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Suppose to have an idiotic model like for example "investing is flipping a coin". Then you calculate how many coin flips waiting a certain amount of time corres
by sdfghswe 3y ago
Suppose to have an idiotic model like for example "investing is flipping a coin". Then you calculate how many coin flips waiting a certain amount of time corresponds to. Then you conclude, see, these N people are the lucky coin flippers.
Now suppose of all the crazy investing philosophies in existence, you learn that all N greatest investors (or "N luckiest coin flippers" according to you), suppose you learn all of them have the exact same investing philosophy.
Would this make you reconsider whether your "investing is coin flipping" model is a useful model?
- Luc 3y agoI might as well link to it for those who haven't read it: "The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville" https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/sites/valueinvesting/files/files/Buffett1984.pdf https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/sites/valueinvesting/files/fil...
- sdfghswe 3y agoI take quiet satisfaction imagining that I say really smart stuff I read elsewhere, get dismissed by morons, and then the morons 3 years later read the exact same idea from a reputable source and go "hold on a second, that's what that guy on those forums was saying" :-)
- sokoloff 3y agoI think you're likely wildly over-estimating the number of times that last thought enters into people's minds (even if it's the case, I think it doesn't occur to most people).
- hiddencost 3y agoTypically their model is regulatory capture.
- robertlagrant 3y agoRegulatory capture doesn't generate money.
- sdfghswe 3y agoThese people like repeating their memes, let them.