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I think you're wrong about the "deflationary spiral" as not being the central argument as to why deflation is dangerous. You can see it featured predominantly i
by bko 3y ago
I think you're wrong about the "deflationary spiral" as not being the central argument as to why deflation is dangerous. You can see it featured predominantly in the Wikipedia for example.
As to no one investing, nominal interest rates are based in part on expectations and the risk free rate. Kind of like two years ago my savings account was paying nothing and now you can get close to 5% risk free just to park your money. So in a deflationary environment you can think of money appreciating in real terms ($1 would buy you more a year from now), so required investment rates would have to adjust.
But it's still true today with technology. If I raise money for an AI startup today I would be using the money to buy GPUs, but if I wait a year from now I'll be able to buy them more cheaply (or buy better ones). But people still raise money to buy quickly deprecating assets. Or if someone wants to start a Laundromat and buys quickly deprecating machines. Or any industry that requires capital investment in a deprecating asset
Of course you have to consider the deprecation of the assets you're buying but the world doesn't stop because prices go down and it's actually fairly healthy. And the benefit would be the opposite of the dangers I listed before about inflation. Imagine everyone getting a raise every year because of technologocal progress. Imagine spending less and less on groceries because we improve tech to deliver cheaper food. Instead that's all masked by money creation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation