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It’s perhaps wishful thinking to believe that oppressive states will automatically fall apart. Stasi-infested East Germany could well have kept existing had it

It’s perhaps wishful thinking to believe that oppressive states will automatically fall apart. Stasi-infested East Germany could well have kept existing had it not been located next to a Western democracy that everyone was looking towards. Look at Eritrea or North Korea, for example. China, too, doesn’t have a direct neighbor that exerts the same influence on it as West Germany on the GDR. Moreover, China already began to roll out years ago surveillance tech that the Stasi could have only dreamed of.

bell-cot 3y ago
In time, all states fall apart. Or get conquered. Or lose a civil war / revolution. Or whatever. Sure, China has a bunch of advantages (large scale, distinct ethnic/national identity, etc.) that the GDR didn't have. But Chinese history records ~4,000 years of dynasties, emperors, generals, etc. with similar authoritarian ambitions - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynasties_in_Chinese_history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynasties_in_Chinese_history Saying "This Time Will Be Different, Because $Yet_Another_New_Reason" also has an extremely long history.
- janalsncm 3y ago
  Some of those dynasties lasted hundreds of years. Most recently, the Qing dynasty lasted longer than the United States has (the US being one of the world’s older democracies). I don’t think it’s much solace to people living today that they only need to endure 450 more years of autocratic rule before their nation undergoes a revolution. And just because the ruling class is overthrown in a country doesn’t mean the material quality of life for everyday people changes. One autocrat replacing another isn’t much better.
mensetmanusman 3y ago
North Korea would collapse in a week if it wasn’t propped up by China. I don’t think these evil systems are very stable long term without outside support.
- skinnymuch 3y ago
  What would happen if no country like North Korea was sanctioned by the US and the west any more?

bell-cot 3y ago

In time, all states fall apart. Or get conquered. Or lose a civil war / revolution. Or whatever. Sure, China has a bunch of advantages (large scale, distinct ethnic/national identity, etc.) that the GDR didn't have. But Chinese history records ~4,000 years of dynasties, emperors, generals, etc. with similar authoritarian ambitions - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynasties_in_Chinese_history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynasties_in_Chinese_history Saying "This Time Will Be Different, Because $Yet_Another_New_Reason" also has an extremely long history.

janalsncm 3y ago
Some of those dynasties lasted hundreds of years. Most recently, the Qing dynasty lasted longer than the United States has (the US being one of the world’s older democracies). I don’t think it’s much solace to people living today that they only need to endure 450 more years of autocratic rule before their nation undergoes a revolution. And just because the ruling class is overthrown in a country doesn’t mean the material quality of life for everyday people changes. One autocrat replacing another isn’t much better.

mensetmanusman 3y ago

North Korea would collapse in a week if it wasn’t propped up by China. I don’t think these evil systems are very stable long term without outside support.

skinnymuch 3y ago
What would happen if no country like North Korea was sanctioned by the US and the west any more?