6 ms·

True, but what about 99.999%? https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-autopilot-is-x9-safer-tesla-vehicles-are-x2-safer-than-cars-of-other-brands

True, but what about 99.999%? https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-autopilot-is-x9-safer-tesla-vehicles-are-x2-safer-than-cars-of-other-brands https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-autopil...

mcpackieh 3y ago
If it works for 99,999 seconds for every second it fails, then I should expect it to fail before 30 hours of use. That's abysmal.
- mrtesthah 3y ago
  compare: “If it works for 99,999 microseconds for every microsecond it fails, then I should expect it to fail before 0.1 seconds of use.” with: “If it works for 99,999 hours for every hour it fails, then I should expect it to fail before 11 years of use.” This comparison can be twisted to make any conclusion you want.
  - mcpackieh 3y ago
    A car accident lasts for something on the order of 1 second, maybe a bit more or a bit less but no car accident lasts for a solid hour. I'm not concerned about one complete hour of failure, I'm concerned about one second of failure.
- hcurtiss 3y ago
  True. But at a hypothetical 40 mph average, one accident per 6.57 million miles is one accident every 164,250 hours. There are 8,760 hours in a year. These are exceptionally safe machines.
enragedcacti 3y ago
> https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19439962.2023.2178566?journalCode=utss20 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19439962.2023.21... > Although [Tesla] Level 2 vehicles were claimed to have a 43% lower crash rate than Level 1 vehicles, their improvement was only 10% after controlling for different rates of freeway driving. but even ignoring the statistical issues, Tesla Safety Reports are a measure of the safety of Autopilot AND a human driver. Community sourced critical disengagement data (because Tesla refuses to release industry standard metrics for AV performance) shows that FSD Beta alone is far far worse than the average driver: https://sites.google.com/view/fsdbetacommunitytracker/home?pli=1 https://sites.google.com/view/fsdbetacommunitytracker/home?p...
Veserv 3y ago
A self-reported, unaudited number published by the manufacturer claiming the product they are selling is safe is not data. Tesla’s “vehicle safety report” consists of publishing three ratios of miles/accident every three months. That is it. They do not even publish the number of miles or the number of accidents used in their calculation. You would fail your elementary school science fair project if you made a report like that. This is what a real safety report looks like: https://storage.googleapis.com/waymo-uploads/files/documents/safety/Safety%20Performance%20of%20Waymo%20RO%20at%201M%20miles.pdf https://storage.googleapis.com/waymo-uploads/files/documents... The differences are stark. The level of Tesla’s report is so far below the minimum standards of acceptable conduct that either everybody at Tesla safety is a utter moron or they have deliberately published a report that even a science-minded high schooler would be ashamed to submit in an attempt to deceive customers. Oh, and there is a trillion dollar conflict of interest, the report is totally self-serving, they have no independent confirmation, they reject working with independent auditors, they hide information from third parties, and they demand the government redact information from public reports. tl;dr That report is bogus self-serving lies.
- hcurtiss 3y ago
  I am open to studies as rigorous as you demand indicating Autopilot/FSD is more dangerous than human drivers. But until those are produced, total miles and total accidents seem to be pretty objective, and easily tracked, numbers. There's really no magic there. And on that count, Tesla makes very safe machines.
  - Veserv 3y ago
    You are open to rigorous studies proving it is dangerous? This is a safety critical system; the default assumption is that it is unsafe and rigorous independent studies must be made to prove it is safe. You are guilty until proven innocent when making dangerous devices, that is how we threaten companies into not killing people for their own greed. The utter contempt for rigor and acceptable standards on safety reporting Tesla has demonstrated is appalling. Your average elementary school science fair project is more transparent and robust. I am not joking or exaggerating on that assessment. They deliberately choose to not even publish the number of accidents or the number of miles used in their division operation. It is hard to overstate how ridiculous this is. Even Philip Morris had to try harder when claiming cigarettes were safe. Tesla’s numbers are total and utter garbage. But, since you want rigor. Tesla has reported ~350M miles on FSD. They have over 700 crashes with no known survivors attributable to FSD officially reported and acknowledged by Tesla to NHTSA. This results in a worst case estimate of 1 fatality per ~500,000 miles, 10x more fatalities than their purported accident numbers and 120x worse than the average driver who has 1 fatality per ~60,000,000 miles. I have now provided a more rigorous proof of danger than the Tesla safety report. I have provided the numerator and denominator as drawn from official Tesla and government sources. My report is more transparent, robust, auditable, and conflict-of-interest free than Tesla’s safety report. If you or Tesla would like to dispute the number of fatal crashes on FSD, then for each such crash provide a report indicating if FSD was not on or all occupants survived. That is the bare minimum level of proof required, which is still less than what Waymo already reports voluntarily without being forced to. Until then, Tesla’s auditable safety record of 120x more dangerous than the average driver speaks for itself.

