3 ms·

Google's AI experience is going to be about the same as their social experiments which is they'll fail. I didn't think this before but now realising ChatGPT and

by asim 3y ago

Google's AI experience is going to be about the same as their social experiments which is they'll fail. I didn't think this before but now realising ChatGPT and other personal assistants (because that's what they are) will really succeed not just because of performance but network effects and social mindshare. You'll use the most popular AI assistant because that's what everyone else is using. Maybe some of these things will differ in a corporate setting but Google has really struggled to launch new products that get used as a daily habit without deprecating it within two years after. Remember Allo. I think Google is a technical juggernaut but they struggle a lot with anything that requires a network effect.

andrewinardeer 3y ago
> will really succeed not just because of performance but network effects and social mindshare The network effect is only relevant if some sort of native interoperability is required. Which, being the nature of LLMs I don't think is a significant requirement as translation is the core of the function. Thanks to market forces and the nature of competition the "most popular" will shift over time as different use cases for LLMs are applied. All it takes is one big misstep by Apple, Microsoft, Google or even OpenAI and a large market share can move overnight. I'm excited about onboard mobile LLMs in a few years and their capabilities.
seanhunter 3y ago
I do think google will fail and will suck at anything requiring a network effect, but I don't think OpenAI's success is to do with network effects. OpenAI for instance has really not cracked social features in ChatGPT - they have a "share link" thing now which they didn't have before but that's really it. Bard doesn't even have any social sharing. The reason OpenAI are in the lead at the moment is their model is way better than anyone else's to the point where it's actually useful for a lot of things. Not just giving a recipe for marinara sauce in the style of Biggie Smalls or other party tricks, proof reading, summarizing, turning text into bullets, giving examples of things, coming up with practise exercises to illustrate a point, giving critiques of stuff etc etc. Lots of things that people actually do it does well enough to be helpful, whereas in my experience so far, other models are just not quite good enough to be helpful at a number of those tasks. So there's really no reason to use them over gpt4.

by asim 3y ago

andrewinardeer 3y ago

> will really succeed not just because of performance but network effects and social mindshare The network effect is only relevant if some sort of native interoperability is required. Which, being the nature of LLMs I don't think is a significant requirement as translation is the core of the function. Thanks to market forces and the nature of competition the "most popular" will shift over time as different use cases for LLMs are applied. All it takes is one big misstep by Apple, Microsoft, Google or even OpenAI and a large market share can move overnight. I'm excited about onboard mobile LLMs in a few years and their capabilities.

seanhunter 3y ago

I do think google will fail and will suck at anything requiring a network effect, but I don't think OpenAI's success is to do with network effects. OpenAI for instance has really not cracked social features in ChatGPT - they have a "share link" thing now which they didn't have before but that's really it. Bard doesn't even have any social sharing. The reason OpenAI are in the lead at the moment is their model is way better than anyone else's to the point where it's actually useful for a lot of things. Not just giving a recipe for marinara sauce in the style of Biggie Smalls or other party tricks, proof reading, summarizing, turning text into bullets, giving examples of things, coming up with practise exercises to illustrate a point, giving critiques of stuff etc etc. Lots of things that people actually do it does well enough to be helpful, whereas in my experience so far, other models are just not quite good enough to be helpful at a number of those tasks. So there's really no reason to use them over gpt4.