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But... that comes with a huge economic penalty in general system corruption, reduced cooperation, productivity, efficiency. Low morale/patriotism. And eventuall
by AtlasBarfed 3y ago
But... that comes with a huge economic penalty in general system corruption, reduced cooperation, productivity, efficiency. Low morale/patriotism. And eventually the central powers fragment.
Really the USSR lasted as long as it did because the Great War had a lasting mass perception of survivalism, and the power vacuum bringing the Warsaw Pact under Russia's economic dominance. Eventually it fell apart.
Somehow Putin reversed that (likely because of oil revenues), but the oil age is coming to an end, and Putin is allegedly failing in health. When he dies or is deposed, Russia will fragment I think.
But this time, there is a military power that is greater than Russia, at least in conventional terms: Ukraine. It will have a trained, battle-hardened, motivated, fully NATO-supplied army, with deep NCO-deep ties to NATO militaries, equipment, officers, etc. It will have trust of its allies and a critical mission to NATO of being the new line of defense with Russia.
What will likely happen once Putin falls is that Belarus will effectively become allied with Poland, Ukraine, and the NATO-member Balkans. Ukraine will become a pivotal multi-decade military and diplomatic leverage over parts of crumbling Russia: George, Armenia, and/or Azerbaijan will align with them.
So what happens then? Kalingrad declares independence? What about the thin sliver of Russia between the Black and Caspian seas, isn't that where the oil fields are, or the Kalmyks decide the time is right? Bashkirs? Chechens of course?
What if post-putin results in separate power centers in Volgograd/St Petersburg, and Moscow all essentially dividing the spoils?