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That either involve subsidies or significant sacrifices. The problem is that right now, a hybrid cost around $25k. It takes something like a decade of driving b

by _hypx 3y ago

That either involve subsidies or significant sacrifices. The problem is that right now, a hybrid cost around $25k. It takes something like a decade of driving before you can reach cost parity, and that is assuming you have access to cheap electricity. e-SUVs and trucks are even more non-competitive.

acdha 3y ago
This very much depends on how low your gas prices are subsidized to, and as you admitted the lower maintenance costs are quite helpful. One catalytic concert theft will add a couple of years to that schedule, too.
- _hypx 3y ago
  Gas is usually heavily taxed. Maintenance costs are absurdly exaggerated (especially when compared to the long-term cost of battery replacement) and catalytic convertor theft is covered by insurance.
  - acdha 3y ago
    Gas taxes are about half of what they’re supposed to be to find road maintenance. The rest is subsidized out of general fund revenues. Re: maintenance costs every reputable analyst says that EVs are significantly cheaper throughout the entire lifetime of the vehicle, even when you factor in the higher tire wear and tear. That doesn’t factor in the disruption cost of having to get service, either, which adds up with every extra visit unless you live next to the repair shop. Finally, yes, insurance covers some costs but you’re paying money into that pool. Everyone I know has been complaining about premiums going up due to thefts disproportionately affecting ICE vehicles and a lot of people have been paying money out of pocket trying to harden popular targets like Priuses because parts were in short supply.
    - _hypx 3y ago
      That's a lot of wishful thinking. Certainly, in places like California and Europe, they're much higher than they can be justified. Gas taxes feed into the general fund instead. Maintenance costs are just marketing. The moment you factor in battery replacement costs, the advantage collapses. BEV companies just pretend this never happens. Catalytic convertor theft is not that common. This is more wishful thinking.
      - theshrike79 3y ago
        Do you factor in timing belt costs, clutch costs, oil changes and a full engine overhaul cost to the ICE side? Very very few EV batteries actually need replacing. We have statistics from Nissan and Tesla from over a decade ago and even those ancient batteries have performed better than expected, retaining 80%+ of capacity. Newer batteries are better.
        _hypx 3y ago
        This isn't the 1970s anymore. Very few cars have major repair costs from engine problems. People are just creating an elaborate narrative of cost savings. Insurance cost data doesn't seem to bore this out. BEVs have pretty decent maintenance costs.
        theshrike79 3y ago
        Before switching to hybrids, I literally spend thousands of euros fixing my VW diesel that was worth maybe 10k€. The dual-mass flywheel broke, that was 1k€. Had to do a clutch repair at the same time, 700€. The turbo started acting up, that was around a grand with all the labour. When the turbo was fixed, it clogged the already close to full diesel particulate filter. That would've been 2000€ to replace, but I knew a guy who just emptied the casing and modded the software on the car to think it was still there. Finally a tiny hexagonal thing at the bottom of the engine broke, which prevented any oil from circulating in the engine. That would've been a 2000€ operation. Had my guy do a quick patch job with some bonding agent, sold the car. ...and that's on top of the normal wear and tear + yearly oil changes etc. The car was under 10 years old at the time and 90% of the problems were issues with the overly complex drivetrain with thousands of moving parts, instead of just one like with electric engines. On the hybrids I owned all the issues were in the combustion engine. On my current EV all the problems are unrelated to the drivetrain - currently the AC can't hold its coolant for more than 6 months, haven't found the leak yet.
AtlasBarfed 3y ago
Ford's PHEV Fusion was identical in price for hybrid and non-hybrid drivetrains. in, what, 2010? So ... no. Hybrids aren't necessarily more expensive, they were really only substantially expensive because Toyota dealers price gouged so much for them. If the US Government (Bush was in power, so not a chance of it happening) or California had mandated Hybrid/PHEV for all consumer cars by 2015 back in year 2000, the world would have been in a much better place today. If hybrids had been mandated earlier, we would probably see a semi-electric car with 50-100 miles of all electric range and a compact charging rotary motor range extender. BMW was close but they were also too incompetent to close the gap from their whacko i3 to a really useful long range PHEV. Tesla's per vehicle margin is allegedly the highest in the business, and their cars, while once priced in the "low luxury" segement, are pretty much the same or less than the average cost of a new car, which is at $48,000 right now. Maintenance costs are theoretically much better, you may be right they aren't practically since Tesla build quality is still suspect. These figures are all for previous generation battery economics. High density LFP/LMFP and Sodium Ion batteries will place EV drivetrains fundamentally under the cost of an ICE. These cells, already in mass production, will be half to 1/3 the cost of Nickel Cobalt cells, and essentially the same density at pack level since they don't require extensive cooling/safety systems due to inherent safety. Solid state batteries may be like fusion at this point. The true economic victory for EVs is LFP/Sodium Ion (especially if the roadmap for 250wh/kg LFP and 200 wh/kg sodium ion bears fruit in a couple of years) which are the path to affordable city transportation with no cobalt, nickel, or even lithium. If fusion became "viable" in a sustained manner, it probably couldn't beat nuclear for LCOE cost. Likewise a mass produced solid state battery probably won't be more economical than the new LFP/Sodium Ion batteries for mass market cars. Will be very significant for trucks, short planes, etc though. Of course why hasn't this trickled down yet? Apparently car manufacturers can't as effortlessly switch over as you suggest. You seem very pro-Toyota. I would be very concerned about Toyota because they are 10 years behind and have dinosaurs for executive leadership. Kia/Hyundai have loads of fairly competitive EVs available, but still, crickets from Toyota and split mind syndrome over hydrogen. It's sad that the world leader in car manufacturing and the jewel of the Japanese economy is so asleep at the switch. There's still time, Toyota's engineers are no joke, and they can probably just buy / steal some Chinese EV company's tech and designs, or partner with Nissan. Gas is inherently subsidized. First, nobody pays for the carbon, but I get the impression you aren't a global warming guy. Fine. The IMF says that fossil fuel subsidies were 7 trillion dollars last year. If one was honest, they'd realize that the US Navy and Marines exist as power projection to ensure oil resource access and shipping. Taxation in the US is for road construction, and has nothing to do with any environmental externalities and damage that fossil fuels are causing.
theshrike79 3y ago
I'm finding it really hard to justify even the best hybrid. Gas over here is currently 2€/litre. Looking at my current market rate electricity price, it's 1.15c/kWh. Let's pretend your $25k hybrid uses 3l/100km. That's 6€/100km. And let's take the most power hungry hunk of metal they attached an EV drivetrain into and it needs 25kWh/100km. That's about 0.30€/100km. The electricity price would have to go up 25-30x permanently for an hybrid to be cost effective per driven km. I didn't even take into account the fact that for many EV brands the required maintenance to keep the manufacturer warranty is "swap air filter, update software, maybe fill up the window washing fluid if it's low"

