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First, the government would push the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars - currently set to come into force in 2030 - back to 2035. The 2030 date has

by themgt 3y ago

First, the government would push the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars - currently set to come into force in 2030 - back to 2035. The 2030 date has been government policy since 2020. The rubber is about to really about to hit the road between climate policy and geopolitics. China is increasing dominating ~all the industries required for the green transition. At this point there'd be no remotely plausible way to enforce a 2030 EV car requirement than to wind up with 70% of your auto market being Chinese EVs. It would be government mandated seppuku of basically all US / UK / European auto makers other than Tesla. It would not only stir huge "populist" anger domestically but critically undermine the direction leaders want to take geopolitically towards China. We're stuck between a rock and a hard place and the only solution is to re-learn how to do advanced industrial production domestically at scale and price-competitive. It's no longer clear that's possible on any relevant timeframe though.

Dalewyn 3y ago
>The rubber is about to really about to hit the road between climate policy and geopolitics. China is increasing dominating ~all the industries required for the green transition. At this point there'd be no remotely plausible way to enforce a 2030 EV car requirement than to wind up with 70% of your auto market being Chinese EVs. It would be government mandated seppuku of basically all US / UK / European auto makers other than Tesla. I have long been of the opinion that the (first voluntary, now forced) push to EV is ultimately part of about making China into the next world superpower. To what end? Fucking beats me, I'm not a part of the Powers That Be(tm).
- ZeroGravitas 3y ago
  It wasn't the plan, it's just what happes when you get paid by fossil fuel interests to stick your head in the sand for a couple of decades. I'm sure lots of people got big quarterly bonuses along the way but eventually, reality catches up. So here we are, with China dominating: batteries, EVs, Wind power, Solar PV, HVDC transmission, UHVDC transmission, nuclear, hydro, high-speed rail, electrolyzers and probably others I've missed. Amazing what you can achieve when you actually try over multiple decades rather than hoping you'll be retired and/or dead by the time things come to a head.
throwawaysleep 3y ago
A consequence of decades of protecting jobs for the uneducated instead of allowing the market to penalize not continuing to learn.
soco 3y ago
Ironically it seems that exactly the only helpful and futureproof solution is the one never taken into account by said politicians. Reverting outsourcing??? hiss
enragedcacti 3y ago
The "2030" deadline still allows for plug-in hybrids until 2035 which would ease things a lot, but even so the big EV players outside of china project very substantial production by 2030. Volkswagen Group is targeting 80% EV sales across Europe and 100% by 2033. the EU has a 2035 ban so redirecting some EVs toward the UK during that time wouldn't be a that big of a lift. Ford Europe has similarly aggressive targets. You could probably quibble about how close they will be but I don't think automakers are anywhere near as worried about a 2030 Chinese takeover as you are. I think battery raw materials and processing is a different story but even there auto mfgs have been investing heavily in battery production.

by themgt 3y ago

Dalewyn 3y ago

>The rubber is about to really about to hit the road between climate policy and geopolitics. China is increasing dominating ~all the industries required for the green transition. At this point there'd be no remotely plausible way to enforce a 2030 EV car requirement than to wind up with 70% of your auto market being Chinese EVs. It would be government mandated seppuku of basically all US / UK / European auto makers other than Tesla. I have long been of the opinion that the (first voluntary, now forced) push to EV is ultimately part of about making China into the next world superpower. To what end? Fucking beats me, I'm not a part of the Powers That Be(tm).

ZeroGravitas 3y ago
It wasn't the plan, it's just what happes when you get paid by fossil fuel interests to stick your head in the sand for a couple of decades. I'm sure lots of people got big quarterly bonuses along the way but eventually, reality catches up. So here we are, with China dominating: batteries, EVs, Wind power, Solar PV, HVDC transmission, UHVDC transmission, nuclear, hydro, high-speed rail, electrolyzers and probably others I've missed. Amazing what you can achieve when you actually try over multiple decades rather than hoping you'll be retired and/or dead by the time things come to a head.

throwawaysleep 3y ago

A consequence of decades of protecting jobs for the uneducated instead of allowing the market to penalize not continuing to learn.

soco 3y ago

Ironically it seems that exactly the only helpful and futureproof solution is the one never taken into account by said politicians. Reverting outsourcing??? hiss

enragedcacti 3y ago

The "2030" deadline still allows for plug-in hybrids until 2035 which would ease things a lot, but even so the big EV players outside of china project very substantial production by 2030. Volkswagen Group is targeting 80% EV sales across Europe and 100% by 2033. the EU has a 2035 ban so redirecting some EVs toward the UK during that time wouldn't be a that big of a lift. Ford Europe has similarly aggressive targets. You could probably quibble about how close they will be but I don't think automakers are anywhere near as worried about a 2030 Chinese takeover as you are. I think battery raw materials and processing is a different story but even there auto mfgs have been investing heavily in battery production.