5 ms·

Ukraine: Europe clearly overtakes US, with total commitments now twice as large

nickpp 3y ago
We certainly hope so. It was a bad joke last year that the fighters protecting the whole Europe from fascist hordes were mostly equipped by the USA. Germany's initial offer of 5000 helmets will live in infamy... However, there are certain types of equipment only US can offer, being so technologically ahead of EU. StarLink (with all its controversies) comes to mind.
- exar0815 3y ago
  Somehow, the US seems to have forgotten to get more than "always the same" to the front. Also, the helmet-bullshit is driven by polish anti-german pis-bullshit. Germany delivered PZH2000 and Gepard, as well as being the first with modern Air Defence. France and Britain were the first with Cruise Missiles. Scandinavia was the first with Tanks. Netherlands the first with modern planes. The Blinken-Deescalatin-Crowd in the US which seems to still believe in escalation management and mutual co-operation with Russia. Where are ATACMS, more Patriot, more Bradley, more Abrams, more cluster munitions? The material is there, it's high time!
  - KptMarchewa 3y ago
    I don't agree with bashing Germany, but Poland was first with tanks, delivering over 300 of them starting from April 2022.
  - Yoric 3y ago
    As far as I understand, the US has a strong problem with stockpiles. They can send more material to Ukraine, but they want to have enough to also sustain a war in Taiwan. And it's unclear (at least to me) what the Chinese military doctrine would entail, since China has been mostly at peace since the truce with India. If a war for/around Taiwan ends up being the same kind of high-intensity conflict as the war in Ukraine, it has the potential to engulf the yearly US production of ammo in a few weeks.
    - verdverm 3y ago
      The weapons for a (hopefully not) showdown over Taiwan are going to be very different, just like the entire situations. Shells and tanks in one, boats and planes in the other. There is no easy way to ship tons of material to Taiwan, likely the West will be having to run a Chinese blockade, kind of the opposite of the Cuban missile crisis. Except for drones and phones, war has definitely changed, the fog is dissipating.
      - Yoric 3y ago
        Your remarks make sense, but it's only going to be boats and planes if the war stays contained around Taiwan. India and China have been waiting ~60 years for a rematch, so there is the distinct possibility of a second front on land. North Korea could also try and attack South Korea for a variety of reasons (either as a distraction for China or taking advantage of the distraction), which could open yet another front. And these are the easy ones – if there is a big showdown, it could domino in a number of directions, each of which would justify the US maintaining a stockpile of ammo. And of course, land and sea warfare share some of the same missiles.
        benterix 3y ago
        There is one big but in all this, and this is the example of Russia. All autocrats are looking at Russia and how the war played out for them. Not too well, it seems. One can well model and alternative reality where Russia didn't start the war but instead concentrated on using its economic advantage to make Europe more dependent on its gas etc. (it was going quite well!). And it seems a good example to China as to what is more beneficial to do. The Chinese leaders have been quite pragmatic so far, and while one definitely can't say what's actually in their heads, the war is unlikely if they follow logical reasoning.
        verdverm 3y ago
        Applying western thinking to the CCP is a mistake, thinking autocrats follow logical reasoning too. Xi's career goal is the complete re-unification of China and he's getting quite old now, likely his last term (ends in 2027/8 iirc). He'll be making important decisions in the next few years.
- jamil7 3y ago
  This attitude always misses the context of the US's deep post WW2 involvement in Europe, the formation of NATO, Gladio etc. right up until Ukraine today. The US has it's own interests in Europe and will continue to do so.
- marsa 3y ago
  where does this notion of 'protecting the whole Europe from fascist hordes' come from? has there been any indication that Russia genuinely intended to steamroll Europe if they had taken Ukraine as planned?
  - nickpp 3y ago
    From Putin himself. His speeches in the last 20 years. He was quite upfront with his ambitions: restauration of the last Russian Empire, the Soviet Union. Eastern Europe and ex-USSR republics have been trying to warn the world for quite a while, it's the West who refused to listen. Read Kasparov's "Winter is Coming" book to understand more.
    - marsa 3y ago
      i haven't heard / read his speeches but isn't that just regular political speech? 'we'll make x great again' where they invoke some mythical glorious past x and make grand promises to appease the masses? i'll check the book out, but if there's less speculative stuff like leaked cables, war plans, fact based reporting etc out there i'd be more receptive to the idea that the Russians were genuinely about to blitzkrieg Europe if all went well in Ukraine it just sounds too ridiculous and farfetched
      - jacquesm 3y ago