by _hypx 3y ago

acdha 3y ago

This very much depends on how low your gas prices are subsidized to, and as you admitted the lower maintenance costs are quite helpful. One catalytic concert theft will add a couple of years to that schedule, too.

_hypx 3y ago
Gas is usually heavily taxed. Maintenance costs are absurdly exaggerated (especially when compared to the long-term cost of battery replacement) and catalytic convertor theft is covered by insurance.
- acdha 3y ago
  Gas taxes are about half of what they’re supposed to be to find road maintenance. The rest is subsidized out of general fund revenues. Re: maintenance costs every reputable analyst says that EVs are significantly cheaper throughout the entire lifetime of the vehicle, even when you factor in the higher tire wear and tear. That doesn’t factor in the disruption cost of having to get service, either, which adds up with every extra visit unless you live next to the repair shop. Finally, yes, insurance covers some costs but you’re paying money into that pool. Everyone I know has been complaining about premiums going up due to thefts disproportionately affecting ICE vehicles and a lot of people have been paying money out of pocket trying to harden popular targets like Priuses because parts were in short supply.
  - _hypx 3y ago
    That's a lot of wishful thinking. Certainly, in places like California and Europe, they're much higher than they can be justified. Gas taxes feed into the general fund instead. Maintenance costs are just marketing. The moment you factor in battery replacement costs, the advantage collapses. BEV companies just pretend this never happens. Catalytic convertor theft is not that common. This is more wishful thinking.
    - theshrike79 3y ago
      Do you factor in timing belt costs, clutch costs, oil changes and a full engine overhaul cost to the ICE side? Very very few EV batteries actually need replacing. We have statistics from Nissan and Tesla from over a decade ago and even those ancient batteries have performed better than expected, retaining 80%+ of capacity. Newer batteries are better.
      - _hypx 3y ago
        This isn't the 1970s anymore. Very few cars have major repair costs from engine problems. People are just creating an elaborate narrative of cost savings. Insurance cost data doesn't seem to bore this out. BEVs have pretty decent maintenance costs.
        theshrike79 3y ago
        Before switching to hybrids, I literally spend thousands of euros fixing my VW diesel that was worth maybe 10k€. The dual-mass flywheel broke, that was 1k€. Had to do a clutch repair at the same time, 700€. The turbo started acting up, that was around a grand with all the labour. When the turbo was fixed, it clogged the already close to full diesel particulate filter. That would've been 2000€ to replace, but I knew a guy who just emptied the casing and modded the software on the car to think it was still there. Finally a tiny hexagonal thing at the bottom of the engine broke, which prevented any oil from circulating in the engine. That would've been a 2000€ operation. Had my guy do a quick patch job with some bonding agent, sold the car. ...and that's on top of the normal wear and tear + yearly oil changes etc. The car was under 10 years old at the time and 90% of the problems were issues with the overly complex drivetrain with thousands of moving parts, instead of just one like with electric engines. On the hybrids I owned all the issues were in the combustion engine. On my current EV all the problems are unrelated to the drivetrain - currently the AC can't hold its coolant for more than 6 months, haven't found the leak yet.

