4 ms·

Your remarks make sense, but it's only going to be boats and planes if the war stays contained around Taiwan. India and China have been waiting ~60 years for a

by Yoric 3y ago

Your remarks make sense, but it's only going to be boats and planes if the war stays contained around Taiwan. India and China have been waiting ~60 years for a rematch, so there is the distinct possibility of a second front on land. North Korea could also try and attack South Korea for a variety of reasons (either as a distraction for China or taking advantage of the distraction), which could open yet another front. And these are the easy ones – if there is a big showdown, it could domino in a number of directions, each of which would justify the US maintaining a stockpile of ammo. And of course, land and sea warfare share some of the same missiles.

benterix 3y ago
There is one big but in all this, and this is the example of Russia. All autocrats are looking at Russia and how the war played out for them. Not too well, it seems. One can well model and alternative reality where Russia didn't start the war but instead concentrated on using its economic advantage to make Europe more dependent on its gas etc. (it was going quite well!). And it seems a good example to China as to what is more beneficial to do. The Chinese leaders have been quite pragmatic so far, and while one definitely can't say what's actually in their heads, the war is unlikely if they follow logical reasoning.
- verdverm 3y ago
  Applying western thinking to the CCP is a mistake, thinking autocrats follow logical reasoning too. Xi's career goal is the complete re-unification of China and he's getting quite old now, likely his last term (ends in 2027/8 iirc). He'll be making important decisions in the next few years.
- Yoric 3y ago
  From what I understand, there are semi-rational reasons for which Putin might have wanted to attack Ukraine in 2022 and not wait, for instance, 10 more years to ensure that Europe could not wean itself of Russian resources. - Despite Russian propaganda to the contrary, the Russian army is still going to pieces. Yes, there is a stronger professional core now than there used to be during the 90s, but that core is shrinking because the military has difficulties both funding itself, attracting new recruits, and with endemic corruption. Some of the reasons for which it has difficulties attracting new recruits are that the Russian population is growing old very quickly and emigration is attractive to whoever can afford to leave. - Historically, Russian doctrine is to assume that an invasion is coming from the West. Always. History shows of a few places where such an invasion can be stopped fairly easily, if Russia controls them. As it turns out, two of the lynchpins are respsectively in Ukraine in Poland. Since the army is getting weaker and there is a chance that Ukraine could join NATO, if Russia wants to grab control of the lynchpins, it has to attack as early as possible, before the imbalance grows worse. - The fact that PRC is eyeing towards Taiwan means that the US cannot commit too many forces in Ukraine. There is a risk that PRC might end up subjugating Taiwan either semi-peacefully or at least so fast that the US doesn't get a chance to react, in which case the window of opportunity would close.
  - benterix 3y ago
    > There is a risk that PRC might end up subjugating Taiwan . . . so fast that the US doesn't get a chance to react, I think this particular ship has sailed a long time ago. Taiwan is armed to the teeth right know. Everybody knows that if a major war is going to break out, it will be in Taiwan. It's been common knowledge for years. Taiwan didn't lose time and they did their best to prepare. So if China decides to attack, they will win eventually, but will gain only scorched earth and enormous casualties. But, more importantly, they will lose access to Western markets. The EU and USA are already preparing for this - everybody knows it won't be easy, it will be much more difficult than getting rid of Russian gas, but it will be done.

by Yoric 3y ago

benterix 3y ago

There is one big but in all this, and this is the example of Russia. All autocrats are looking at Russia and how the war played out for them. Not too well, it seems. One can well model and alternative reality where Russia didn't start the war but instead concentrated on using its economic advantage to make Europe more dependent on its gas etc. (it was going quite well!). And it seems a good example to China as to what is more beneficial to do. The Chinese leaders have been quite pragmatic so far, and while one definitely can't say what's actually in their heads, the war is unlikely if they follow logical reasoning.

verdverm 3y ago
Applying western thinking to the CCP is a mistake, thinking autocrats follow logical reasoning too. Xi's career goal is the complete re-unification of China and he's getting quite old now, likely his last term (ends in 2027/8 iirc). He'll be making important decisions in the next few years.
Yoric 3y ago
From what I understand, there are semi-rational reasons for which Putin might have wanted to attack Ukraine in 2022 and not wait, for instance, 10 more years to ensure that Europe could not wean itself of Russian resources. - Despite Russian propaganda to the contrary, the Russian army is still going to pieces. Yes, there is a stronger professional core now than there used to be during the 90s, but that core is shrinking because the military has difficulties both funding itself, attracting new recruits, and with endemic corruption. Some of the reasons for which it has difficulties attracting new recruits are that the Russian population is growing old very quickly and emigration is attractive to whoever can afford to leave. - Historically, Russian doctrine is to assume that an invasion is coming from the West. Always. History shows of a few places where such an invasion can be stopped fairly easily, if Russia controls them. As it turns out, two of the lynchpins are respsectively in Ukraine in Poland. Since the army is getting weaker and there is a chance that Ukraine could join NATO, if Russia wants to grab control of the lynchpins, it has to attack as early as possible, before the imbalance grows worse. - The fact that PRC is eyeing towards Taiwan means that the US cannot commit too many forces in Ukraine. There is a risk that PRC might end up subjugating Taiwan either semi-peacefully or at least so fast that the US doesn't get a chance to react, in which case the window of opportunity would close.
- benterix 3y ago
  > There is a risk that PRC might end up subjugating Taiwan . . . so fast that the US doesn't get a chance to react, I think this particular ship has sailed a long time ago. Taiwan is armed to the teeth right know. Everybody knows that if a major war is going to break out, it will be in Taiwan. It's been common knowledge for years. Taiwan didn't lose time and they did their best to prepare. So if China decides to attack, they will win eventually, but will gain only scorched earth and enormous casualties. But, more importantly, they will lose access to Western markets. The EU and USA are already preparing for this - everybody knows it won't be easy, it will be much more difficult than getting rid of Russian gas, but it will be done.