4 ms·

“inevitable”? hardly. how many first-year Leafs are out there on the original battery? a lot, i’d reckon most. how many dead Leafs are out there which were tota

by slondr 3y ago

“inevitable”? hardly. how many first-year Leafs are out there on the original battery? a lot, i’d reckon most. how many dead Leafs are out there which were totalled because of needing a new battery? certainly less than those which were totalled due to rust, collision, etc., ie the things that kill gas cars too.

asdff 3y ago
Not sure about leafs, but with teslas the batteries are only warrantied for 8 years and 150k miles. If you live somewhere with winters it probably diminishes a lot faster. With a gas car there are things you have to do around this mileage too e.g. timing belt and water pump but thats a fix thats an order of magnitude cheaper than an ev battery replacement.
- doctor_eval 3y ago
  Well if EV battery prices continue to decline at a similar rate - and there’s no reason not to expect this - then in 8-10 years the cost of the batteries is going to be about ¼ of today’s cost. So it doesn’t really seem like it will be such a burden.
  - PeterisP 3y ago
    Are the current replacement costs for batteries of 8-10 year old cars 1/4 of the cost that they used to be? The part costs for replacing batteries on 2014 Teslas or Leafs seem to be far more than that (https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/ev-battery-replacement-cost.html https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/ev-battery-replac...).
- raisedbyninjas 3y ago
  Tesla's warranty also guarantees 70% minimum of original battery life. That is similar to the degradation you'll see in a gas car. My 10 year old Mazda has lost about 12% of its fuel economy from new and it's never had engine trouble. Low income people will probably continue to buy used cars like they do now.
PeterisP 3y ago
Thing is, first-year Leaf really isn't an old car. Outside of the richest countries there are whole communities who'd never buy a new car, because the car they can afford to buy is a much-used cheap car that's the same age as the first-year Leaf is now; the rich countries/communities drive the first 10 years of a car, buy a new car, and the used car gets sold in poorer areas where most people don't ever buy new cars, because even the entry level new cars are like twice the cost they would afford. The ICE market provides a significant quantity of such used cars, which are cheap because of the wear and tear of being 10-15 years old but are still likely to be usable for a very long time if you maintain them properly. Are 15 year old Leafs a comparable alternative to 15 year old ICE Hondas? If after the EV revolution buying a 15 year old car ceases to be an affordable option because it will need an unreasonably expensive replacement (compared to the value of such an old car) to be usable for 10 more years, then that's a major societal change in the affordability of transport.
- rini17 3y ago
  So you imply refurbishing a car battery pack will be unreasonably expensive? Why? And real world data does not suggest that will be needed at all. Sure there are outliers like someone damaging battery by doing only supercharging but that's exception like not changing oil in ICE.
  - PeterisP 3y ago
    Batteries cost a significant fraction of a new EV cost (something like 30%) - in the context of populations who want/need vehicles which are affordable because they're used for 10-15 years and should cost a fraction of what a new vehicle costs, that's unreasonably expensive; that replacement costs more than that whole used car should cost. For example, the first reasonable site I googled for replacement costs (https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/ev-battery-replacement-cost.html https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/ev-battery-replac...) asserts that the battery replacement for a Leaf would cost on average $17,657 - but I'm talking about a target audience who currently would buy a $10,000 car and expect to use it for many more years; current ICE cars enable that, but if getting a usable range from a Leaf when they'll be 15-20 years old will require a replacement battery, that's not going to work out. The replacement batteries for full EVs (as opposed to hybrids with smaller capacity) are more expensive than even full engine replacements or full transmission replacements for old ICE cars, and even very old ICE cars usually don't need a full engine replacement but can work (with usable range!) with much cheaper repairs. In essence, my doubts are about the longevity of EV cars - what proportion of EVs will be usable/used when they will be 15, 20 or 25 years old (or after 100k / 200k miles), and how that compares to the same metric for the current ICE cars; a downgrade there won't be a big difference for the relatively wealthy buyers of new cars now, but it can be a kick in the balls for the poorer communities in a few decades if the affordable used (and I mean significantly used, not those which were just leased for a few years) cars cease to exist.

