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I am open to studies as rigorous as you demand indicating Autopilot/FSD is more dangerous than human drivers. But until those are produced, total miles and tot

I am open to studies as rigorous as you demand indicating Autopilot/FSD is more dangerous than human drivers. But until those are produced, total miles and total accidents seem to be pretty objective, and easily tracked, numbers. There's really no magic there. And on that count, Tesla makes very safe machines.

Veserv 3y ago
You are open to rigorous studies proving it is dangerous? This is a safety critical system; the default assumption is that it is unsafe and rigorous independent studies must be made to prove it is safe. You are guilty until proven innocent when making dangerous devices, that is how we threaten companies into not killing people for their own greed. The utter contempt for rigor and acceptable standards on safety reporting Tesla has demonstrated is appalling. Your average elementary school science fair project is more transparent and robust. I am not joking or exaggerating on that assessment. They deliberately choose to not even publish the number of accidents or the number of miles used in their division operation. It is hard to overstate how ridiculous this is. Even Philip Morris had to try harder when claiming cigarettes were safe. Tesla’s numbers are total and utter garbage. But, since you want rigor. Tesla has reported ~350M miles on FSD. They have over 700 crashes with no known survivors attributable to FSD officially reported and acknowledged by Tesla to NHTSA. This results in a worst case estimate of 1 fatality per ~500,000 miles, 10x more fatalities than their purported accident numbers and 120x worse than the average driver who has 1 fatality per ~60,000,000 miles. I have now provided a more rigorous proof of danger than the Tesla safety report. I have provided the numerator and denominator as drawn from official Tesla and government sources. My report is more transparent, robust, auditable, and conflict-of-interest free than Tesla’s safety report. If you or Tesla would like to dispute the number of fatal crashes on FSD, then for each such crash provide a report indicating if FSD was not on or all occupants survived. That is the bare minimum level of proof required, which is still less than what Waymo already reports voluntarily without being forced to. Until then, Tesla’s auditable safety record of 120x more dangerous than the average driver speaks for itself.
- hcurtiss 3y ago
  LOL - 700 crashes with no known survivors attributable to FSD? You're claiming 700 people have died while operating FSD? Friend, that's not a worst-case assessment. That's just a lie. But to be sure, there will be people who die. That is true of nearly every human activity. We have to accommodate a non-zero death rate. Were to not, then we'd immediately outlaw driving altogether, which would impoverish millions. Your angry "prove it's safe" argument is an ideological position not grounded in any useful reality. Their numbers evidence the technology is very safe. It is not perfectly safe because nothing is.
  - Veserv 3y ago
    So not a single one of the 700 crashes with no known survivors that Tesla reported to NHTSA, ~95% of all crashes they have reported, had any fatalities? That sounds really easy to prove. Tesla can just get some lawyers to query the police reports. The police reports will record any injuries and fatalities and then Tesla can update their NHTSA incident reports to fill in the police report boxes that they chose not to fill in during their initial and follow-up reports. Or are you arguing that Tesla, who knows exactly where every crash occurred and who is the nearly trillion dollar company, has no obligation to do any investigation? Instead it is the public's job to reverse engineer Tesla's crash information from the redacted reports and then donate time and money to do it for Tesla. Furthermore, you have completely deflected on providing any support for the numbers in the Tesla safety report you keep quoting. Tesla's safety report claims 4.8 million miles per accident. You and Tesla have exactly zero evidence supporting that number except for Tesla's word that Tesla's cars are super safe which is why you should give Tesla money. Tesla will not even answer a simple question like how many accidents occurred in each quarter, let alone proper reporting like Waymo who indicates exactly which NHTSA reported crashes they corresponded to and the nature of the crash. You complain about publicly auditable numbers reported by Tesla to NHTSA while pushing completely unsupported numbers self-reported by the entity with the largest possible conflict of interest as if they are facts. Also your last point railing about proving things safe is a strawman. Proving something safe does not mean "proving it perfectly safe", it means demonstrating the desired level of safety through rigorous investigations producing well-documented, auditable evidence confirmed through unbiased, third party access to the data and data generation methodology. Which is already the long-standing standard procedure in safety-critical systems in industries such as aviation, medical, automotive, transportation, and industrial control. It does not mean publishing a unaudited number while doing no investigations and preventing third party or regulatory access to the raw data like what Tesla does. That is called safety reporting malpractice.

