4 ms·

Where’s the data to back up the claim. The site doesn’t appear to link to the data.

by vuln 3y ago

toomuchtodo 3y ago
Another argument is that only one coal fired plant in the US is cheaper to operate than replacing the rest with renewables, Dry Fork in Wyoming. https://archive.ph/BBmOP https://archive.ph/BBmOP | https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/30/us-coal-more-expensive-than-renewable-energy-study https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/30/us-coal-more... https://www.gem.wiki/Dry_Fork_Station https://www.gem.wiki/Dry_Fork_Station https://web.archive.org/web/20230921183659/https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Coal-Cost-Crossover-3.0.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20230921183659/https://energyinn... > This report finds 99 percent of the existing U.S. coal fleet is more expensive to run compared to replacement by new solar or wind. Replacing coal plants with local wind and solar would also save enough to finance nearly 150 gigawatts of four-hour battery storage, over 60 percent of the coal fleet’s capacity, and generate $589 billion in new investment across the U.S. Our report provides policy recommendations to facilitate a just transition through the Coal Cost Crossover. (obligatory "base load is a myth", you overbuild renewables in order to make up for firm generation shortfall, you'll see some fossil gas generation uptick until firm renewables and more batteries drive out fossil gas generation, etc)
- ipaddr 3y ago
  4 hour storage will deplete quickly. You can't get away from base load generation unless you want periods without power
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    NREL disagrees, and states that battery storage is sufficient to hit 80% renewables penetration. Seasonal storage remains to be solved for. > The main scenarios modelled show how very low-carbon and high renewable energy grids can be enabled, in the range of 80% by 2050. However, to get to 100% decarbonisation scenarios, it’s very likely variable renewable energy (VRE) paired with diurnal storage will not be enough. Seasonal storage — with durations of days, or even weeks or months — from technologies like hydrogen could help push the grid to fully carbon-free, especially if they can become cost-competitive. You could also just burn fossil gas for that last bit if direct air carbon capture gets cheap enough to use the atmosphere as the battery, pulling the carbon from combustion back underground in stable state when clean energy is available and cheap (and is why Climeworks' Orca installation runs in Iceland on clean geothermal power). Enough sunlight falls on the Earth every 2 minutes to power humanity for a year, so we can kick the can on the last, hardest part until we get there. https://www.energy-storage.news/nrel-rapid-growth-of-energy-storage-to-enable-high-shares-of-renewable-energy-on-us-grid/ https://www.energy-storage.news/nrel-rapid-growth-of-energy-... https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/81779.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/81779.pdf (TLDR We can safely kill coal today with limited impact)
    - specialist 3y ago
      Yes and: Advanced geothermal is now proven goodness. It'll handily fill any gaps between PV and wind.
scrlk 3y ago
I assume it's from "Stranded Assets and Subcritical Coal", published in March 2015: https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2022-04/Stranded-Assets-and-Subcritical-Coal.pdf https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2022-04... [pdf]
- jandrese 3y ago
  2015 is kind of a long time ago when talking about the power grid. Are there not any more recent studies?

Where’s the data to back up the claim. The site doesn’t appear to link to the data.

by vuln 3y ago

Where’s the data to back up the claim. The site doesn’t appear to link to the data.

Another argument is that only one coal fired plant in the US is cheaper to operate than replacing the rest with renewables, Dry Fork in Wyoming. https://archive.ph/BBmOP https://archive.ph/BBmOP | https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/30/us-coal-more-expensive-than-renewable-energy-study https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/30/us-coal-more... https://www.gem.wiki/Dry_Fork_Station https://www.gem.wiki/Dry_Fork_Station https://web.archive.org/web/20230921183659/https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Coal-Cost-Crossover-3.0.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20230921183659/https://energyinn... > This report finds 99 percent of the existing U.S. coal fleet is more expensive to run compared to replacement by new solar or wind. Replacing coal plants with local wind and solar would also save enough to finance nearly 150 gigawatts of four-hour battery storage, over 60 percent of the coal fleet’s capacity, and generate $589 billion in new investment across the U.S. Our report provides policy recommendations to facilitate a just transition through the Coal Cost Crossover. (obligatory "base load is a myth", you overbuild renewables in order to make up for firm generation shortfall, you'll see some fossil gas generation uptick until firm renewables and more batteries drive out fossil gas generation, etc)

ipaddr 3y ago
4 hour storage will deplete quickly. You can't get away from base load generation unless you want periods without power
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  NREL disagrees, and states that battery storage is sufficient to hit 80% renewables penetration. Seasonal storage remains to be solved for. > The main scenarios modelled show how very low-carbon and high renewable energy grids can be enabled, in the range of 80% by 2050. However, to get to 100% decarbonisation scenarios, it’s very likely variable renewable energy (VRE) paired with diurnal storage will not be enough. Seasonal storage — with durations of days, or even weeks or months — from technologies like hydrogen could help push the grid to fully carbon-free, especially if they can become cost-competitive. You could also just burn fossil gas for that last bit if direct air carbon capture gets cheap enough to use the atmosphere as the battery, pulling the carbon from combustion back underground in stable state when clean energy is available and cheap (and is why Climeworks' Orca installation runs in Iceland on clean geothermal power). Enough sunlight falls on the Earth every 2 minutes to power humanity for a year, so we can kick the can on the last, hardest part until we get there. https://www.energy-storage.news/nrel-rapid-growth-of-energy-storage-to-enable-high-shares-of-renewable-energy-on-us-grid/ https://www.energy-storage.news/nrel-rapid-growth-of-energy-... https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/81779.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/81779.pdf (TLDR We can safely kill coal today with limited impact)
  - specialist 3y ago
    Yes and: Advanced geothermal is now proven goodness. It'll handily fill any gaps between PV and wind.

scrlk 3y ago

I assume it's from "Stranded Assets and Subcritical Coal", published in March 2015: https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2022-04/Stranded-Assets-and-Subcritical-Coal.pdf https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2022-04... [pdf]

jandrese 3y ago
2015 is kind of a long time ago when talking about the power grid. Are there not any more recent studies?