4 ms·

Sounds similar to the story about the explosives in Beirut harbor. Various parties had been yelling about the huge pile of Ammonium Nitrate in a warehouse for s

Sounds similar to the story about the explosives in Beirut harbor. Various parties had been yelling about the huge pile of Ammonium Nitrate in a warehouse for several years before it went off. I have this impression that the area has not been well governed (for more than a few years a t a time) for millennia; because people in other areas of the world find it convenient that it not be. Living in the crossroads of the world means you get stepped over by everyone i reckon.

dredmorbius 3y ago
Quite. I'd posted my own semi-informed assessment / speculation about the Derna dam failures in a thread yesterday, including the Beirut ammonia nitrate explosion as one of several similar incidents. <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37523055 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37523055> The NY Times piece largely corresponds to what I'd written, filling in numerous details, e.g.: In 1986, a major storm convulsed the region, damaging the dams and shearing soil from the ground. The structures were damaged, Dr. Ashoor said, but again they held. Despite the stresses, repairs were minimal. In 1998, the Libyan government commissioned a study that revealed cracks and fissures in the dams, said Attorney General Sadiq al-Soor. Nearly 10 years later, a Turkish company was finally contracted to repair the dams, the prosecutor added. But the government dragged its feet in paying, and the project got underway only in 2010... Just four months later, in 2011, Libyans marched against Colonel el-Qaddafi’s 42-year grip on power... In the tumult, work on the dam ceased... So, significant damage was incurred thirty-seven years ago, a study was commissioned over a decade later, work didn't commence for another thirteen years, and stopped shortly after, 12 years ago. Meantime, climate has been degrading, affecting both precipitation patterns and geology which amplifies impacts of storms. Technical debt accumulates. And both autocratic and failing states respond poorly to long-term, slowly-evolving risk. As far as who's to blame, I'd suggest that another take is to look around to see what other locations might have similarly-accumulating risks. There's been strong contrast made to disaster response in Libya vs. Morocco, despite some governmental dysfunction in the latter's case. Social cohesion and individual response in Morocco has been called out as specifically effective. Failing states, complex infrastructure, and latent risks devolving from those, seem to me likely elsewhere in North Africa, have already been evidenced in Pakistan (truly massive flooding in 2022), are a factor in Ukraine (another dam failure, this tied to military aggression by Russia). There's a very high-risk dam in Mosul, Iraq, which has made headlines for years. Sri Lanka's economic collapse earlier this year would suggest that infrastructure maintenance may be lapsing. Afghanistan has numerous dams and hydrological projects which are now under the control of the Taliban, who've not proven to be especially capable administrators. Syria is another region with ongoing conflict. I suspect there's considerable rotting infrastructure in Russia. China is a country that's seen absolutely incredible growth and development in the past two decades, though with highly questionable quality and inspections practices. As I'd noted in my earlier comment, even in wealthy, advanced, and reasonably institutionally-sound countries such as the US there've been numerous dam failures and near-failures over the past decade.
slashdev 3y ago
> I have this impression that the area has not been well governed (for more than a few years a t a time) for millennia; because people in other areas of the world find it convenient that it not be. That’s an odd take. They’re a mess largely because of internal factors , not external ones. They were a mess before external interventions. Not saying it helped, but it’s not wholly responsible for the conditions either.
- salt-thrower 3y ago
  Not that odd of a take. It's difficult to have internal stability when you face externally-sourced "reorganizations" every generation or so.
  - azinman2 3y ago
    Internal stability helps prevent external forces.
    - salt-thrower 3y ago
      Plenty of internally stable nations have been toppled by imperialism. It's not really a good metric for how well you can "prevent external forces."
      - slashdev 3y ago
        It helps a lot. Having a strong military with competitive technology and training is also very important. Having strong alliances is even more critical. Or in the modern era, having nukes. Which is why isolated dictatorship countries want them so badly.
        salt-thrower 3y ago
        As someone else already mentioned, this is especially ironic to bring up in the case of Libya because Libya gave up their nukes to appease Western powers. Then were invaded and toppled by those same powers later on.
logicchains 3y ago
Libya was quite well-governed before Gaddafi was ousted, the most developed country in the region.
bell-cot 3y ago
> I have this impression that the area has not been well governed (for more than a few years a t a time) for millennia; because... If you specify millenia, the truth is the opposite: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Libya#Prehistoric_and_Berber_Libya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Libya#Prehistoric_a... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Libya#Phoenician_and_Greek_Libya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Libya#Phoenician_an... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Libya#Achaemenid_and_Ptolemaic_Libya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Libya#Achaemenid_an... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Libya#Roman_Libya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Libya#Roman_Libya But things mostly went to crap ~975 years ago, when the ruling Zirid dynasty picked the wrong side in the Abbasid/Fatimid conflict... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zirid_dynasty#Apogee_in_Ifriqiya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zirid_dynasty#Apogee_in_Ifriqi...
closewith 3y ago
Which area is that? Eastern Libya isn't exactly close to Lebanon.

