4 ms·

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence ;p

by aatd86 3y ago

maxbond 3y ago
Absence of evidence is most is definitely evidence of absence, even if it isn't absolute proof. Or rather, failing to find evidence that a hypothesis would predict to exist is evidence that the hypothesis is incorrect. You can't absolutely prove a negative, but every time you fail to substantiate evidence for the positive counter claim, your certainty of the negative claim should asymptotically approach 1. And eventually you should be satisfied with the body of evidence and move on to ask different questions. For that matter, I suppose you can't absolutely prove a positive either, for the reasons Descartes described; you can't prove the nonexistence of an omnipresent demon who adjusts your sensory information at just the right time and in just the right ways to make you believe something other than the truth. Still we hazard coming to conclusions and change our minds when the time comes.
- aatd86 3y ago
  You can prove a negative. People always make that mistake but that's not true that you can't prove a negative. In any case, I was being tongue-in-cheek hence the smiley. My statement is still true. That we have no evidence of the existence of aliens doesn't mean they don't exist. We just don't have proofs. I don't know why people are getting so worked up by my little comment. :)
  - maxbond 3y ago
    > You can prove a negative. I'd be interested to hear more. > In any case, I was being tongue-in-cheek hence the smiley. > I don't know why people are getting so worked up by my little comment. :) I'm certainly not getting worked up. You said something and I responded to it, because I thought the topic was interesting and worth responding to. If you're suggesting the egg is on my face for taking you seriously, well okay, but I think that's being disrespectful to yourself.
    - aatd86 3y ago
      Evidence of absence is a proof of a negative. That's possible. Sorry. I must have gotten worked up by what I consider unnecessary downvotes. Don't put my dopamine in jeopardy! :p
      - maxbond 3y ago
        I would agree, but I'm not a radical skeptic.
netsharc 3y ago
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/The_Dragon_in_My_Garage https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/The_Dragon_in_My_Garage I'm always amused that whenever HN talks about UFO/UAP there are actually grown adults here vehemently defending the idea that aliens are trolling us having taken the millions of LY trips...
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
sixstringtheory 3y ago
So we agree there’s an absence of evidence then? The onus is on those claiming existence to present evidence.
- aatd86 3y ago
  That's the headline... :)

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence ;p

by aatd86 3y ago

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence ;p

Absence of evidence is most is definitely evidence of absence, even if it isn't absolute proof. Or rather, failing to find evidence that a hypothesis would predict to exist is evidence that the hypothesis is incorrect. You can't absolutely prove a negative, but every time you fail to substantiate evidence for the positive counter claim, your certainty of the negative claim should asymptotically approach 1. And eventually you should be satisfied with the body of evidence and move on to ask different questions. For that matter, I suppose you can't absolutely prove a positive either, for the reasons Descartes described; you can't prove the nonexistence of an omnipresent demon who adjusts your sensory information at just the right time and in just the right ways to make you believe something other than the truth. Still we hazard coming to conclusions and change our minds when the time comes.

aatd86 3y ago
You can prove a negative. People always make that mistake but that's not true that you can't prove a negative. In any case, I was being tongue-in-cheek hence the smiley. My statement is still true. That we have no evidence of the existence of aliens doesn't mean they don't exist. We just don't have proofs. I don't know why people are getting so worked up by my little comment. :)
- maxbond 3y ago
  > You can prove a negative. I'd be interested to hear more. > In any case, I was being tongue-in-cheek hence the smiley. > I don't know why people are getting so worked up by my little comment. :) I'm certainly not getting worked up. You said something and I responded to it, because I thought the topic was interesting and worth responding to. If you're suggesting the egg is on my face for taking you seriously, well okay, but I think that's being disrespectful to yourself.
  - aatd86 3y ago
    Evidence of absence is a proof of a negative. That's possible. Sorry. I must have gotten worked up by what I consider unnecessary downvotes. Don't put my dopamine in jeopardy! :p
    - maxbond 3y ago
      I would agree, but I'm not a radical skeptic.

netsharc 3y ago

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/The_Dragon_in_My_Garage https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/The_Dragon_in_My_Garage I'm always amused that whenever HN talks about UFO/UAP there are actually grown adults here vehemently defending the idea that aliens are trolling us having taken the millions of LY trips...

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

sixstringtheory 3y ago

So we agree there’s an absence of evidence then? The onus is on those claiming existence to present evidence.

aatd86 3y ago
That's the headline... :)