mcpackieh 3y ago

If it works for 99,999 seconds for every second it fails, then I should expect it to fail before 30 hours of use. That's abysmal.

mrtesthah 3y ago
compare: “If it works for 99,999 microseconds for every microsecond it fails, then I should expect it to fail before 0.1 seconds of use.” with: “If it works for 99,999 hours for every hour it fails, then I should expect it to fail before 11 years of use.” This comparison can be twisted to make any conclusion you want.
- mcpackieh 3y ago
  A car accident lasts for something on the order of 1 second, maybe a bit more or a bit less but no car accident lasts for a solid hour. I'm not concerned about one complete hour of failure, I'm concerned about one second of failure.
hcurtiss 3y ago
True. But at a hypothetical 40 mph average, one accident per 6.57 million miles is one accident every 164,250 hours. There are 8,760 hours in a year. These are exceptionally safe machines.

enragedcacti 3y ago

> https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19439962.2023.2178566?journalCode=utss20 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19439962.2023.21... > Although [Tesla] Level 2 vehicles were claimed to have a 43% lower crash rate than Level 1 vehicles, their improvement was only 10% after controlling for different rates of freeway driving. but even ignoring the statistical issues, Tesla Safety Reports are a measure of the safety of Autopilot AND a human driver. Community sourced critical disengagement data (because Tesla refuses to release industry standard metrics for AV performance) shows that FSD Beta alone is far far worse than the average driver: https://sites.google.com/view/fsdbetacommunitytracker/home?pli=1 https://sites.google.com/view/fsdbetacommunitytracker/home?p...

Veserv 3y ago

A self-reported, unaudited number published by the manufacturer claiming the product they are selling is safe is not data. Tesla’s “vehicle safety report” consists of publishing three ratios of miles/accident every three months. That is it. They do not even publish the number of miles or the number of accidents used in their calculation. You would fail your elementary school science fair project if you made a report like that. This is what a real safety report looks like: https://storage.googleapis.com/waymo-uploads/files/documents/safety/Safety%20Performance%20of%20Waymo%20RO%20at%201M%20miles.pdf https://storage.googleapis.com/waymo-uploads/files/documents... The differences are stark. The level of Tesla’s report is so far below the minimum standards of acceptable conduct that either everybody at Tesla safety is a utter moron or they have deliberately published a report that even a science-minded high schooler would be ashamed to submit in an attempt to deceive customers. Oh, and there is a trillion dollar conflict of interest, the report is totally self-serving, they have no independent confirmation, they reject working with independent auditors, they hide information from third parties, and they demand the government redact information from public reports. tl;dr That report is bogus self-serving lies.

hcurtiss 3y ago
I am open to studies as rigorous as you demand indicating Autopilot/FSD is more dangerous than human drivers. But until those are produced, total miles and total accidents seem to be pretty objective, and easily tracked, numbers. There's really no magic there. And on that count, Tesla makes very safe machines.
- Veserv 3y ago
  You are open to rigorous studies proving it is dangerous? This is a safety critical system; the default assumption is that it is unsafe and rigorous independent studies must be made to prove it is safe. You are guilty until proven innocent when making dangerous devices, that is how we threaten companies into not killing people for their own greed. The utter contempt for rigor and acceptable standards on safety reporting Tesla has demonstrated is appalling. Your average elementary school science fair project is more transparent and robust. I am not joking or exaggerating on that assessment. They deliberately choose to not even publish the number of accidents or the number of miles used in their division operation. It is hard to overstate how ridiculous this is. Even Philip Morris had to try harder when claiming cigarettes were safe. Tesla’s numbers are total and utter garbage. But, since you want rigor. Tesla has reported ~350M miles on FSD. They have over 700 crashes with no known survivors attributable to FSD officially reported and acknowledged by Tesla to NHTSA. This results in a worst case estimate of 1 fatality per ~500,000 miles, 10x more fatalities than their purported accident numbers and 120x worse than the average driver who has 1 fatality per ~60,000,000 miles. I have now provided a more rigorous proof of danger than the Tesla safety report. I have provided the numerator and denominator as drawn from official Tesla and government sources. My report is more transparent, robust, auditable, and conflict-of-interest free than Tesla’s safety report. If you or Tesla would like to dispute the number of fatal crashes on FSD, then for each such crash provide a report indicating if FSD was not on or all occupants survived. That is the bare minimum level of proof required, which is still less than what Waymo already reports voluntarily without being forced to. Until then, Tesla’s auditable safety record of 120x more dangerous than the average driver speaks for itself.