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This feels like a good time to bring up the lead-crime hypothesis (flaws and all). For those who don't know, there's a strong (if faulty) correlation between le

This feels like a good time to bring up the lead-crime hypothesis (flaws and all). For those who don't know, there's a strong (if faulty) correlation between lead levels in preschool children and crime rates: https://www.vox.com/2016/1/14/17991876/crime-drop-murder-lead-exposure-gasoline-environment https://www.vox.com/2016/1/14/17991876/crime-drop-murder-lea... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis Regardless of what you think about the hypothesis, the growth and crunch in lead levels during the last many decades is astounding and probably still has many bad effects on IQ and related factors, at least in the US

jeffbee 3y ago
The subsequent evidence is so strong that I don't think it's appropriate to call it faulty. In the paper "Life After Lead" they study a boundary effect of children who were just above and just below treatment thresholds for blood lead levels and the outcomes in terms of crime, school success, etc are stark. Figure 4(F) particularly. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20160056 https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20160056
- harles 3y ago
  I haven’t read the paper, but I wonder how well they control for economic status. I’d expect the better off a family is the less lead they have in their life - and I’d expect economic status to actually be a cause of better education, health, incarceration, etc.
  - waster 3y ago
    They said “we compare outcomes for children who are similar across observable characteristics but differ in eligibility for intervention due to blood lead test results.” Economic status is observable, so ide guess it’s I caused; but I only read the abstract.
npunt 3y ago
I like this roundup [1] as it hammers the point home with tons of observations across cultures, times, contexts, and methods of analysis. For instance, different cultures phased out lead gas at different times, and their subsequent crime charts were offset by the equivalent years. [1]: https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/02/an-updated-lead-crime-roundup-for-2018/ https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/02/an-updated-le...
- Gigachad 3y ago
  The car and its consequences has been a disaster for society. Even today we are pumping so many toxins in to the air to deliver a slower, less efficient, and more expensive form of transport. And it's not a problem that EVs or self driving cars can solve since a huge amount of the pollution comes from tires.
  - hodgesrm 3y ago
    > Even today we are pumping so many toxins in to the air to deliver a slower, less efficient, and more expensive form of transport. Slower than what?
    - mwint 3y ago
      [flagged]
      - rfrey 3y ago
        Ah yes, the infamous "they", who are plotting to take away your cars, your guns, and your hamburgers.
        CrazyPyroLinux 3y ago
        I mean, yeah - They're pretty enthusiastically telling us that's what they want to do. It's not a conspiracy theory if they're actually advertising it...
thriftwy 3y ago
Late Soviet writers such as Strugatsky brothers would often bring out the topic of barbarism and brutality which is characteristic of Human race and had to be fought at all times... ...which is, as far as we know now, not innate but looks like symptoms of chronic lead poisoning.
- SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
  Lead poisoning is far from the _only_ cause of the darker side of human nature.
  - thriftwy 3y ago
    The surprising is that this side turned to be manageable. People around them ended up not wanting to actively destroy themselves and their environment. That was the big surprise of 00's and it coincided with aftermatch of when the lead gas was outlawed. It seems based on the last years' news that the USA is having a reenactment of that now, though. I wonder what it takes this time to fix things.
darkerside 3y ago
What is a faulty correlation? They're correlated or they're not. There's may be a faulty casual attribution, but that is another topic.
- Willish42 3y ago
  I had meant that despite the statistical correlation being objective and strong, the logic behind a causal link was faulty. That might not be the case though (?), see https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/02/an-updated-lead-crime-roundup-for-2018/ https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/02/an-updated-le... from the other reply
  - keepamovin 3y ago
    Do you mean faulty, logic, or faulty, supporting evidence? I think if something is plausible, but unsupported by evidence, the logic can be sound, but the supporting evidence faulty; but if something is implausible, then it would be the logic that was faulty and to me it seems like that crime and behavioral changes are caused by lead is certainly plausible, so I don’t think it’s a logical failure here. It may just be a failure of the evidence. So.. How do you know the evidence is faulty, though? I mean, can you definitively prove it’s faulty? if you can’t, then you have to consider there’s a possibility that it’s causal?
    - Willish42 3y ago
      See above. The Vox article made this seem like logic around the hypothesis is more faulty than it probably is, given other replies. I understand my meaning might've confused HN commenters but I genuinely feel that the intent of my words in the initial comment is intuitive, and don't have time or bandwidth to argue about the semantics. I am sorry for the confusion. I obviously can't definitively prove it is faulty, and was merely trying (likely incorrectly so) to summarize the believed veracity of the hypothesis.
      - keepamovin 3y ago
m463 3y ago
I remember reading somewhere that lead exposure might correlate with poverty. Is this accounted for?
- theptip 3y ago
  It does correlate, and it is accounted for. We have evidence to believe the causal arrow points lead=>poverty. This is because the natural experiments of phasing out leaded gasoline in different countries at effectively randomized times produce subsequent decreases in lead poisoning (and downstream crime). This is as close to a controlled "give one population lead poisoning" experiment as you can ethically run.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
    But there is also poverty => poor housing in less desirable areas => more pollution in general. Including Air pollution, car exhausts, lead from leaded gasoline. This is well known e.g. (1) and seems like it would be a large effect. I'm not saying that this invalidates the studies on lead, I'm sure that the researchers know how to do it far better than I do, and have spend a lot more time on accounting for it; just that poverty drives increased pollution exposure, as a general rule. 1) https://www.london.gov.uk/%20New%20report%20shows%20shocking%20difference%20in%20air%20quality%20breathed%20by%20London%E2%80%99s%20communities%2C%20with%20Black%20and%20diaspora%20communities%20worst%20affected https://www.london.gov.uk/%20New%20report%20shows%20shocking...
    - barrkel 3y ago
      For poverty effects to dominate across countries, there would need to be a causal relationship between phasing out leaded petrol and countries' distribution of income; it looks implausible at first glance. It's much easier to phase out leaded petrol than to make persistent changes in the distribution of income. It would be very surprising if all countries not only did so, but did so at the same time.
      - SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
fransje26 3y ago
[flagged]
rufus_foreman 3y ago
I think the "crime is caused by exposure to lead" hypothesis has taken a major hit in recent years. The homicide rate went from 4.99 per 100,000 in 2019 to 6.81 per 100,000 in 2021. There was no sudden increase in lead exposure, either in recent years, or decades ago, that can explain that increase. I'm not saying that lead has no effect on crime, but some people were claiming that lead exposure was the single primary cause of violent crime. When you get sudden changes in the crime rate like that, it's pretty clear that something else is going on.
- nate_meurer 3y ago
  The existence of other variables obviously does nothing to eliminate the lead exposure variable. > some people were claiming that lead exposure was the single primary cause of violent crime. Examples?

