IANAL, but probably comes down to whether you had access to material non public information. Ie, what gave you a hunch? If it's anything non public that could h

IANAL, but probably comes down to whether you had access to material non public information. Ie, what gave you a hunch? If it's anything non public that could have also given others a hunch, had they known like you did, it's probably material non public information. There's no safe harbor for probabilistic insider trading.