3 ms·
It's also a self-balancing system. As HIV becomes rarer, fewer people will be concerned about it, and therefore fewer will bother taking Prep daily. In turn
by londons_explore 3y ago
It's also a self-balancing system. As HIV becomes rarer, fewer people will be concerned about it, and therefore fewer will bother taking Prep daily. In turn, HIV becomes more infectious, and more people contract it.
It will probably stabilize with about 0.4% of humans being infected.
Lots of things affect about 0.4% of people, because that's rare enough that most people don't have any friend or colleague affected, and therefore don't take precautions.
- binarymax 3y agoWhere did you get that 0.4% number? Is this a well-established statistic?
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- buescher 3y agoI'm curious too. My guess - 99.7% covers three standard deviations assuming a normal distribution - so just within three sigma?
- giantg2 3y agoI'm curious too. I have actually heard that .04% number before when dealing with disease prevalence, but I don't remember where from.
- londons_explore 3y agoNo - just a guess based on the fact that me and the people around me tend to know ~250 people. Ie. there are probably 250 people who would find out if I got diabetes and died. Those people would then probably take a little more care of their health, and take steps to avoid the same fate.
- pixl97 3y ago> Ie. there are probably 250 people who would find out if I got diabetes and died. Those people would then probably take a little more care of their health Around 14% of Americans have diabetes, so I don't think that really pans out.
- londons_explore 3y agoBut how many Americans are aware of diabetes and take at least some effort to avoid it? Eg. Drinking diet coke instead of regular Coke? Most...
- snowpid 3y agoAmericans have a high prevalence of diabetes and it is definitely an outliner.
- Simulacra 3y agoIMO Prep has raised the risk of HIV by giving people a false sense of security.
- foldr 3y agoAnnual HIV diagnoses have declined (somewhat) in the US in recent years. So either it hasn't, or there are other bigger factors at play.
- burkaman 3y agoWhat is false about it? It is apparently close to 100% effective if you take it every day, that seems like a very real sense of security.