3 ms·

A prediction made seven years into the future, for a service which didn't exist then, only off by an order of magnitude doesn't sound too bad imo.

sergiosgc 3y ago
Sporting a growth rate that, if it holds, means the prediction was off only by a couple of years.
b59831 3y ago
[dead]
xoa 3y ago
Additionally, holy crap has a lot changed in that time. Falcon 9 didn't complete its first landing until the very end of 2015 with Flight 20. What's now routine and key to their costs is a feat less than a decade old. SpaceX was still talking about the Mars transport/BFR at that, which were very different in a variety of ways from the Starship SS/SH system we see now. What they've got now feels a lot more practical and sustainable long term, moving to steel for example was a great change. So as far as long term forward looking plans go I'd agree that execution here was pretty darn good, and they've got a very clear roadmap for the next 5 years as well with full size v2 sats waiting in the wings and Starship proceeding along at a solid clip. It was a curiously negative feeling piece particularly for the WSJ. How many companies execute ambitious highly capital intensive global scale infrastructure rollouts using never been done combos of tech at never been done price points and pull it off like that?
arbuge 3y ago
Quite correct. Less than 2 years off from that timeline if it continues with its current growth rate.
pavon 3y ago
60 million people live in rural areas in the US, over 40 million of those already have broadband at home[1], and less than 2 million people subscribed to satellite internet before Starlink launched[2]. His projection of 20 million subscribers would have meant that literally every single rural individual who didn't already have broadband would sign up for Starlink within a couple years of being available. Okay, that's not entirely fair because Starlink does business in more than just the US, but still, that was an unrealistically aggressive projection even 7 years ago. I think Starlink is doing great, but Musk's projections are notoriously bad, and there is no reason to defend them. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/08/19/some-digital-divides-persist-between-rural-urban-and-suburban-america/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/08/19/some-digi... [2] https://web.archive.org/web/20181020011542/https://www.strongerwithsatellite.com/pages/Satellite-Internet.cfm https://web.archive.org/web/20181020011542/https://www.stron...
- fallingknife 3y ago
  This is misleading for several reasons. The FCC defines broadband as 25/3 mbit up/down, which is not fast. Also it doesn't take into account latency which is a major problem with geostationary satellites. So plenty of those 40 million with "broadband" are going to want to switch to better service anyway. Your first article concedes as much: > Even though rural areas are more wired today than in the past, current infrastructure does not support consistently dependable broadband access in many rural areas. This lack of reliable high-speed internet access has come to the forefront of discussions about navigating remote work and school during the coronavirus pandemic. Your second link states that there are 1.7 million satellite internet subscribers in the US. But Starlink already has that many subscribers, so it is clear that the market size is much more than just existing satellite users.
  - pavon 3y ago
    Even if 100% of rural customers were dissatisfied with their existing service, projecting that you will capture a third of the potential market within a few years of providing service is unrealistically aggressive.
- inemesitaffia 3y ago
  The world is a big place. With billions of people

sergiosgc 3y ago

Sporting a growth rate that, if it holds, means the prediction was off only by a couple of years.

b59831 3y ago

[dead]

xoa 3y ago

Additionally, holy crap has a lot changed in that time. Falcon 9 didn't complete its first landing until the very end of 2015 with Flight 20. What's now routine and key to their costs is a feat less than a decade old. SpaceX was still talking about the Mars transport/BFR at that, which were very different in a variety of ways from the Starship SS/SH system we see now. What they've got now feels a lot more practical and sustainable long term, moving to steel for example was a great change. So as far as long term forward looking plans go I'd agree that execution here was pretty darn good, and they've got a very clear roadmap for the next 5 years as well with full size v2 sats waiting in the wings and Starship proceeding along at a solid clip. It was a curiously negative feeling piece particularly for the WSJ. How many companies execute ambitious highly capital intensive global scale infrastructure rollouts using never been done combos of tech at never been done price points and pull it off like that?

arbuge 3y ago

Quite correct. Less than 2 years off from that timeline if it continues with its current growth rate.

pavon 3y ago

60 million people live in rural areas in the US, over 40 million of those already have broadband at home[1], and less than 2 million people subscribed to satellite internet before Starlink launched[2]. His projection of 20 million subscribers would have meant that literally every single rural individual who didn't already have broadband would sign up for Starlink within a couple years of being available. Okay, that's not entirely fair because Starlink does business in more than just the US, but still, that was an unrealistically aggressive projection even 7 years ago. I think Starlink is doing great, but Musk's projections are notoriously bad, and there is no reason to defend them. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/08/19/some-digital-divides-persist-between-rural-urban-and-suburban-america/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/08/19/some-digi... [2] https://web.archive.org/web/20181020011542/https://www.strongerwithsatellite.com/pages/Satellite-Internet.cfm https://web.archive.org/web/20181020011542/https://www.stron...

fallingknife 3y ago
This is misleading for several reasons. The FCC defines broadband as 25/3 mbit up/down, which is not fast. Also it doesn't take into account latency which is a major problem with geostationary satellites. So plenty of those 40 million with "broadband" are going to want to switch to better service anyway. Your first article concedes as much: > Even though rural areas are more wired today than in the past, current infrastructure does not support consistently dependable broadband access in many rural areas. This lack of reliable high-speed internet access has come to the forefront of discussions about navigating remote work and school during the coronavirus pandemic. Your second link states that there are 1.7 million satellite internet subscribers in the US. But Starlink already has that many subscribers, so it is clear that the market size is much more than just existing satellite users.
- pavon 3y ago
  Even if 100% of rural customers were dissatisfied with their existing service, projecting that you will capture a third of the potential market within a few years of providing service is unrealistically aggressive.
inemesitaffia 3y ago
The world is a big place. With billions of people