Veserv 3y ago

You are open to rigorous studies proving it is dangerous? This is a safety critical system; the default assumption is that it is unsafe and rigorous independent studies must be made to prove it is safe. You are guilty until proven innocent when making dangerous devices, that is how we threaten companies into not killing people for their own greed. The utter contempt for rigor and acceptable standards on safety reporting Tesla has demonstrated is appalling. Your average elementary school science fair project is more transparent and robust. I am not joking or exaggerating on that assessment. They deliberately choose to not even publish the number of accidents or the number of miles used in their division operation. It is hard to overstate how ridiculous this is. Even Philip Morris had to try harder when claiming cigarettes were safe. Tesla’s numbers are total and utter garbage. But, since you want rigor. Tesla has reported ~350M miles on FSD. They have over 700 crashes with no known survivors attributable to FSD officially reported and acknowledged by Tesla to NHTSA. This results in a worst case estimate of 1 fatality per ~500,000 miles, 10x more fatalities than their purported accident numbers and 120x worse than the average driver who has 1 fatality per ~60,000,000 miles. I have now provided a more rigorous proof of danger than the Tesla safety report. I have provided the numerator and denominator as drawn from official Tesla and government sources. My report is more transparent, robust, auditable, and conflict-of-interest free than Tesla’s safety report. If you or Tesla would like to dispute the number of fatal crashes on FSD, then for each such crash provide a report indicating if FSD was not on or all occupants survived. That is the bare minimum level of proof required, which is still less than what Waymo already reports voluntarily without being forced to. Until then, Tesla’s auditable safety record of 120x more dangerous than the average driver speaks for itself.

hcurtiss 3y ago
LOL - 700 crashes with no known survivors attributable to FSD? You're claiming 700 people have died while operating FSD? Friend, that's not a worst-case assessment. That's just a lie. But to be sure, there will be people who die. That is true of nearly every human activity. We have to accommodate a non-zero death rate. Were to not, then we'd immediately outlaw driving altogether, which would impoverish millions. Your angry "prove it's safe" argument is an ideological position not grounded in any useful reality. Their numbers evidence the technology is very safe. It is not perfectly safe because nothing is.
- Veserv 3y ago
  So not a single one of the 700 crashes with no known survivors that Tesla reported to NHTSA, ~95% of all crashes they have reported, had any fatalities? That sounds really easy to prove. Tesla can just get some lawyers to query the police reports. The police reports will record any injuries and fatalities and then Tesla can update their NHTSA incident reports to fill in the police report boxes that they chose not to fill in during their initial and follow-up reports. Or are you arguing that Tesla, who knows exactly where every crash occurred and who is the nearly trillion dollar company, has no obligation to do any investigation? Instead it is the public's job to reverse engineer Tesla's crash information from the redacted reports and then donate time and money to do it for Tesla. Furthermore, you have completely deflected on providing any support for the numbers in the Tesla safety report you keep quoting. Tesla's safety report claims 4.8 million miles per accident. You and Tesla have exactly zero evidence supporting that number except for Tesla's word that Tesla's cars are super safe which is why you should give Tesla money. Tesla will not even answer a simple question like how many accidents occurred in each quarter, let alone proper reporting like Waymo who indicates exactly which NHTSA reported crashes they corresponded to and the nature of the crash. You complain about publicly auditable numbers reported by Tesla to NHTSA while pushing completely unsupported numbers self-reported by the entity with the largest possible conflict of interest as if they are facts. Also your last point railing about proving things safe is a strawman. Proving something safe does not mean "proving it perfectly safe", it means demonstrating the desired level of safety through rigorous investigations producing well-documented, auditable evidence confirmed through unbiased, third party access to the data and data generation methodology. Which is already the long-standing standard procedure in safety-critical systems in industries such as aviation, medical, automotive, transportation, and industrial control. It does not mean publishing a unaudited number while doing no investigations and preventing third party or regulatory access to the raw data like what Tesla does. That is called safety reporting malpractice.