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> The writing is on the wall though, isn't it? I'm really not sure. Five years ago, I thought that SaaS would completely replace local computing. Now, I'm le

> The writing is on the wall though, isn't it? I'm really not sure. Five years ago, I thought that SaaS would completely replace local computing. Now, I'm less certain. Yes, SaaS is very popular and there are far fewer local applications now. However, there still seems to be some value in local applications because it's thought to be a better end user experience. Look at Slack. It started out as a website, pure browser-based SaaS. Over time they developed a local app, which is basically the same Javascript but packaged up as a local Electron app. This seems to be regarded as superior to the web version for most people. Consider Zoom. There was initially a native client and an equivalent web version. They seem to be actually killing off the web version now -- access to it is a non-default option for the meeting creator, buried on a screen with 100+ meeting settings nobody understands or reads. They apparently want to be a local-only program. As long as there is demand for local apps, people will continue owning general purpose, re-programmable microcomputers. Maybe the vendor can lock you out of some low-level stuff like Intel ME or the BIOS, but these platforms are still allowing people to download a compiler and run their own programs directly on the metal. I'm not sure what direction it will ultimately go, but my hunch is that if it were possible for SaaS to 100% displace local computing, it would have already happened.

smoldesu 3y ago
Perfectly fair response. I think your examples are also good evidence that people like native software, or at least the appearance of a cohesive platform. Apparently "non-native" apps like an SPA or WASM tool will probably turn most normal users off. Good enough native support can make a web client redundant, even if 'native' means Javascript with OS-native controls. To counter that though, I think we have to define SaaS concretely and ask what a more service-driven world would look like. I consider SaaS to not only be the paid components of an OS, but also the "free" services like Google and the App Store. Holistically speaking, our OSes are saturated with services; Find My, Android Notify services, OCSP/Microsoft/Google telemetry, online certificate signing, and even 'assistants' that fail to assist without internet. What more could we possibly put online? It's a bit of a rhetorical conclusion to leave things on. I'll certainly see worse examples in my lifetime, but the status quo is bad enough in my opinion.
- fulladder 3y ago
  I agree with you about the absurd degree of service saturation. I've discovered many things I cannot do without an Internet connection because one trivial step in the process absolutely requires communication with some network endpoint. I found one app where, if you block it's ability to send analytics reports back to Mixpanel, it will run 3 or 5 times but after that refuse to run again until an Internet connection is available. I thought it was absurd since it proves the developers actually considered offline use cases, but decided that they couldn't allow that to go on indefinitely. Anyway, sure, let's leave it there and see where things are in 5 years. It'll be interesting to find out!

smoldesu 3y ago

Perfectly fair response. I think your examples are also good evidence that people like native software, or at least the appearance of a cohesive platform. Apparently "non-native" apps like an SPA or WASM tool will probably turn most normal users off. Good enough native support can make a web client redundant, even if 'native' means Javascript with OS-native controls. To counter that though, I think we have to define SaaS concretely and ask what a more service-driven world would look like. I consider SaaS to not only be the paid components of an OS, but also the "free" services like Google and the App Store. Holistically speaking, our OSes are saturated with services; Find My, Android Notify services, OCSP/Microsoft/Google telemetry, online certificate signing, and even 'assistants' that fail to assist without internet. What more could we possibly put online? It's a bit of a rhetorical conclusion to leave things on. I'll certainly see worse examples in my lifetime, but the status quo is bad enough in my opinion.

fulladder 3y ago
I agree with you about the absurd degree of service saturation. I've discovered many things I cannot do without an Internet connection because one trivial step in the process absolutely requires communication with some network endpoint. I found one app where, if you block it's ability to send analytics reports back to Mixpanel, it will run 3 or 5 times but after that refuse to run again until an Internet connection is available. I thought it was absurd since it proves the developers actually considered offline use cases, but decided that they couldn't allow that to go on indefinitely. Anyway, sure, let's leave it there and see where things are in 5 years. It'll be interesting to find out!