"If you can know the future while pretending to not know the future, you will be reach" There's so much in the article that fundamentally knows what the future

"If you can know the future while pretending to not know the future, you will be reach" There's so much in the article that fundamentally knows what the future is. The most egregious point for me was disussing Pavlov in an 1884 context. (His discovery of classical conditionings dates to 1890 and later) Assuming a four cent profit requires assuming large inflation over the intervening time span. (It's been ~3000%). Inflation in 1884 was barely understood, and mostly treated as a devaluation of currency, not an increase in price. Population growth to 8 billion people required modern medicine and modern agriculture at the least. (World population less than doubled over the 19th century - assuming it'd quadruple again, especially given that the Malthusian trap was a prevailing thought concept, would be an extremely bold assumption) And so the entire pretext that you could've predicted this path kind of falls apart. We can retcon an explanation, but we can retcon an explanation for any success easily. So easily, we have a picture of a bullet-riddled plane to handily explain it.