4 ms·

The big elephant in the room is that the amount of people in the market has greatly increased because the population in this country exploded. For instance, Ca

The big elephant in the room is that the amount of people in the market has greatly increased because the population in this country exploded. For instance, California population almost doubled since 1980 (25m to nearly 40m). And some cities have been built out in the 90s to the point where there is no more space (pretty much any city in Southern California comes to mind). So yeah, given the smaller amount of inventory and more buyers, the basic economics state that the prices will rise.

astrange 3y ago
> And some cities have been built out in the 90s to the point where there is no more space (pretty much any city in Southern California comes to mind). The more space can be found in: - any lot zoned R-1 that could be a duplex or better. - the air above any single story building. It's not difficult; just compare your city to somewhere like Tokyo or Barcelona, which are both much nicer.
- strangattractor 3y ago
  In California building up requires earthquake consideration making the building more expensive.
  - astrange 3y ago
    It's not much different up to 4-5 stories and it's not a problem in Japan. Also, you should assume that anything Californians say is a lie and they just don't want to do it. NIMBYs are very, very advanced at this.
    - strangattractor 3y ago
      Wow first time I have been called liar by anyone. My only point was that as you increase the size and height of homes/structures in an earthquake zone it becomes more expensive due to earthquakes mitigations. You may be able to build less expensive structures in other places. Simply changing the Zoning does not necessarily automagically make the homes less expensive. Comparing Apple to Oranges IMO: In 2020, forest land covered about 66.2 percent of the land in Japan. While cultivated land accounted for around 11.6 percent, only just over three percent of the land was used for housing. Due to its mountainous geography, only a small part of Japan's 37.8 million hectares of land is habitable.Jun 28, 2023 https://www.statista.com/statistics/1276355/japan-land-use-distribution-by-category/#:~:text=In%202020%2C%20forest%20land%20covered,hectares%20of%20land%20is%20habitable https://www.statista.com/statistics/1276355/japan-land-use-d....
      - astrange 3y ago
        My apologies, I'm actually calling your cities' planning department liars! But buildings in Japan are all of surprisingly cheap construction, low quality (they have like no insulation), in earthquake danger zones, and safe. They're definitely not all high rises, but some of them are. The specific building type popular in California now is called "5-over-1" and is earthquake safe. It's a 4-5 story wooden apartment sometimes with mixed use commercial at the ground floor. (The name "5-over-1", confusingly enough, refers to sections of the fire code and is not the number of floors.)
- starik36 3y ago
  > any lot zoned R-1 that could be a duplex or better. So you want to take a situation which is nice for people living in their quiet neighborhoods and make it suck for absolutely everyone? > like Tokyo Fine, let's take a satellite shot from a random SoCal city. As you can see, the city has pretty been built out. https://www.google.com/maps/@33.6683046,-117.9843852,6505m/data=!3m1!1e3!5m1!1e1?entry=ttu https://www.google.com/maps/@33.6683046,-117.9843852,6505m/d... Your solution is to start ripping out single family homes and building duplexes everywhere?
  - astrange 3y ago
