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LOL - 700 crashes with no known survivors attributable to FSD? You're claiming 700 people have died while operating FSD? Friend, that's not a worst-case asses

LOL - 700 crashes with no known survivors attributable to FSD? You're claiming 700 people have died while operating FSD? Friend, that's not a worst-case assessment. That's just a lie. But to be sure, there will be people who die. That is true of nearly every human activity. We have to accommodate a non-zero death rate. Were to not, then we'd immediately outlaw driving altogether, which would impoverish millions. Your angry "prove it's safe" argument is an ideological position not grounded in any useful reality. Their numbers evidence the technology is very safe. It is not perfectly safe because nothing is.

Veserv 3y ago
So not a single one of the 700 crashes with no known survivors that Tesla reported to NHTSA, ~95% of all crashes they have reported, had any fatalities? That sounds really easy to prove. Tesla can just get some lawyers to query the police reports. The police reports will record any injuries and fatalities and then Tesla can update their NHTSA incident reports to fill in the police report boxes that they chose not to fill in during their initial and follow-up reports. Or are you arguing that Tesla, who knows exactly where every crash occurred and who is the nearly trillion dollar company, has no obligation to do any investigation? Instead it is the public's job to reverse engineer Tesla's crash information from the redacted reports and then donate time and money to do it for Tesla. Furthermore, you have completely deflected on providing any support for the numbers in the Tesla safety report you keep quoting. Tesla's safety report claims 4.8 million miles per accident. You and Tesla have exactly zero evidence supporting that number except for Tesla's word that Tesla's cars are super safe which is why you should give Tesla money. Tesla will not even answer a simple question like how many accidents occurred in each quarter, let alone proper reporting like Waymo who indicates exactly which NHTSA reported crashes they corresponded to and the nature of the crash. You complain about publicly auditable numbers reported by Tesla to NHTSA while pushing completely unsupported numbers self-reported by the entity with the largest possible conflict of interest as if they are facts. Also your last point railing about proving things safe is a strawman. Proving something safe does not mean "proving it perfectly safe", it means demonstrating the desired level of safety through rigorous investigations producing well-documented, auditable evidence confirmed through unbiased, third party access to the data and data generation methodology. Which is already the long-standing standard procedure in safety-critical systems in industries such as aviation, medical, automotive, transportation, and industrial control. It does not mean publishing a unaudited number while doing no investigations and preventing third party or regulatory access to the raw data like what Tesla does. That is called safety reporting malpractice.
- hcurtiss 3y ago
  I think it's quite likely that, if people had died, the press would have covered it (as they have so salaciously covered the accidents). I have no reason to believe Tesla is lying. But, before we barrel down that path, why don't you tell all of us what level of death would be acceptable to you. Would you be willing to endorse FSD if it were, on average, as safe, or more safe, than human drivers?
  - Veserv 3y ago
    If any autonomous driving system could demonstrate safety at or above human drivers supported by a robust dataset generated from a rigorous investigative process and made available to credible unbiased third party watchdogs or regulatory agencies that confirm the findings then I would support the further testing and deployment of such a system. Now your turn, how many people has Tesla ADAS software killed and what is the acceptable rate? As to the data reporting I demand, which is longstanding standard in safety-critical system deployments, Tesla is literally the furthest from that. They deny all third party access, voluntarily publish no raw data, demand the maximum redaction in all mandatory government reporting, and hide data except when selectively releasing private data out of context in press conferences only when it portrays them positively and burying the rest. They choose to do no investigations so they will not be required to report negative outcomes, they sue reporters, threaten news organizations and employers with lawsuits to make them silence their employees, and direct abuse against regulators to force them to recuse themselves from investigations. Tesla uses every trick in the book to prevent a critical look at their numbers. There is exactly zero reason to believe even a completely transparent company about the safety of their own products. A company as dishonest and cagey as Tesla providing numbers with zero supporting evidence, who has a history of cherry picking misleading good-sounding data, should have their numbers resoundingly ignored.
    - hcurtiss 3y ago
      Nah, I think they've produced sufficient evidence to shift the burden. Where's your evidence of all these deaths? This is safety critical in the way that all cars are safety critical. This is not an airplane, and this is not the FAA. If we're going to drag Tesla through the mud, as you seem hell-bent on doing, I think it should be on you to evidence this epidemic of Tesla deaths. You cannot because there is no such epidemic.

