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It struck me recently that this may be because people are flocking to cities - and the same cities that existed 100 years ago. I don't have any statistics, but
by rich_sasha 3y ago
It struck me recently that this may be because people are flocking to cities - and the same cities that existed 100 years ago.
I don't have any statistics, but city dwelling must have exploded over the past 50 years or so. Economies used to be so much more based around agriculture and industry, even around WWII. Agriculture was less mechanized, needing more people, factories are often based away from big cities.
With these branches of economy in decline, more and more people are competing for the limited space in cities. And this surplus in demand doesn't easily lead to an increase of supply, as economics would dictate, because that would necessitate new cities.
We used to found new cities. Car makers in the US and Europe (Volkswagen for example), Milton Keynes in the UK is founded from scratch in 1950s. But no longer, and so "knowledge economy" workers, numbers ever increasing, will compete for proximity to the same few city centres as before.
Perhaps this is one advantage SV had in the early days (I've never been so might be very wrong here), but in the early days of SV, there was a lot of cities/towns to support a significant body of "knowledge economy workers". SV seems quite diversified, it's not like it is all based in SF, but there's lots of smaller towns that are sufficiently city-like. But of course that has a limit too, so it would seem like SV is past that saturation point too and in the same point as other urban areas.
To change this situation, we either need more remote work, or new cities. It'll be very interesting to see how the new Californian city fares. I won't hold my breath for the Saudi one - but of course you never know.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- 1letterunixname 3y agoThere are several factors in play in the US that put pressure on existing long-term residents. - Rural/suburban -> city migration - Immigration of wealthy people from all over the world to the US. California is an obvious and frequent destination for Pacific Rim peoples. - REITs and other large investors snapping-up real estate only to idle it or rent it out at a premium. - Zoning restrictions - Massive open space preserves immediately adjacent to suburban and residential areas, blocking usable land for growth - Lack of efficient, convenient, high speed public transit: CalTrain and VTA Light Rail are largely inconvenient for all but a small fraction of people. Faster, more efficient public transit allows housing to be more spread out. California has been promising high speed rail about as long as the flying car and fusion power have been "just around the corner". There is another factor for older residents in California dissuading them from moving: losing Prop 13. Another worrisome trend in US is the numbers of giant SUVs replacing mid-sized passenger cars. Vehicles that are heavier, less safe to pedestrians, less safe to drive, and less safe for occupants in a collision because they don't have to meet passenger car standards.
- rich_sasha 3y agoYes, there are many factors. What I couldn't understand (and what I think my "brainwave" explains) is why excess demand barely moves the needle of supply. Usually if something is in short supply, it becomes more and more economical to produce it and sell it - increasing supply and decreasing prices. Some of the factors you list decrease supply, but to me, the elephant in the room is that we don't seem to be able to create new cities - thus we're all competing for a fixed, small supply of land near the centres of a handful of high-status cities. Different zoning, REITs and public transport are factors too, but these are merely resistors in the circuit, not switches IMHO.