jeffbee 3y ago

The subsequent evidence is so strong that I don't think it's appropriate to call it faulty. In the paper "Life After Lead" they study a boundary effect of children who were just above and just below treatment thresholds for blood lead levels and the outcomes in terms of crime, school success, etc are stark. Figure 4(F) particularly. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20160056 https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20160056

harles 3y ago
I haven’t read the paper, but I wonder how well they control for economic status. I’d expect the better off a family is the less lead they have in their life - and I’d expect economic status to actually be a cause of better education, health, incarceration, etc.
- waster 3y ago
  They said “we compare outcomes for children who are similar across observable characteristics but differ in eligibility for intervention due to blood lead test results.” Economic status is observable, so ide guess it’s I caused; but I only read the abstract.

npunt 3y ago

I like this roundup [1] as it hammers the point home with tons of observations across cultures, times, contexts, and methods of analysis. For instance, different cultures phased out lead gas at different times, and their subsequent crime charts were offset by the equivalent years. [1]: https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/02/an-updated-lead-crime-roundup-for-2018/ https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/02/an-updated-le...

Gigachad 3y ago
The car and its consequences has been a disaster for society. Even today we are pumping so many toxins in to the air to deliver a slower, less efficient, and more expensive form of transport. And it's not a problem that EVs or self driving cars can solve since a huge amount of the pollution comes from tires.
- hodgesrm 3y ago
  > Even today we are pumping so many toxins in to the air to deliver a slower, less efficient, and more expensive form of transport. Slower than what?
  - mwint 3y ago
    [flagged]
    - rfrey 3y ago
      Ah yes, the infamous "they", who are plotting to take away your cars, your guns, and your hamburgers.
      - CrazyPyroLinux 3y ago
        I mean, yeah - They're pretty enthusiastically telling us that's what they want to do. It's not a conspiracy theory if they're actually advertising it...

thriftwy 3y ago

Late Soviet writers such as Strugatsky brothers would often bring out the topic of barbarism and brutality which is characteristic of Human race and had to be fought at all times... ...which is, as far as we know now, not innate but looks like symptoms of chronic lead poisoning.

SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
Lead poisoning is far from the _only_ cause of the darker side of human nature.
- thriftwy 3y ago
  The surprising is that this side turned to be manageable. People around them ended up not wanting to actively destroy themselves and their environment. That was the big surprise of 00's and it coincided with aftermatch of when the lead gas was outlawed. It seems based on the last years' news that the USA is having a reenactment of that now, though. I wonder what it takes this time to fix things.

darkerside 3y ago

What is a faulty correlation? They're correlated or they're not. There's may be a faulty casual attribution, but that is another topic.

Willish42 3y ago
I had meant that despite the statistical correlation being objective and strong, the logic behind a causal link was faulty. That might not be the case though (?), see https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/02/an-updated-lead-crime-roundup-for-2018/ https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/02/an-updated-le... from the other reply
- keepamovin 3y ago
  Do you mean faulty, logic, or faulty, supporting evidence? I think if something is plausible, but unsupported by evidence, the logic can be sound, but the supporting evidence faulty; but if something is implausible, then it would be the logic that was faulty and to me it seems like that crime and behavioral changes are caused by lead is certainly plausible, so I don’t think it’s a logical failure here. It may just be a failure of the evidence. So.. How do you know the evidence is faulty, though? I mean, can you definitively prove it’s faulty? if you can’t, then you have to consider there’s a possibility that it’s causal?
  - Willish42 3y ago
    See above. The Vox article made this seem like logic around the hypothesis is more faulty than it probably is, given other replies. I understand my meaning might've confused HN commenters but I genuinely feel that the intent of my words in the initial comment is intuitive, and don't have time or bandwidth to argue about the semantics. I am sorry for the confusion. I obviously can't definitively prove it is faulty, and was merely trying (likely incorrectly so) to summarize the believed veracity of the hypothesis.
    - keepamovin 3y ago

m463 3y ago

I remember reading somewhere that lead exposure might correlate with poverty. Is this accounted for?

theptip 3y ago
It does correlate, and it is accounted for. We have evidence to believe the causal arrow points lead=>poverty. This is because the natural experiments of phasing out leaded gasoline in different countries at effectively randomized times produce subsequent decreases in lead poisoning (and downstream crime). This is as close to a controlled "give one population lead poisoning" experiment as you can ethically run.
- SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
  But there is also poverty => poor housing in less desirable areas => more pollution in general. Including Air pollution, car exhausts, lead from leaded gasoline. This is well known e.g. (1) and seems like it would be a large effect. I'm not saying that this invalidates the studies on lead, I'm sure that the researchers know how to do it far better than I do, and have spend a lot more time on accounting for it; just that poverty drives increased pollution exposure, as a general rule. 1) https://www.london.gov.uk/%20New%20report%20shows%20shocking%20difference%20in%20air%20quality%20breathed%20by%20London%E2%80%99s%20communities%2C%20with%20Black%20and%20diaspora%20communities%20worst%20affected https://www.london.gov.uk/%20New%20report%20shows%20shocking...
  - barrkel 3y ago
    For poverty effects to dominate across countries, there would need to be a causal relationship between phasing out leaded petrol and countries' distribution of income; it looks implausible at first glance. It's much easier to phase out leaded petrol than to make persistent changes in the distribution of income. It would be very surprising if all countries not only did so, but did so at the same time.
    - SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

fransje26 3y ago

[flagged]

rufus_foreman 3y ago

I think the "crime is caused by exposure to lead" hypothesis has taken a major hit in recent years. The homicide rate went from 4.99 per 100,000 in 2019 to 6.81 per 100,000 in 2021. There was no sudden increase in lead exposure, either in recent years, or decades ago, that can explain that increase. I'm not saying that lead has no effect on crime, but some people were claiming that lead exposure was the single primary cause of violent crime. When you get sudden changes in the crime rate like that, it's pretty clear that something else is going on.

nate_meurer 3y ago
The existence of other variables obviously does nothing to eliminate the lead exposure variable. > some people were claiming that lead exposure was the single primary cause of violent crime. Examples?