e: Oh I see, you were talking about the California article I linked, which is by a different author. That said, I think the section you are discussing is just a

e: Oh I see, you were talking about the California article I linked, which is by a different author. That said, I think the section you are discussing is just about potential flaws in the causal model and why they think it is unlikely, not their primary reasoning. Maybe a different article, the one I am talking about conducted a causal estimate of the carbon averted using synthetic controls, not at all the argument that you are stating [0]. Again, all of this debate would be easy to end with a controlled trial that non-profits like Verra will never do because of what they would reveal. Do you work in this industry? I am curious if this is a case of 'It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.' [0]: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2301.03354.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/2301.03354.pdf