Veserv 3y ago

So not a single one of the 700 crashes with no known survivors that Tesla reported to NHTSA, ~95% of all crashes they have reported, had any fatalities? That sounds really easy to prove. Tesla can just get some lawyers to query the police reports. The police reports will record any injuries and fatalities and then Tesla can update their NHTSA incident reports to fill in the police report boxes that they chose not to fill in during their initial and follow-up reports. Or are you arguing that Tesla, who knows exactly where every crash occurred and who is the nearly trillion dollar company, has no obligation to do any investigation? Instead it is the public's job to reverse engineer Tesla's crash information from the redacted reports and then donate time and money to do it for Tesla. Furthermore, you have completely deflected on providing any support for the numbers in the Tesla safety report you keep quoting. Tesla's safety report claims 4.8 million miles per accident. You and Tesla have exactly zero evidence supporting that number except for Tesla's word that Tesla's cars are super safe which is why you should give Tesla money. Tesla will not even answer a simple question like how many accidents occurred in each quarter, let alone proper reporting like Waymo who indicates exactly which NHTSA reported crashes they corresponded to and the nature of the crash. You complain about publicly auditable numbers reported by Tesla to NHTSA while pushing completely unsupported numbers self-reported by the entity with the largest possible conflict of interest as if they are facts. Also your last point railing about proving things safe is a strawman. Proving something safe does not mean "proving it perfectly safe", it means demonstrating the desired level of safety through rigorous investigations producing well-documented, auditable evidence confirmed through unbiased, third party access to the data and data generation methodology. Which is already the long-standing standard procedure in safety-critical systems in industries such as aviation, medical, automotive, transportation, and industrial control. It does not mean publishing a unaudited number while doing no investigations and preventing third party or regulatory access to the raw data like what Tesla does. That is called safety reporting malpractice.

hcurtiss 3y ago
I think it's quite likely that, if people had died, the press would have covered it (as they have so salaciously covered the accidents). I have no reason to believe Tesla is lying. But, before we barrel down that path, why don't you tell all of us what level of death would be acceptable to you. Would you be willing to endorse FSD if it were, on average, as safe, or more safe, than human drivers?
- Veserv 3y ago
  If any autonomous driving system could demonstrate safety at or above human drivers supported by a robust dataset generated from a rigorous investigative process and made available to credible unbiased third party watchdogs or regulatory agencies that confirm the findings then I would support the further testing and deployment of such a system. Now your turn, how many people has Tesla ADAS software killed and what is the acceptable rate? As to the data reporting I demand, which is longstanding standard in safety-critical system deployments, Tesla is literally the furthest from that. They deny all third party access, voluntarily publish no raw data, demand the maximum redaction in all mandatory government reporting, and hide data except when selectively releasing private data out of context in press conferences only when it portrays them positively and burying the rest. They choose to do no investigations so they will not be required to report negative outcomes, they sue reporters, threaten news organizations and employers with lawsuits to make them silence their employees, and direct abuse against regulators to force them to recuse themselves from investigations. Tesla uses every trick in the book to prevent a critical look at their numbers. There is exactly zero reason to believe even a completely transparent company about the safety of their own products. A company as dishonest and cagey as Tesla providing numbers with zero supporting evidence, who has a history of cherry picking misleading good-sounding data, should have their numbers resoundingly ignored.
  - hcurtiss 3y ago
    Nah, I think they've produced sufficient evidence to shift the burden. Where's your evidence of all these deaths? This is safety critical in the way that all cars are safety critical. This is not an airplane, and this is not the FAA. If we're going to drag Tesla through the mud, as you seem hell-bent on doing, I think it should be on you to evidence this epidemic of Tesla deaths. You cannot because there is no such epidemic.