    > So you want to take a situation which is nice for people living in their quiet neighborhoods and make it suck for absolutely everyone? If you don't do this, your children are going to move to another state when they turn 18 and never visit, because they won't have anywhere to live. Neighbors aren't pollution, but your problem is too severe to even be worrying about them. Worry about your own family. And Tokyo is quieter than your SoCal city because it doesn't have as many cars. > Your solution is to start ripping out single family homes and building duplexes everywhere? Absolutely. Luckily, it's too late for you, because we already did it in 2019 and it's already popular. https://cayimby.org/historic-adu-legislation/ https://cayimby.org/historic-adu-legislation/ The single family homeowners are the ones developing the ADUs in this case. And if their homes get replaced by a 4-plex instead, well, they got paid because they sold their land for it.
    - starik36 3y ago
      > your children are going to move to another state That will happen with your plan as well because they won't want to live in a dense dystopian population hellscape. Maybe the solution is not to be ripping out homes and replacing them with duplexes, but rather building new cities. Which is also already happening. Witness rise of cities (in SoCal) around Corona and San Bernardino, where very few lived only 20 years ago. That's because lots of people would rather live in a peace and quiet rather than hear their upstairs neighbor arguing with his wife.
      - 3y ago
- vonwoodson 3y ago
  Neither Tokyo or Barcelona are "nicer" than my hometown, though they certainly are different. I know that when I watch [videos like this video on HK "Coffin Homes"](https://youtu.be/kUK11Yx3ugQ?si=nvuuCXrB3BlxKSFA https://youtu.be/kUK11Yx3ugQ?si=nvuuCXrB3BlxKSFA) I'm thinking that I definitely am in love with my R-1 zoning laws. Also, 400sqft apartments are defiantly a thing in Tokyo and NYC... and, they're not even cheap! The reality is that More Appartments != Affordable housing and cramming more people into tight spaces is inhumane.
  - astrange 3y ago
    They're not cheap in NYC, but they are cheap in Tokyo's commuter zones, and generally speaking better in any non-Anglo country than in any Anglo country. Overcrowding actually happens when you don't build enough housing. It causes more people to live in the same housing you already have.
    - vonwoodson 3y ago
      I'm reminded of an Indian here in The States named Chief Black Kettle. During the failed negotiation of the land usage of the indigenous and the white settlers, which would eventually lead to his death and the massacre of his people, the white men simply could not understand why the Indians needed "so much land" and continued to reduce the amount of reservation would be granted.. until none was left at all. The moral of the story is that a person's way of life is not defined by outsiders. "Efficient", "nicer", "Productive"... all sound like excuses for pushing people out of their homes and destroying their culture. The Indians lived on this land for a thousand years without pollution or over crowding. Only once we started building and farming did these problems surface. So, "Overcrowding actually happens when you don't build enough housing." is obviously false. Overcrowding happens when you have too many people in the same space, as a tautology.
  - vonwoodson 3y ago
    I hate being right all the time: https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/rent-bed-pods-downtown-techies-18388110.php https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/rent-bed-pods-downtown-t...

