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> It seems borderline silly to suggest we can't observe an economic trend and react to it. Oh, yeah, we can react. The same way you start betting on red after
by josu 3y ago
> It seems borderline silly to suggest we can't observe an economic trend and react to it.
Oh, yeah, we can react. The same way you start betting on red after you see 3 reds in a row.
- slg 3y agoTrends don't happen in roulette. Each round is independent (assuming the equipment is properly calibrated and there isn't any cheating). That isn't true with the economy. For example, unemployment numbers in one month are strongly correlated with the numbers in both the previous and next month. This is obvious just looking at a graph of the unemployment rate[1]. I can say with a high level of confidence that the rate for September will be in the 3.5%-4% range because it has been that way since 2022. Can you honestly look at that data and tell me it is as random as roulette? [1] - https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-une...
- josu 3y agoI'm doing a terrible job at trying to communicate the Austrian School of thought, apologies. But if you are really interested in the matter I would suggest reading Hayek, or any other Austrian. These couple of articles are a good starting point: - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_calculation_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_calculation_problem - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_school_of_economics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_school_of_economics