        That's because it is ridiculous and farfetched. Unfortunately that doesn't stop Putin from trying.
koonsolo 3y ago
It's about time! In my opinion Europe was a bit asleep about the realities of the world. Very grateful to all what the US is doing, but in the end this is a war within Europe, and we must know we can't always count on others to be the main contributor of something that is happening "in our neighbourhood". Also, Europe must really start to consider itself as a world power. Maybe I'm too paranoid, but the democracy within US seems very fragile to me (the 2 party system, all the extreme nutcases that live within). The Ukraine war has shown us how important it is to defend democracy within and outside of our own borders. And that 'power' cannot always be only manifested through diplomacy.
- atdrummond 3y ago
  Ukraine is in no way a functioning democracy.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - koonsolo 3y ago
    Their elections were democratic (if not, please provide some evidence). And secondly, they were well on their way to keep improving and follow the path of the other ex-soviet states that are now part of the EU.
    - atdrummond 3y ago
      As someone who has spent many months in Ukraine since the late 2000s, even the last election was not what I would call “democratic” even if I think the truly preferred candidate won. You would be shocked at how often votes are outright bought by candidates and their supporters and how much strong arming is done to ensure certain areas vote for a specific party. This doesn’t mean I support Russia - I live in a border country (Estonia) myself. [1] https://www.euronews.com/2019/07/20/exhibition-highlights-vote-buying-in-ukraine-as-country-goes-to-polls https://www.euronews.com/2019/07/20/exhibition-highlights-vo... [2] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/10219 https://www.kyivpost.com/post/10219
mcphage 3y ago
This is good news for the US, good news for the EU, and good news for Ukraine. The rare news that is good for everyone. Well, except Russia I suppose—but they could just leave.
- benterix 3y ago
  Not until Putin is alive. We will probably witness a prolonged conflict with varying intensity for several years until he dies. At that point someone in Russia will be able to say this conflict didn't make sense from the very beginning. Currently nobody can say that.
nyanmatt 3y ago
Who has the largest commitment to ending the war?
- koonsolo 3y ago
  What do you mean by 'ending the war'? Ukraine gaining back its sovereignty or (partly) turning into a Russian puppet state?
  - verdverm 3y ago
    The more important question is "How does Ukraine win the peace?" As important as getting Russia out this time is ensuring they don't do it again in 10-20+ years
    - benterix 3y ago
      There is no such thing as a guarantee in this world. Whatever they do, there is always danger Russia will attack again. The most they can do is to make this decision as hard as possible and the consequences for Russia as heavy as possible. But you can't ensure anything.
      - verdverm 3y ago
        USSR/Russia has never attacked NATO, winning the peace by definition means that the prospects for war are very low from many decades if not forever, not zero probability. Ukraine can win the peace without fully removing Russia from current borders. It is up to them to decide what they are willing to trade for that peace, because reclaiming all the land by force will not win the peace, Russia will be even more humiliated and bellicose. --- Consider Vietnam, the US lost the war but won the peace. Vietnam is very pro US Korea is a cease-fire, but largely there again, the peace was won Iraq & Afghanistan, not so much --- I'm particularly fond of listening to Stephen Kotkin on these matters, we is one of the best minds thinking about them, and he has this incredible way of conveying and getting to the core of the matters, past all the superficial talking points. He's truly an artist in this regard https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin
andreygrehov 3y ago
The only valuable thing on this planet is natural resources. Russia has the resources, Europe doesn’t. End of story.
- Mrdarknezz 3y ago
  https://lkab.com/en/press/europes-largest-deposit-of-rare-earth-metals-is-located-in-the-kiruna-area/ https://lkab.com/en/press/europes-largest-deposit-of-rare-ea...
- nickpp 3y ago
  Japan completely destroys your thesis. Resources in the ground are worth exactly ZERO. The technology and people to extract and transform those resources are the most valuable thing on this planet. Both are most abundant in US and slightly less in the EU. Asia not far behind but Russia is not even on the map.
  - andreygrehov 3y ago
    Japan buys natural resources from Russia ignoring all the price caps. This year alone, the US has purchased twice the previous year of uranium from Russia. Europe, as many other countries, depends on Russian resources.
    - nickpp 3y ago
      > buys That is the key word, clearly showing you where the value resides. Lots of countries (in Africa for one) with resources in the ground and starving.
      - andreygrehov 3y ago
        That is correct. I’m not arguing with that. Russia has all the processes to sell their resources efficiently.
        Gud 3y ago