astrange 3y ago

> And some cities have been built out in the 90s to the point where there is no more space (pretty much any city in Southern California comes to mind). The more space can be found in: - any lot zoned R-1 that could be a duplex or better. - the air above any single story building. It's not difficult; just compare your city to somewhere like Tokyo or Barcelona, which are both much nicer.

strangattractor 3y ago
In California building up requires earthquake consideration making the building more expensive.
- astrange 3y ago
  It's not much different up to 4-5 stories and it's not a problem in Japan. Also, you should assume that anything Californians say is a lie and they just don't want to do it. NIMBYs are very, very advanced at this.
  - strangattractor 3y ago
    Wow first time I have been called liar by anyone. My only point was that as you increase the size and height of homes/structures in an earthquake zone it becomes more expensive due to earthquakes mitigations. You may be able to build less expensive structures in other places. Simply changing the Zoning does not necessarily automagically make the homes less expensive. Comparing Apple to Oranges IMO: In 2020, forest land covered about 66.2 percent of the land in Japan. While cultivated land accounted for around 11.6 percent, only just over three percent of the land was used for housing. Due to its mountainous geography, only a small part of Japan's 37.8 million hectares of land is habitable.Jun 28, 2023 https://www.statista.com/statistics/1276355/japan-land-use-distribution-by-category/#:~:text=In%202020%2C%20forest%20land%20covered,hectares%20of%20land%20is%20habitable https://www.statista.com/statistics/1276355/japan-land-use-d....
    - astrange 3y ago
      My apologies, I'm actually calling your cities' planning department liars! But buildings in Japan are all of surprisingly cheap construction, low quality (they have like no insulation), in earthquake danger zones, and safe. They're definitely not all high rises, but some of them are. The specific building type popular in California now is called "5-over-1" and is earthquake safe. It's a 4-5 story wooden apartment sometimes with mixed use commercial at the ground floor. (The name "5-over-1", confusingly enough, refers to sections of the fire code and is not the number of floors.)
starik36 3y ago
> any lot zoned R-1 that could be a duplex or better. So you want to take a situation which is nice for people living in their quiet neighborhoods and make it suck for absolutely everyone? > like Tokyo Fine, let's take a satellite shot from a random SoCal city. As you can see, the city has pretty been built out. https://www.google.com/maps/@33.6683046,-117.9843852,6505m/data=!3m1!1e3!5m1!1e1?entry=ttu https://www.google.com/maps/@33.6683046,-117.9843852,6505m/d... Your solution is to start ripping out single family homes and building duplexes everywhere?
- astrange 3y ago
  > So you want to take a situation which is nice for people living in their quiet neighborhoods and make it suck for absolutely everyone? If you don't do this, your children are going to move to another state when they turn 18 and never visit, because they won't have anywhere to live. Neighbors aren't pollution, but your problem is too severe to even be worrying about them. Worry about your own family. And Tokyo is quieter than your SoCal city because it doesn't have as many cars. > Your solution is to start ripping out single family homes and building duplexes everywhere? Absolutely. Luckily, it's too late for you, because we already did it in 2019 and it's already popular. https://cayimby.org/historic-adu-legislation/ https://cayimby.org/historic-adu-legislation/ The single family homeowners are the ones developing the ADUs in this case. And if their homes get replaced by a 4-plex instead, well, they got paid because they sold their land for it.
  - starik36 3y ago
    > your children are going to move to another state That will happen with your plan as well because they won't want to live in a dense dystopian population hellscape. Maybe the solution is not to be ripping out homes and replacing them with duplexes, but rather building new cities. Which is also already happening. Witness rise of cities (in SoCal) around Corona and San Bernardino, where very few lived only 20 years ago. That's because lots of people would rather live in a peace and quiet rather than hear their upstairs neighbor arguing with his wife.
    - 3y ago
vonwoodson 3y ago
Neither Tokyo or Barcelona are "nicer" than my hometown, though they certainly are different. I know that when I watch [videos like this video on HK "Coffin Homes"](https://youtu.be/kUK11Yx3ugQ?si=nvuuCXrB3BlxKSFA https://youtu.be/kUK11Yx3ugQ?si=nvuuCXrB3BlxKSFA) I'm thinking that I definitely am in love with my R-1 zoning laws. Also, 400sqft apartments are defiantly a thing in Tokyo and NYC... and, they're not even cheap! The reality is that More Appartments != Affordable housing and cramming more people into tight spaces is inhumane.
- astrange 3y ago
  They're not cheap in NYC, but they are cheap in Tokyo's commuter zones, and generally speaking better in any non-Anglo country than in any Anglo country. Overcrowding actually happens when you don't build enough housing. It causes more people to live in the same housing you already have.
  - vonwoodson 3y ago
    I'm reminded of an Indian here in The States named Chief Black Kettle. During the failed negotiation of the land usage of the indigenous and the white settlers, which would eventually lead to his death and the massacre of his people, the white men simply could not understand why the Indians needed "so much land" and continued to reduce the amount of reservation would be granted.. until none was left at all. The moral of the story is that a person's way of life is not defined by outsiders. "Efficient", "nicer", "Productive"... all sound like excuses for pushing people out of their homes and destroying their culture. The Indians lived on this land for a thousand years without pollution or over crowding. Only once we started building and farming did these problems surface. So, "Overcrowding actually happens when you don't build enough housing." is obviously false. Overcrowding happens when you have too many people in the same space, as a tautology.
- vonwoodson 3y ago
  I hate being right all the time: https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/rent-bed-pods-downtown-techies-18388110.php https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/rent-bed-pods-downtown-t...