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When you are planning to ban gasoline-powered cars in 2035, as the EU is, you should not make the alternative more expensive, unless your aim is to reduce the n

When you are planning to ban gasoline-powered cars in 2035, as the EU is, you should not make the alternative more expensive, unless your aim is to reduce the number of people who can afford to own car. I suspect that is the aim, and when the public catches on in Europe and the U.S., the gas car ban may be reversed. current WSJ article: "Car Prices Might Be Unsustainable for Buyers. Surging loan delinquencies signal that many consumers can’t afford their auto loans" https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/car-prices-might-be-unsustainable-for-buyers-18d7b395 https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/car-prices-might-be-uns...

PaulHoule 3y ago
Well, if your goal is to cut carbon emissions getting somebody to be car-free is probably better than an electric car. I think the right policy for carbon control would be a global carbon tax that is rebated to make it fair and revenue neutral although people won't agree about the "fair" and that probably makes it impossible. If an electric car has 1/3 the carbon footprint of an electric car (say), such a policy effectively gives you a 2/3 rebate for the electric car and a full rebate for no car at all. In Europe there really is good public transportation in many places and better alternatives so it wouldn't be cruel to discourage car ownership the way it would be in most of the US. I'd imagine some EU legislators and administrators really do want to discourage car ownership systematically but I think there is an element to policy which is shambolic and involves "unintended consequences" and as the EU has many separate policies and interest groups (e.g. German carmakers that dream of an e-Fuel future) it will play out in complex ways. At least in the short term the "tough on China" policies will put the brake on the energy transition but in the long term we might build some overcapacity in the rest of the world that will speed things up.

PaulHoule 3y ago

Well, if your goal is to cut carbon emissions getting somebody to be car-free is probably better than an electric car. I think the right policy for carbon control would be a global carbon tax that is rebated to make it fair and revenue neutral although people won't agree about the "fair" and that probably makes it impossible. If an electric car has 1/3 the carbon footprint of an electric car (say), such a policy effectively gives you a 2/3 rebate for the electric car and a full rebate for no car at all. In Europe there really is good public transportation in many places and better alternatives so it wouldn't be cruel to discourage car ownership the way it would be in most of the US. I'd imagine some EU legislators and administrators really do want to discourage car ownership systematically but I think there is an element to policy which is shambolic and involves "unintended consequences" and as the EU has many separate policies and interest groups (e.g. German carmakers that dream of an e-Fuel future) it will play out in complex ways. At least in the short term the "tough on China" policies will put the brake on the energy transition but in the long term we might build some overcapacity in the rest of the world that will speed things up.