose. Most people betting sports either always bet for their team, or bet on statistics, so if you can exploit something else.
  - NotSuspicious 3y ago
    You can buy a lottery ticket for every single big jackpot for a year and lose less than your average options trader. The value is the feeling you get that you and your family might not have to work for the rest of your lives. That feeling is clearly and obviously worth a dollar a day.
audiodude 3y ago
I don't love the lottery or scratch offs, though I don't mind playing occasionally. But what I can't stand is the self perceived moral superiority of people who are like "haha, lottery is for idiots!"
dazc 3y ago
People still win the lottery though, bad math skills or not.

I don’t play the lottery, but I think this is not really correct. Playing the lottery must be an action that has a negative expected value (otherwise they’d go out of business). But if, rather than expected value, you are optimizing for “probability of having a hundred million dollars” or whatever, your options are: keep the money you would have spent on the ticket (0% chance of success) or buy the ticket (very small chance of success). So, I can see why people go for it. Especially if the ticket cost won’t make an actual difference to their life circumstances, and the winning money would.

yunwal 3y ago
I think it's still probably better to throw all the money down on an unlikely sports bet or some crazy options trade. The lottery is particularly skewed to the house.
- Falkon1313 3y ago
  $2 isn't going to get much from an options trade, or a sports bet either.
- dazc 3y ago
  I can see a potential problem here in that a sizeable win from a random bet is likely to encourage some people to keep making these bets in future, with inevitable consequences.
- bluGill 3y ago
  At least with sports betting skill can make money. Just betting on the first place team to win over the last place team for example, it won't always win, but typically will. Of course bookies know this and so the payoff isn't enough to make a living on (if you can figure out the exception and bet only on the last place teams that win you can live well). Statistics are generally well studied in sports, but if you study how a team is coached you can find cases where they have a better than statistical chance to win a game they are expected to lose. Most people betting sports either always bet for their team, or bet on statistics, so if you can exploit something else.
- NotSuspicious 3y ago
  You can buy a lottery ticket for every single big jackpot for a year and lose less than your average options trader. The value is the feeling you get that you and your family might not have to work for the rest of your lives. That feeling is clearly and obviously worth a dollar a day.

audiodude 3y ago

I don't love the lottery or scratch offs, though I don't mind playing occasionally. But what I can't stand is the self perceived moral superiority of people who are like "haha, lottery is for idiots!"

dazc 3y ago

People still win the lottery though, bad math skills or not.