dredmorbius 3y ago

Quite. I'd posted my own semi-informed assessment / speculation about the Derna dam failures in a thread yesterday, including the Beirut ammonia nitrate explosion as one of several similar incidents. <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37523055 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37523055> The NY Times piece largely corresponds to what I'd written, filling in numerous details, e.g.: In 1986, a major storm convulsed the region, damaging the dams and shearing soil from the ground. The structures were damaged, Dr. Ashoor said, but again they held. Despite the stresses, repairs were minimal. In 1998, the Libyan government commissioned a study that revealed cracks and fissures in the dams, said Attorney General Sadiq al-Soor. Nearly 10 years later, a Turkish company was finally contracted to repair the dams, the prosecutor added. But the government dragged its feet in paying, and the project got underway only in 2010... Just four months later, in 2011, Libyans marched against Colonel el-Qaddafi’s 42-year grip on power... In the tumult, work on the dam ceased... So, significant damage was incurred thirty-seven years ago, a study was commissioned over a decade later, work didn't commence for another thirteen years, and stopped shortly after, 12 years ago. Meantime, climate has been degrading, affecting both precipitation patterns and geology which amplifies impacts of storms. Technical debt accumulates. And both autocratic and failing states respond poorly to long-term, slowly-evolving risk. As far as who's to blame, I'd suggest that another take is to look around to see what other locations might have similarly-accumulating risks. There's been strong contrast made to disaster response in Libya vs. Morocco, despite some governmental dysfunction in the latter's case. Social cohesion and individual response in Morocco has been called out as specifically effective. Failing states, complex infrastructure, and latent risks devolving from those, seem to me likely elsewhere in North Africa, have already been evidenced in Pakistan (truly massive flooding in 2022), are a factor in Ukraine (another dam failure, this tied to military aggression by Russia). There's a very high-risk dam in Mosul, Iraq, which has made headlines for years. Sri Lanka's economic collapse earlier this year would suggest that infrastructure maintenance may be lapsing. Afghanistan has numerous dams and hydrological projects which are now under the control of the Taliban, who've not proven to be especially capable administrators. Syria is another region with ongoing conflict. I suspect there's considerable rotting infrastructure in Russia. China is a country that's seen absolutely incredible growth and development in the past two decades, though with highly questionable quality and inspections practices. As I'd noted in my earlier comment, even in wealthy, advanced, and reasonably institutionally-sound countries such as the US there've been numerous dam failures and near-failures over the past decade.

slashdev 3y ago

> I have this impression that the area has not been well governed (for more than a few years a t a time) for millennia; because people in other areas of the world find it convenient that it not be. That’s an odd take. They’re a mess largely because of internal factors , not external ones. They were a mess before external interventions. Not saying it helped, but it’s not wholly responsible for the conditions either.

salt-thrower 3y ago
Not that odd of a take. It's difficult to have internal stability when you face externally-sourced "reorganizations" every generation or so.
- azinman2 3y ago
  Internal stability helps prevent external forces.
  - salt-thrower 3y ago
    Plenty of internally stable nations have been toppled by imperialism. It's not really a good metric for how well you can "prevent external forces."
    - slashdev 3y ago
      It helps a lot. Having a strong military with competitive technology and training is also very important. Having strong alliances is even more critical. Or in the modern era, having nukes. Which is why isolated dictatorship countries want them so badly.
      - salt-thrower 3y ago
        As someone else already mentioned, this is especially ironic to bring up in the case of Libya because Libya gave up their nukes to appease Western powers. Then were invaded and toppled by those same powers later on.

logicchains 3y ago

Libya was quite well-governed before Gaddafi was ousted, the most developed country in the region.

bell-cot 3y ago

> I have this impression that the area has not been well governed (for more than a few years a t a time) for millennia; because... If you specify millenia, the truth is the opposite: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Libya#Prehistoric_and_Berber_Libya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Libya#Prehistoric_a... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Libya#Phoenician_and_Greek_Libya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Libya#Phoenician_an... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Libya#Achaemenid_and_Ptolemaic_Libya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Libya#Achaemenid_an... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Libya#Roman_Libya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Libya#Roman_Libya But things mostly went to crap ~975 years ago, when the ruling Zirid dynasty picked the wrong side in the Abbasid/Fatimid conflict... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zirid_dynasty#Apogee_in_Ifriqiya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zirid_dynasty#Apogee_in_Ifriqi...

closewith 3y ago

Which area is that? Eastern Libya isn't exactly close to Lebanon.