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From Wikipedia: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity In 1965 I. J. Good predict

From Wikipedia: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity In 1965 I. J. Good predicted an ultraintelligent machine by 2000, Vinge (1993) predicted greater-than-human intelligence between 2005 and 2030, Yudkowsky (1996) predicted a singularity by 2021, and Kurzweil (2005) predicted human-level artificial intelligence by 2030. Moravec (1988) predicted human-level artificial intelligence in supercomputers by 2010 by extrapolating past trend using a chart, while Moravec (1998/1999) predicted human-level artificial intelligence by 2040, and intelligence far beyond human by 2050. In a 2017 interview, Kurzweil predicted human-level intelligence by 2029 and billion fold intelligence and singularity by 2045 Who do you think lied among them?

elil17 3y ago
I do not hold people who make unjustifiably confident predictions in high regard. Yud and Kurzweil are the ones from your quote who I am more familiar with and they are constantly wrong and constantly overconfident. They've spent decades making wrong predictions, and they keep doing it without updating their methods. To me, that's not making mistakes, that's lying.
- signatoremo 3y ago
  Lying means they knew their prediction was wrong, but they did it anyway. Are you suggesting Yud and Kurzwell knew they were wrong? What about “updating model”? If only AI can be correctly predicted by models. Don’t you see the contradiction?
abenga 3y ago
Did any of them sell you kits implementing their predictions for thousands of dollars?
- signatoremo 3y ago
  We are talking about Mars colonization prediction. Read first before comment? This is the OP: Another reminder that Elon Musk routinely lies about timelines. If Mars colonization had followed the timeline laid out here, we'd be three years from having lots of people on Mars.
  - abenga 3y ago
    And none of the ones you mentioned are talking about Mars colonization. I was just highlighting that holding people just pontificating about possible futures should not be held to the same level of scrutiny as a person saying "my company will do X in y years/months, give me money in advance".
rsynnott 3y ago
There is a difference between saying “whatever will happen in 30 years” and saying “_my company_ will do a thing in 10 years”. That said, these largely don’t sound _particularly_ serious? > Moravec (1988) predicted human-level artificial intelligence in supercomputers by 2010 by extrapolating past trend using a chart I mean, come on.
- signatoremo 3y ago
  The OP asserted that Musk lied when talking about Mars colonization timeline. Are you talking about the same thing? > That said, these largely don’t sound _particularly_ serious? And Musk making prediction about Mars is lying?

elil17 3y ago

I do not hold people who make unjustifiably confident predictions in high regard. Yud and Kurzweil are the ones from your quote who I am more familiar with and they are constantly wrong and constantly overconfident. They've spent decades making wrong predictions, and they keep doing it without updating their methods. To me, that's not making mistakes, that's lying.

signatoremo 3y ago
Lying means they knew their prediction was wrong, but they did it anyway. Are you suggesting Yud and Kurzwell knew they were wrong? What about “updating model”? If only AI can be correctly predicted by models. Don’t you see the contradiction?

abenga 3y ago

Did any of them sell you kits implementing their predictions for thousands of dollars?

signatoremo 3y ago
We are talking about Mars colonization prediction. Read first before comment? This is the OP: Another reminder that Elon Musk routinely lies about timelines. If Mars colonization had followed the timeline laid out here, we'd be three years from having lots of people on Mars.
- abenga 3y ago
  And none of the ones you mentioned are talking about Mars colonization. I was just highlighting that holding people just pontificating about possible futures should not be held to the same level of scrutiny as a person saying "my company will do X in y years/months, give me money in advance".

rsynnott 3y ago

There is a difference between saying “whatever will happen in 30 years” and saying “_my company_ will do a thing in 10 years”. That said, these largely don’t sound _particularly_ serious? > Moravec (1988) predicted human-level artificial intelligence in supercomputers by 2010 by extrapolating past trend using a chart I mean, come on.

signatoremo 3y ago
The OP asserted that Musk lied when talking about Mars colonization timeline. Are you talking about the same thing? > That said, these largely don’t sound _particularly_ serious? And Musk making prediction about Mars is lying?