Agreed, the positive feedback loop for the AI explosion might not happen. However we had a path of positive feedback loops up to today. Moore's Law is part of

Agreed, the positive feedback loop for the AI explosion might not happen. However we had a path of positive feedback loops up to today. Moore's Law is part of this path of positive feedback loops. We have a look-behind bias. We tend to say that such a thing was destined to happen exactly as it happened. What exactly happens does not really matter. It is enough that something is found which is better than the rest. We see this in evolution. If a species has a mutation giving it a better chance then this species will thrive and probably displace other species. I think that there's a chance that the same will happen with AI. The driving force for evolution is the need to survive and the driving force for human products is the market demand. A company might stumble upon something better they can sell for cheap. Of course there are cartels, rent seeking and market barriers to entry, and if these forces are strong enough world-wide then AI explosion will be delayed for a long time or if humanity goes extinct not establish at all. But exilees could produce something in the backwaters which can overcome the broken main markets because of sheer ingenuity and because there's demand they will be successful. Think Tesla twenty years ago. tldr: Something is bound to happen driven by external forces like demand and competition.