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The one thing I don’t see people take into account is a globally declining birth rate, very rapid declining birth rate. Fewer humans will mean less consumption,
by BirAdam 3y ago
The one thing I don’t see people take into account is a globally declining birth rate, very rapid declining birth rate. Fewer humans will mean less consumption, and therefore lower demand and less production. This could reverse many effects within the lifetimes of millennials and GenZ.
- tuatoru 3y agoYes, fertility is below replacement in 183 out of 191 countries. True. But it depends. IPAT: impact = population times affluence times technology. Take away the 700 million people with the highest incomes (10%), then about 90% of the impact is gone. I doubt that population decline will be that swift or deep, though. Technology won't save us either. If it isn't deployed commercially at billion-dollar scale now, it won't scale up enough in four decades to make much of a difference.
- BirAdam 3y agoBut… in four decades the largest and wealthiest generation ever will be long dead.
- toomuchtodo 3y agoPopulation momentum means the total human population will top out at 9-10 billion people before rapidly declining after 2100.