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Chinese blockade of Taiwan would likely fail, Pentagon official says
- verdverm 3y agoI'd like to hear more about why this official thinks it would fail. They say the PLA would have to start firing on civilian ships, but that's not really what we are seeing in Ukraine. The insurance is the keystone. Some ships are still porting in UA, but not at the level they need. In what ways, and why, would Taiwan be different? We know it will be the opposite of the Cuban missile crisis, where this time it will be the opposite sides enforcing & running the blockade I would guess that if Xi is willing to go to the blockade level, he's not really concerned about the fallout from it at that point.
- simonblack 3y agoThere's probably about the same likelihood of China blockading Taiwan as there is of the US blockading Manhattan. Negligible. "Why would the US blockade Manhattan? It's legally part of the US." is the same thing as "Why would China blockade Taiwan? It's legally part of China." Washington has ways of bringing New York into line without using any military means, and Beijing has ways of bringing Taipei into line without using any military means. China has been around for thousands of years, it's not as if it can't wait a decade or two (or even a century or two).