by slondr 3y ago

asdff 3y ago

Not sure about leafs, but with teslas the batteries are only warrantied for 8 years and 150k miles. If you live somewhere with winters it probably diminishes a lot faster. With a gas car there are things you have to do around this mileage too e.g. timing belt and water pump but thats a fix thats an order of magnitude cheaper than an ev battery replacement.

doctor_eval 3y ago
Well if EV battery prices continue to decline at a similar rate - and there’s no reason not to expect this - then in 8-10 years the cost of the batteries is going to be about ¼ of today’s cost. So it doesn’t really seem like it will be such a burden.
- PeterisP 3y ago
  Are the current replacement costs for batteries of 8-10 year old cars 1/4 of the cost that they used to be? The part costs for replacing batteries on 2014 Teslas or Leafs seem to be far more than that (https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/ev-battery-replacement-cost.html https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/ev-battery-replac...).
raisedbyninjas 3y ago
Tesla's warranty also guarantees 70% minimum of original battery life. That is similar to the degradation you'll see in a gas car. My 10 year old Mazda has lost about 12% of its fuel economy from new and it's never had engine trouble. Low income people will probably continue to buy used cars like they do now.

PeterisP 3y ago

Thing is, first-year Leaf really isn't an old car. Outside of the richest countries there are whole communities who'd never buy a new car, because the car they can afford to buy is a much-used cheap car that's the same age as the first-year Leaf is now; the rich countries/communities drive the first 10 years of a car, buy a new car, and the used car gets sold in poorer areas where most people don't ever buy new cars, because even the entry level new cars are like twice the cost they would afford. The ICE market provides a significant quantity of such used cars, which are cheap because of the wear and tear of being 10-15 years old but are still likely to be usable for a very long time if you maintain them properly. Are 15 year old Leafs a comparable alternative to 15 year old ICE Hondas? If after the EV revolution buying a 15 year old car ceases to be an affordable option because it will need an unreasonably expensive replacement (compared to the value of such an old car) to be usable for 10 more years, then that's a major societal change in the affordability of transport.

rini17 3y ago
So you imply refurbishing a car battery pack will be unreasonably expensive? Why? And real world data does not suggest that will be needed at all. Sure there are outliers like someone damaging battery by doing only supercharging but that's exception like not changing oil in ICE.
- PeterisP 3y ago
  Batteries cost a significant fraction of a new EV cost (something like 30%) - in the context of populations who want/need vehicles which are affordable because they're used for 10-15 years and should cost a fraction of what a new vehicle costs, that's unreasonably expensive; that replacement costs more than that whole used car should cost. For example, the first reasonable site I googled for replacement costs (https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/ev-battery-replacement-cost.html https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/ev-battery-replac...) asserts that the battery replacement for a Leaf would cost on average $17,657 - but I'm talking about a target audience who currently would buy a $10,000 car and expect to use it for many more years; current ICE cars enable that, but if getting a usable range from a Leaf when they'll be 15-20 years old will require a replacement battery, that's not going to work out. The replacement batteries for full EVs (as opposed to hybrids with smaller capacity) are more expensive than even full engine replacements or full transmission replacements for old ICE cars, and even very old ICE cars usually don't need a full engine replacement but can work (with usable range!) with much cheaper repairs. In essence, my doubts are about the longevity of EV cars - what proportion of EVs will be usable/used when they will be 15, 20 or 25 years old (or after 100k / 200k miles), and how that compares to the same metric for the current ICE cars; a downgrade there won't be a big difference for the relatively wealthy buyers of new cars now, but it can be a kick in the balls for the poorer communities in a few decades if the affordable used (and I mean significantly used, not those which were just leased for a few years) cars cease to exist.