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Toyota does not live by the timeline of Tesla. It reminds me of the time the Germans became obsessed with diesel whereas Toyota focused on longer term projects.

by _hypx 3y ago

Toyota does not live by the timeline of Tesla. It reminds me of the time the Germans became obsessed with diesel whereas Toyota focused on longer term projects. It did not end well for the German car companies. There's a good chance that Tesla's short-term strategy ends up not mattering.

wlesieutre 3y ago
If the mass adoption of BEV passenger vehicles makes hydrogen fueling stations economically infeasible, then Toyota does live by the timeline of Tesla. https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/two-of-londons-three-hydrogen-filling-stations-will-close-this-month-due-to-insufficient-demand/2-1-1445060 https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/two-of-londons-thr... Hydrogen in the US feels destined for trucking and heavy industry if it sees success anywhere, but hydrogen filling stations at truck stops aren't going to sell a lot of Mirais.
- _hypx 3y ago
  Diesel cars at one point made up the majority of European car sales before collapsing. This is still short-sighted thinking. People really need to stop thinking about current market position and start thinking about the conclusion of each technology. Just like how diesel ultimately led to another fossil fuel burning ICE car, BEVs only lead to heavy and expensive vehicles that are highly dependent on exotic metals. What is the solution to that last problem? It has to be a vehicle that is both zero emissions and doesn’t have weight and resource dependency problems. If you think in that way, you pretty much always end up with a hydrogen powered car of some sort.
  - willmadden 3y ago
    Those metals may not be so exotic after all. https://www.thestreet.com/travel/a-1-5-trillion-discovery-was-just-made-in-the-middle-of-a-nevada-supervolcano https://www.thestreet.com/travel/a-1-5-trillion-discovery-wa...
  - acdha 3y ago
    In the interest of disclosure, do you have some kind of connection to Toyota or the hydrogen industry? You keep saying things about BEVs which aren’t true and downplaying legitimate problems even the people trying to make hydrogen work acknowledge, which is disappointing to see because you’re not only failing to persuade anyone but also not helping the thing you love. Nobody is going to buy a FCEV because some internet stranger trash-talked the alternatives but because it’s better in some way. If you really want hydrogen to succeed, acknowledge real problems and spend your effort fixing them.
    - _hypx 3y ago
      No, I have no such connection. A better question is why there are so many people here who "know" the future of cars, despite having zero experience in the automotive industry? This comes off as one of those cultural fad, since people with minimal knowledge feel the need to lecture others. My position is mostly from the direction of fact checking. People are blatantly BSing about BEVs, and talk about it with zero understanding of real automotive issues. The facts in favor of FCEVs speak for themselves. It is mainly awareness that is the problem.
      - wlesieutre 3y ago
        > It is mainly awareness that is the problem. Awareness and the 30 hour drive to the closest hydrogen fuel station
  - wlesieutre 3y ago
    Does hydrogen really have much weight advantage? The Mirai is 700 lbs heavier than an Avalon, much closer to a Model S. And the hydrogen fueled Hyundai Nexo is closer in weight to a larger Model Y than the similarly sized Tucson.
    - _hypx 3y ago
      The Mirai is a converted Toyota Crown, and is basically a large luxury car. The Nexo is something like 500 lbs lighter than the Y. Also, at the ranges they provide (350-400 miles), BEVs will need to weigh closer to 5000 lbs to match that.

by _hypx 3y ago

wlesieutre 3y ago

If the mass adoption of BEV passenger vehicles makes hydrogen fueling stations economically infeasible, then Toyota does live by the timeline of Tesla. https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/two-of-londons-three-hydrogen-filling-stations-will-close-this-month-due-to-insufficient-demand/2-1-1445060 https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/two-of-londons-thr... Hydrogen in the US feels destined for trucking and heavy industry if it sees success anywhere, but hydrogen filling stations at truck stops aren't going to sell a lot of Mirais.

_hypx 3y ago
Diesel cars at one point made up the majority of European car sales before collapsing. This is still short-sighted thinking. People really need to stop thinking about current market position and start thinking about the conclusion of each technology. Just like how diesel ultimately led to another fossil fuel burning ICE car, BEVs only lead to heavy and expensive vehicles that are highly dependent on exotic metals. What is the solution to that last problem? It has to be a vehicle that is both zero emissions and doesn’t have weight and resource dependency problems. If you think in that way, you pretty much always end up with a hydrogen powered car of some sort.
- willmadden 3y ago
  Those metals may not be so exotic after all. https://www.thestreet.com/travel/a-1-5-trillion-discovery-was-just-made-in-the-middle-of-a-nevada-supervolcano https://www.thestreet.com/travel/a-1-5-trillion-discovery-wa...
- acdha 3y ago
  In the interest of disclosure, do you have some kind of connection to Toyota or the hydrogen industry? You keep saying things about BEVs which aren’t true and downplaying legitimate problems even the people trying to make hydrogen work acknowledge, which is disappointing to see because you’re not only failing to persuade anyone but also not helping the thing you love. Nobody is going to buy a FCEV because some internet stranger trash-talked the alternatives but because it’s better in some way. If you really want hydrogen to succeed, acknowledge real problems and spend your effort fixing them.
  - _hypx 3y ago
    No, I have no such connection. A better question is why there are so many people here who "know" the future of cars, despite having zero experience in the automotive industry? This comes off as one of those cultural fad, since people with minimal knowledge feel the need to lecture others. My position is mostly from the direction of fact checking. People are blatantly BSing about BEVs, and talk about it with zero understanding of real automotive issues. The facts in favor of FCEVs speak for themselves. It is mainly awareness that is the problem.
    - wlesieutre 3y ago
      > It is mainly awareness that is the problem. Awareness and the 30 hour drive to the closest hydrogen fuel station
- wlesieutre 3y ago
  Does hydrogen really have much weight advantage? The Mirai is 700 lbs heavier than an Avalon, much closer to a Model S. And the hydrogen fueled Hyundai Nexo is closer in weight to a larger Model Y than the similarly sized Tucson.
  - _hypx 3y ago
    The Mirai is a converted Toyota Crown, and is basically a large luxury car. The Nexo is something like 500 lbs lighter than the Y. Also, at the ranges they provide (350-400 miles), BEVs will need to weigh closer to 5000 lbs to match that.