We certainly hope so. It was a bad joke last year that the fighters protecting the whole Europe from fascist hordes were mostly equipped by the USA. Germany's initial offer of 5000 helmets will live in infamy... However, there are certain types of equipment only US can offer, being so technologically ahead of EU. StarLink (with all its controversies) comes to mind.

exar0815 3y ago
Somehow, the US seems to have forgotten to get more than "always the same" to the front. Also, the helmet-bullshit is driven by polish anti-german pis-bullshit. Germany delivered PZH2000 and Gepard, as well as being the first with modern Air Defence. France and Britain were the first with Cruise Missiles. Scandinavia was the first with Tanks. Netherlands the first with modern planes. The Blinken-Deescalatin-Crowd in the US which seems to still believe in escalation management and mutual co-operation with Russia. Where are ATACMS, more Patriot, more Bradley, more Abrams, more cluster munitions? The material is there, it's high time!
- KptMarchewa 3y ago
  I don't agree with bashing Germany, but Poland was first with tanks, delivering over 300 of them starting from April 2022.
- Yoric 3y ago
  As far as I understand, the US has a strong problem with stockpiles. They can send more material to Ukraine, but they want to have enough to also sustain a war in Taiwan. And it's unclear (at least to me) what the Chinese military doctrine would entail, since China has been mostly at peace since the truce with India. If a war for/around Taiwan ends up being the same kind of high-intensity conflict as the war in Ukraine, it has the potential to engulf the yearly US production of ammo in a few weeks.
  - verdverm 3y ago
    The weapons for a (hopefully not) showdown over Taiwan are going to be very different, just like the entire situations. Shells and tanks in one, boats and planes in the other. There is no easy way to ship tons of material to Taiwan, likely the West will be having to run a Chinese blockade, kind of the opposite of the Cuban missile crisis. Except for drones and phones, war has definitely changed, the fog is dissipating.
    - Yoric 3y ago
      Your remarks make sense, but it's only going to be boats and planes if the war stays contained around Taiwan. India and China have been waiting ~60 years for a rematch, so there is the distinct possibility of a second front on land. North Korea could also try and attack South Korea for a variety of reasons (either as a distraction for China or taking advantage of the distraction), which could open yet another front. And these are the easy ones – if there is a big showdown, it could domino in a number of directions, each of which would justify the US maintaining a stockpile of ammo. And of course, land and sea warfare share some of the same missiles.
      - benterix 3y ago
        There is one big but in all this, and this is the example of Russia. All autocrats are looking at Russia and how the war played out for them. Not too well, it seems. One can well model and alternative reality where Russia didn't start the war but instead concentrated on using its economic advantage to make Europe more dependent on its gas etc. (it was going quite well!). And it seems a good example to China as to what is more beneficial to do. The Chinese leaders have been quite pragmatic so far, and while one definitely can't say what's actually in their heads, the war is unlikely if they follow logical reasoning.
        verdverm 3y ago
        Applying western thinking to the CCP is a mistake, thinking autocrats follow logical reasoning too. Xi's career goal is the complete re-unification of China and he's getting quite old now, likely his last term (ends in 2027/8 iirc). He'll be making important decisions in the next few years.
jamil7 3y ago
This attitude always misses the context of the US's deep post WW2 involvement in Europe, the formation of NATO, Gladio etc. right up until Ukraine today. The US has it's own interests in Europe and will continue to do so.
marsa 3y ago
where does this notion of 'protecting the whole Europe from fascist hordes' come from? has there been any indication that Russia genuinely intended to steamroll Europe if they had taken Ukraine as planned?
- nickpp 3y ago
  From Putin himself. His speeches in the last 20 years. He was quite upfront with his ambitions: restauration of the last Russian Empire, the Soviet Union. Eastern Europe and ex-USSR republics have been trying to warn the world for quite a while, it's the West who refused to listen. Read Kasparov's "Winter is Coming" book to understand more.
  - marsa 3y ago
    i haven't heard / read his speeches but isn't that just regular political speech? 'we'll make x great again' where they invoke some mythical glorious past x and make grand promises to appease the masses? i'll check the book out, but if there's less speculative stuff like leaked cables, war plans, fact based reporting etc out there i'd be more receptive to the idea that the Russians were genuinely about to blitzkrieg Europe if all went well in Ukraine it just sounds too ridiculous and farfetched
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      That's because it is ridiculous and farfetched. Unfortunately that doesn't stop Putin from trying.