AtlasBarfed 3y ago

Ford's PHEV Fusion was identical in price for hybrid and non-hybrid drivetrains. in, what, 2010? So ... no. Hybrids aren't necessarily more expensive, they were really only substantially expensive because Toyota dealers price gouged so much for them. If the US Government (Bush was in power, so not a chance of it happening) or California had mandated Hybrid/PHEV for all consumer cars by 2015 back in year 2000, the world would have been in a much better place today. If hybrids had been mandated earlier, we would probably see a semi-electric car with 50-100 miles of all electric range and a compact charging rotary motor range extender. BMW was close but they were also too incompetent to close the gap from their whacko i3 to a really useful long range PHEV. Tesla's per vehicle margin is allegedly the highest in the business, and their cars, while once priced in the "low luxury" segement, are pretty much the same or less than the average cost of a new car, which is at $48,000 right now. Maintenance costs are theoretically much better, you may be right they aren't practically since Tesla build quality is still suspect. These figures are all for previous generation battery economics. High density LFP/LMFP and Sodium Ion batteries will place EV drivetrains fundamentally under the cost of an ICE. These cells, already in mass production, will be half to 1/3 the cost of Nickel Cobalt cells, and essentially the same density at pack level since they don't require extensive cooling/safety systems due to inherent safety. Solid state batteries may be like fusion at this point. The true economic victory for EVs is LFP/Sodium Ion (especially if the roadmap for 250wh/kg LFP and 200 wh/kg sodium ion bears fruit in a couple of years) which are the path to affordable city transportation with no cobalt, nickel, or even lithium. If fusion became "viable" in a sustained manner, it probably couldn't beat nuclear for LCOE cost. Likewise a mass produced solid state battery probably won't be more economical than the new LFP/Sodium Ion batteries for mass market cars. Will be very significant for trucks, short planes, etc though. Of course why hasn't this trickled down yet? Apparently car manufacturers can't as effortlessly switch over as you suggest. You seem very pro-Toyota. I would be very concerned about Toyota because they are 10 years behind and have dinosaurs for executive leadership. Kia/Hyundai have loads of fairly competitive EVs available, but still, crickets from Toyota and split mind syndrome over hydrogen. It's sad that the world leader in car manufacturing and the jewel of the Japanese economy is so asleep at the switch. There's still time, Toyota's engineers are no joke, and they can probably just buy / steal some Chinese EV company's tech and designs, or partner with Nissan. Gas is inherently subsidized. First, nobody pays for the carbon, but I get the impression you aren't a global warming guy. Fine. The IMF says that fossil fuel subsidies were 7 trillion dollars last year. If one was honest, they'd realize that the US Navy and Marines exist as power projection to ensure oil resource access and shipping. Taxation in the US is for road construction, and has nothing to do with any environmental externalities and damage that fossil fuels are causing.

theshrike79 3y ago

I'm finding it really hard to justify even the best hybrid. Gas over here is currently 2€/litre. Looking at my current market rate electricity price, it's 1.15c/kWh. Let's pretend your $25k hybrid uses 3l/100km. That's 6€/100km. And let's take the most power hungry hunk of metal they attached an EV drivetrain into and it needs 25kWh/100km. That's about 0.30€/100km. The electricity price would have to go up 25-30x permanently for an hybrid to be cost effective per driven km. I didn't even take into account the fact that for many EV brands the required maintenance to keep the manufacturer warranty is "swap air filter, update software, maybe fill up the window washing fluid if it's low"