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This has been in the cards for some time. It's also worth seeing what the price hikes are: "Those increases, the report says, were driven by costs of fertilize

by zosima 3y ago

This has been in the cards for some time. It's also worth seeing what the price hikes are: "Those increases, the report says, were driven by costs of fertilizer (up 60 per cent worldwide), construction (+48 per cent), fuel and gas (+41 per cent), shipping rates (+40 per cent), and electricity (+40 percent)." A few of these may find their cause in the supply chain problems during Covid, but most of them are driven by political factors: 1. The transition to renewable energy and increased regulation and taxation on fertilizer usage. 2. The war in Ukraine Right now I see it as more and more likely that the starvation and calamities that global warming was claimed to soon cause, will instead be caused by the entirely misdirected attempts to reduce CO2-emissions.

politelemon 3y ago
> The war in Ukraine I often see this used as a reason for affected things but I've not seen it explained, so it must be self evident to many. What about it is causing the price hikes? Do our goods flow through it, is it affecting shipping routes? Is it a major provider of most good or just some kinds?
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > Is it a major provider of most good or just some kinds? Ukraine had a 10% export share in wheat between 2017 and 2021 [1]. They're also a particularly low-cost provider, which is why they supply 40% of the World Food Programme's wheat [2]. [1] https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/02/revisiting-ukraine-russia-and-agricultural-commodity-markets.html https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/02/revisiting-ukraine... [2] https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/forty-percent-world-food-programs-wheat-supplies-come-ukraine https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/forty-percent-world-f...
- ralferoo 3y ago
  Ukraine was known as "the breadbasket of Europe" and the majority of the crops grown there were exported. In particular, grains such as wheat, corn and barley provide approximately 10% of the world's supply. From what I understood of the news, the exports weren't massively affected in the first year or so of the war due to a treaty with Russia that protected ships transporting grain from attack. In the last couple of months, Russia announced they weren't renewing that (yearly) treaty and would treat foreign ships transporting as if they were warships, and so viable military targets. As Russia has long had a massive sea base at Sevastopol in the south-west of Ukraine (when it gave Crimea to Ukraine in 1954, this base was kept as Russian territory due its significant influence over the Black Sea), this base is now a choke point for all sea vessels in and out of Ukraine, which is probably why Ukraine is now stepping up attacks here - because with the ending of the treaty, they need that export route to stay open. That last paragraph was a long winded way of saying that actually, until recently, the war in Ukraine shouldn't have affected the price of grain all that much, because it was largely continuing as before, so any prior price increases being blamed on the war were possibly just opportunistic. With the ending of the treaty, it's not unlikely that there will be significantly less grain exported, or more exported over land, and so the price could increase. Obviously in the situation where demand exceeds supply, price increases aren't proportional to the reduction in supply, but based on the willingness of buyers to pay more than someone else to secure their supply, so the increases will probably be more dramatic.
- willyt 3y ago
  It cut off the supply of cheap gas to Europe from Russia, making the demand for gas from elsewhere spike which caused global price rises. As well as gas being used for domestic heating and cooking it's also used for industrial processes that require cheap heat. Burning gas to power steam turbines was one of the cheaper ways of making electricity.
- zosima 3y ago
  The war in Ukraine has majorly affected the prices of natural gas. Due to the european energy policy attempting to rely as much as possible on renewable energy, gas is absolutely essential for electricity production. It's the only energy source which is reliable and can be turned on and off quickly in situations where the renewable energy sources are not producing energy, due to lack of sun, water or wind. Furthermore natural gas is an essential ingredient in the production of artificial fertilizer. It's estimated that without artificial fertilizer, global agricultural production will only be able to feed approximately 4 billion people.
eecc 3y ago
Can’t we not always turn anything into an attack against climate action?
- brutusborn 3y ago
  You may see it as an attack, but I see such comments as essential to address. If you want more climate action, you need to reduce political opposition to it. Rising food prices due to rising energy costs _will_ cause lots of people to stop caring about the climate. Activists trying to pretend issues such as this don’t exist is one of the reasons why people distrust climate activists.
martin_a 3y ago
You missed: 3. Greedflation

by zosima 3y ago

politelemon 3y ago

> The war in Ukraine I often see this used as a reason for affected things but I've not seen it explained, so it must be self evident to many. What about it is causing the price hikes? Do our goods flow through it, is it affecting shipping routes? Is it a major provider of most good or just some kinds?

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> Is it a major provider of most good or just some kinds? Ukraine had a 10% export share in wheat between 2017 and 2021 [1]. They're also a particularly low-cost provider, which is why they supply 40% of the World Food Programme's wheat [2]. [1] https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/02/revisiting-ukraine-russia-and-agricultural-commodity-markets.html https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/02/revisiting-ukraine... [2] https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/forty-percent-world-food-programs-wheat-supplies-come-ukraine https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/forty-percent-world-f...
ralferoo 3y ago
Ukraine was known as "the breadbasket of Europe" and the majority of the crops grown there were exported. In particular, grains such as wheat, corn and barley provide approximately 10% of the world's supply. From what I understood of the news, the exports weren't massively affected in the first year or so of the war due to a treaty with Russia that protected ships transporting grain from attack. In the last couple of months, Russia announced they weren't renewing that (yearly) treaty and would treat foreign ships transporting as if they were warships, and so viable military targets. As Russia has long had a massive sea base at Sevastopol in the south-west of Ukraine (when it gave Crimea to Ukraine in 1954, this base was kept as Russian territory due its significant influence over the Black Sea), this base is now a choke point for all sea vessels in and out of Ukraine, which is probably why Ukraine is now stepping up attacks here - because with the ending of the treaty, they need that export route to stay open. That last paragraph was a long winded way of saying that actually, until recently, the war in Ukraine shouldn't have affected the price of grain all that much, because it was largely continuing as before, so any prior price increases being blamed on the war were possibly just opportunistic. With the ending of the treaty, it's not unlikely that there will be significantly less grain exported, or more exported over land, and so the price could increase. Obviously in the situation where demand exceeds supply, price increases aren't proportional to the reduction in supply, but based on the willingness of buyers to pay more than someone else to secure their supply, so the increases will probably be more dramatic.
willyt 3y ago
It cut off the supply of cheap gas to Europe from Russia, making the demand for gas from elsewhere spike which caused global price rises. As well as gas being used for domestic heating and cooking it's also used for industrial processes that require cheap heat. Burning gas to power steam turbines was one of the cheaper ways of making electricity.
zosima 3y ago
The war in Ukraine has majorly affected the prices of natural gas. Due to the european energy policy attempting to rely as much as possible on renewable energy, gas is absolutely essential for electricity production. It's the only energy source which is reliable and can be turned on and off quickly in situations where the renewable energy sources are not producing energy, due to lack of sun, water or wind. Furthermore natural gas is an essential ingredient in the production of artificial fertilizer. It's estimated that without artificial fertilizer, global agricultural production will only be able to feed approximately 4 billion people.

eecc 3y ago

Can’t we not always turn anything into an attack against climate action?

brutusborn 3y ago
You may see it as an attack, but I see such comments as essential to address. If you want more climate action, you need to reduce political opposition to it. Rising food prices due to rising energy costs _will_ cause lots of people to stop caring about the climate. Activists trying to pretend issues such as this don’t exist is one of the reasons why people distrust climate activists.

martin_a 3y ago

You missed: 3. Greedflation