koonsolo 3y ago

It's about time! In my opinion Europe was a bit asleep about the realities of the world. Very grateful to all what the US is doing, but in the end this is a war within Europe, and we must know we can't always count on others to be the main contributor of something that is happening "in our neighbourhood". Also, Europe must really start to consider itself as a world power. Maybe I'm too paranoid, but the democracy within US seems very fragile to me (the 2 party system, all the extreme nutcases that live within). The Ukraine war has shown us how important it is to defend democracy within and outside of our own borders. And that 'power' cannot always be only manifested through diplomacy.

atdrummond 3y ago
Ukraine is in no way a functioning democracy.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- koonsolo 3y ago
  Their elections were democratic (if not, please provide some evidence). And secondly, they were well on their way to keep improving and follow the path of the other ex-soviet states that are now part of the EU.
  - atdrummond 3y ago
    As someone who has spent many months in Ukraine since the late 2000s, even the last election was not what I would call “democratic” even if I think the truly preferred candidate won. You would be shocked at how often votes are outright bought by candidates and their supporters and how much strong arming is done to ensure certain areas vote for a specific party. This doesn’t mean I support Russia - I live in a border country (Estonia) myself. [1] https://www.euronews.com/2019/07/20/exhibition-highlights-vote-buying-in-ukraine-as-country-goes-to-polls https://www.euronews.com/2019/07/20/exhibition-highlights-vo... [2] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/10219 https://www.kyivpost.com/post/10219

mcphage 3y ago

This is good news for the US, good news for the EU, and good news for Ukraine. The rare news that is good for everyone. Well, except Russia I suppose—but they could just leave.

benterix 3y ago
Not until Putin is alive. We will probably witness a prolonged conflict with varying intensity for several years until he dies. At that point someone in Russia will be able to say this conflict didn't make sense from the very beginning. Currently nobody can say that.

nyanmatt 3y ago

Who has the largest commitment to ending the war?

koonsolo 3y ago
What do you mean by 'ending the war'? Ukraine gaining back its sovereignty or (partly) turning into a Russian puppet state?
- verdverm 3y ago
  The more important question is "How does Ukraine win the peace?" As important as getting Russia out this time is ensuring they don't do it again in 10-20+ years
  - benterix 3y ago
    There is no such thing as a guarantee in this world. Whatever they do, there is always danger Russia will attack again. The most they can do is to make this decision as hard as possible and the consequences for Russia as heavy as possible. But you can't ensure anything.
    - verdverm 3y ago
      USSR/Russia has never attacked NATO, winning the peace by definition means that the prospects for war are very low from many decades if not forever, not zero probability. Ukraine can win the peace without fully removing Russia from current borders. It is up to them to decide what they are willing to trade for that peace, because reclaiming all the land by force will not win the peace, Russia will be even more humiliated and bellicose. --- Consider Vietnam, the US lost the war but won the peace. Vietnam is very pro US Korea is a cease-fire, but largely there again, the peace was won Iraq & Afghanistan, not so much --- I'm particularly fond of listening to Stephen Kotkin on these matters, we is one of the best minds thinking about them, and he has this incredible way of conveying and getting to the core of the matters, past all the superficial talking points. He's truly an artist in this regard https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin

andreygrehov 3y ago

The only valuable thing on this planet is natural resources. Russia has the resources, Europe doesn’t. End of story.

Mrdarknezz 3y ago
https://lkab.com/en/press/europes-largest-deposit-of-rare-earth-metals-is-located-in-the-kiruna-area/ https://lkab.com/en/press/europes-largest-deposit-of-rare-ea...
nickpp 3y ago
Japan completely destroys your thesis. Resources in the ground are worth exactly ZERO. The technology and people to extract and transform those resources are the most valuable thing on this planet. Both are most abundant in US and slightly less in the EU. Asia not far behind but Russia is not even on the map.
- andreygrehov 3y ago
  Japan buys natural resources from Russia ignoring all the price caps. This year alone, the US has purchased twice the previous year of uranium from Russia. Europe, as many other countries, depends on Russian resources.
  - nickpp 3y ago
    > buys That is the key word, clearly showing you where the value resides. Lots of countries (in Africa for one) with resources in the ground and starving.
    - andreygrehov 3y ago
      That is correct. I’m not arguing with that. Russia has all the processes to sell their resources efficiently.
      - Gud 3y ago