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This is a very myopic viewpoint that ignores that such purchasing decisions aren’t made in a vacuum. People make purchasing decisions based on their environmen

This is a very myopic viewpoint that ignores that such purchasing decisions aren’t made in a vacuum. People make purchasing decisions based on their environment, and that environment is heavily influenced by public policy.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
If you would like to bet [1] $10k to a charity of the winner's choice that mass transit and urban planning is more successful by somewhere between 2030-2035 vs rapidly scaling up EV production, I'll take the EV side of the bet. Let me know. A "gentleman's bet" is fine as well if you'd prefer; I'm signaling accountability with regards to my position with my offer. I am highly confident that EV deployment will be more successful than public policy around urban planning and mass transit over the next decade. China has an enormous amount of state controlled deployment of mass transit [2] and urban planning [3], and it is still one of the world's largest markets for light auto units [4]. For sure, people will continue to urbanize, but they will also buy cars. Sell into reality, not what you wish reality was. [1] https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/ [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_rail_transit_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_rail_transit_in_China [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_planning_in_China#Modern_time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_planning_in_China#Modern... [4] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37308077 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37308077 ("The Chinese car market is about 23 million a year. The United States is about 13 million. China will be soon be shipping more EVs than the US ships cars. That should be enough to get the EV market to a tipping point.")
- comte7092 3y ago
  It’s difficult to take your bet as anything other than disingenuous grandstanding considering the appetite for such public policy changes is pretty weak. It’s impossible to distinguish what is a matter of will and what is a matter of actual possibility. To your points about China. You can’t point to the size of any of chinas markets without normalizing for the size of the population. Yes, Chinas automotive sales are twice that of the US and frowning but their vehicle registrations [0] per capita are less than the quarter of the US total, which is the real relevant number: the actual number of cars on the road. Further, while true that China has engaged in very large scale urban planning and mass transit projects. I wouldn’t say it’s fair to call them some sort of anti car utopians. If anything they limit cars from the standpoint of transit efficiency. They actively promote their own industrial development in the automotive market and consider EVs to be a competitive advantage. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita?wprov=sfti1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_...
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    > People make purchasing decisions based on their environment, and that environment is heavily influenced by public policy. > It’s difficult to take your bet as anything other than disingenuous grandstanding considering the appetite for such public policy changes is pretty weak. It’s impossible to distinguish what is a matter of will and what is a matter of actual possibility. These are both your statements. I've done my best to argue in good faith with a genuine offer to be accountable to my thesis, but you can't both say "public policy will change purchasing decisions" and "appetite for such public policy changes is pretty weak." Either you believe public policy will successfully encourage mass transit and urban planning outcomes that provide superior benefit to vehicles or you don't. I believe EV deployments will be superior based on, as you say, lack of public policy appetite (which is literally the foundation of my thesis; there is no appetite for what you put forth is the superior solution while EV manufacturers have nothing to stop them, there is no speed limit). Appreciate the conversation regardless.
    - comte7092 3y ago
      > you can't both say "public policy will change purchasing decisions" and "appetite for such public policy changes is pretty weak." Fortunately I didn’t say that: > People make purchasing decisions based on their environment, and that environment is heavily influenced by public policy. Your editorializing of public policy has an impact in general, to public policy will move in this direction is doing the heavy lifting here and is putting words in my mouth. Ultimately, policy is a choice, it isn’t something that exists as a force of nature that we can’t control. While I share your pessimism that anything will get done, that pessimism can’t be left to become a self fulfilling prophecy.

toomuchtodo 3y ago

If you would like to bet [1] $10k to a charity of the winner's choice that mass transit and urban planning is more successful by somewhere between 2030-2035 vs rapidly scaling up EV production, I'll take the EV side of the bet. Let me know. A "gentleman's bet" is fine as well if you'd prefer; I'm signaling accountability with regards to my position with my offer. I am highly confident that EV deployment will be more successful than public policy around urban planning and mass transit over the next decade. China has an enormous amount of state controlled deployment of mass transit [2] and urban planning [3], and it is still one of the world's largest markets for light auto units [4]. For sure, people will continue to urbanize, but they will also buy cars. Sell into reality, not what you wish reality was. [1] https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/ [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_rail_transit_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_rail_transit_in_China [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_planning_in_China#Modern_time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_planning_in_China#Modern... [4] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37308077 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37308077 ("The Chinese car market is about 23 million a year. The United States is about 13 million. China will be soon be shipping more EVs than the US ships cars. That should be enough to get the EV market to a tipping point.")

comte7092 3y ago
It’s difficult to take your bet as anything other than disingenuous grandstanding considering the appetite for such public policy changes is pretty weak. It’s impossible to distinguish what is a matter of will and what is a matter of actual possibility. To your points about China. You can’t point to the size of any of chinas markets without normalizing for the size of the population. Yes, Chinas automotive sales are twice that of the US and frowning but their vehicle registrations [0] per capita are less than the quarter of the US total, which is the real relevant number: the actual number of cars on the road. Further, while true that China has engaged in very large scale urban planning and mass transit projects. I wouldn’t say it’s fair to call them some sort of anti car utopians. If anything they limit cars from the standpoint of transit efficiency. They actively promote their own industrial development in the automotive market and consider EVs to be a competitive advantage. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita?wprov=sfti1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_...
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  > People make purchasing decisions based on their environment, and that environment is heavily influenced by public policy. > It’s difficult to take your bet as anything other than disingenuous grandstanding considering the appetite for such public policy changes is pretty weak. It’s impossible to distinguish what is a matter of will and what is a matter of actual possibility. These are both your statements. I've done my best to argue in good faith with a genuine offer to be accountable to my thesis, but you can't both say "public policy will change purchasing decisions" and "appetite for such public policy changes is pretty weak." Either you believe public policy will successfully encourage mass transit and urban planning outcomes that provide superior benefit to vehicles or you don't. I believe EV deployments will be superior based on, as you say, lack of public policy appetite (which is literally the foundation of my thesis; there is no appetite for what you put forth is the superior solution while EV manufacturers have nothing to stop them, there is no speed limit). Appreciate the conversation regardless.
  - comte7092 3y ago
    > you can't both say "public policy will change purchasing decisions" and "appetite for such public policy changes is pretty weak." Fortunately I didn’t say that: > People make purchasing decisions based on their environment, and that environment is heavily influenced by public policy. Your editorializing of public policy has an impact in general, to public policy will move in this direction is doing the heavy lifting here and is putting words in my mouth. Ultimately, policy is a choice, it isn’t something that exists as a force of nature that we can’t control. While I share your pessimism that anything will get done, that pessimism can’t be left to become a self fulfilling prophecy.